IMHO, there are four practical contenders:
- 5-0/8-0 #1 Oregon
- 5-0/8-0 #3 Penn State
- 5-0/8-0 #13 Indiana
- 3-1/6-1 #4 Ohio State
None of them control their own destiny mathematically but I think that all but Indiana control their own destiny as a practical matter.
Mathematically:
The three undefeated teams do not play each other so for each of them winning out still leaves the possibility of a 3-way tie. That tie would be resolved by cumulative league record of league opponents (SOS) and at present that heavily favors Oregon and Penn State over Indiana but there are no guarantees.
Ohio State obviously can't go undefeated but winning out would give PSU and IU each a loss. Ohio State would win a three-way tie with IU and PSU but, theoretically, Oregon could lose a game thus creating a 4-way tie at 8-1 between the Ducks, Lions, Hoosiers, and Buckeyes. In that case the H2H2H2H records would be:
- 1-0 Oregon (beat tOSU)
- 2-1 Ohio State (beat PSU and IU, lost to Ore)
- 0-1 Penn State (lost to tOSU)
- 0-1 Indiana (lost to tOSU)
Based on that one would *THINK* that the CG would be Oregon/tOSU but one would be wrong. The B1G rules stipulate that H2H only prevails if one team defeated all of the others and none of them did so we'd move to the next tiebreaker, SoS. This HEAVILY favors Ohio State so, as a practical matter, the Buckeyes control their own destiny because they would win pretty much any plausible tie.
The rest:
There are five 2-loss teams (IL, IA, M, MN, UW) and they are all mathematically in the race but as a practical matter they would all need an extremely unlikely amount of chaos to have a shot.
