B1G standings per
@ELA 's simulation after the November 9 games:
- 7-0 Michigan, beat Ore, @tOSU on 11/30, DNP PSU and UNL
- 6-0 Penn State, beat tOSU, DNP M, Ore, UNL
- 6-1 Oregon, beat tOSU, lost to M, DNP PSU and UNL
- 5-1 Nebraska, lost to tOSU, DNP M, PSU, and Ore
- 4-2 Ohio State, beat UNL, lost to PSU and Ore, M on 11/30,
I believe that the three-loss teams (Wash, USC, RU, NU, UW) are mathematically eliminated because they can do no better than 6-3. Thus, they can't catch Michigan and the best they could do is to tie PSU and Oregon. Plus they'd also need UNL to lose at least twice and tOSU to lose at least once.
For all intents and purposes tOSU is out as well as I'll get to.
Remaining games:
- 7-0 Michigan: vsNU, attOSU
- 6-0 Penn State: atPU, atMN, vsUMD
- 6-1 Oregon: atUW, vsUWash
- 5-1 Nebraska: atUSC, vsUW, atIowa
- 4-2 Ohio State: atNU, vsIU, vsM
I think Michigan would clinch a spot by winning either of their two remaining games because they'd win a tie with Oregon and I *THINK* they'd also win a tie with Nebraska based on record against the next best team.
Penn State's tiebreaker situation isn't quite as good as Michigan's but they also don't have any scary opponents left. In this simulation Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland are 1-5, 3-4, and 0-6 respectively so the Nittany Lions would effectively be a lock as well.
Oregon has a more difficult remaining schedule with a trip to 3-3 Wisconsin and a home rivalry game against 4-3 Washington but even if they won both they'd need help. Ohio State taking down Michigan would theoretically get the Ducks into a tie with Michigan but they lost to the Wolverines so that doesn't really help. They'd need Michigan to lose out or PSU to suffer a bad upset.
Nebraska's remaining schedule is rough and they'd need all kinds of help.
I *THINK* Ohio State is mathematically in it but that is academic. As a practical matter a Michigan team that got to 7-0 wouldn't lose to a 3-3 Northwestern team at home and a 6-0 PSU wouldn't lose out to three bottom-feeders so the Buckeyes need to win out and plan for a road CFP opener.
