Not enough time to read through this like I would normally like, but this is the time I had to get out so will post as is.
Teams with 1st Loss Week 13:
Indiana
Army
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 13:
Brigham Young
Teams with 1st Win Week 13:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Week 6: 36.8% (7 of 19)
Week 7: 8.3% (1 of 12)
Week 8: 9.1% (1 of 11)
Week 9: 20% (2 of 10)
Week 10: 37.5% (3 of 8)
Week 11: 20% (1 of 5)
Week 12: 25% (1 of 4)
Week 13: 66.7% (2 of 3)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 1
-Only Oregon can finish the season unbeaten.
Maximum Number of Games between Undefeated Teams in the Regular Season: 0
-We have no chances for an undefeated match-up left either in the regular or post-season. Our last game between undefeated teams I believe was Ohio State vs. Oregon back in week 7.
Week 13 Thoughts:
-I added the two loss column this week. I probably should have done that a couple weeks ago, but I don't really want to be tracking that many extra so this will probably become a late season things going forward (although will monitor individual teams still).
-The SEC had several upsets that effect both the conference and the rest of the country. Georgia was done with their conference slate last week and not the most likely to make the championship. After the day though, they weren't only likely to, they were locked into it. Alabama losing to Oklahoma and Ole Miss to Florida leaves both schools with three losses and out of the conference race. Texas A&M benefits from the tie-breakers here despite their own loss to Auburn and their 3rd conference (and 4th overall) loss. The winner of the Texas/Texas A&M game will go to the SEC Championship against Georgia.
Looking at the playoff spots, Georgia is pretty much locked in as long as they win one of their last two, Tennessee is a lock if they beat Vanderbilt, and Texas is most likely in win or lose next week. Ole Miss is likely out barring tons of chaos now. Alabama or South Carolina with three losses might slide in (the latter after a big win vs. Clemson this week), but would need some judgment calls going their way from the committee. Their primary rival for the last spot for the moment looks like the potential 2-loss ACC non-champs. There is a small chance Indiana might end up lower, but I don't find the odds of that very large. Beyond that, South Carolina and Alabama are looking for upsets of other teams above them this week. Meanwhile, Texas A&M can still win the SEC outright, but that is likely the only path in for them. A 4-loss Aggie team is not likely making it otherwise.
-The Big 12 is now very exciting at the top, but had too much parity in it and is almost certainly is a single bid conference now because of it. With BYU losing to Arizona State and Colorado losing to Kansas, the Big 12 now has 4 teams atop the standing in Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado and the only game between the 4 was Arizona State's win last week vs. BYU. This does lead to an exciting end of the year. For the most part, going into the last week, the order for the Big 12 Championship Game is : Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU, Colorado. If they all win, the game will be Arizona State vs. Iowa State, if one of those two lose, BYU slides in, and if two lose, Colorado slides in. The only 2 exceptions involve only BYU losing among those 4 along with Texas Tech beating West Virginia. Both of those push Colorado in and either Arizona State or Iowa State out. In those situations a) if we also have Baylor beating Kansas and Cincinnati beating TCU we get Colorado vs. Iowa State or b) otherwise we get Colorado vs. Arizona State.
The other thing that the Big 12 will be on the lookout for is Boise State. The Big 12 does not want to be the 5th champ in and the 12 overall seed. It's possible a Big 12 champ (especially Arizona State who will rise a decent bit this week) will be ahead of Boise State once all things are added in. That said, Boise State is probably more likely than not to finish ahead of the eventual Big 12 champ so the conference would love the Broncos to lose one of their last two.
-Ohio State beat Indiana to keep to keep control of their path to Indianapolis to face Oregon. If they beat Michigan this week, the Buckeyes are in the Big Ten Championship Game. If they lose, Penn State is in with a win. If both lose, Indiana gets in with a win. For the playoff, all 4 are likely in with wins. All except Indiana might be able to afford a loss this week, but there would be sweating waiting on the committee (outside of Oregon).
-In the ACC, SMU is locked into the Championship. If Miami beats Syracuse this week, they will joining them. Otherwise it will be SMU vs. Clemson. The losses in the SEC helps the ACC's chances at two in. A 2-loss ACC runner up might beat out an Alabama type teams for the last spot even without upsets this week. Clemson might do it without making the championship game if they beat South Carolina this week. With an ideal upset or two, you could even see the ACC get three in.
-Notre Dame is one win away from the playoffs after their win vs. Army. If they win at USC this week, they'll be in. Lose, and they'll likely be out opening a spot for someone else. More on Army below.
-Group of 5 Races:
-Boise State will host the Mountain West Championship game and controls their destiny for the playoff now after Army's loss to Notre Dame. They didn't look strong against a 2-win Wyoming though and have both Oregon State and the Mountain West Championship to go though so this is definitely not locked up at all. For the other side of the game, UNLV is now in a position to get in thanks to Colorado State's loss to Fresno State last week. If UNLV wins this week and beats Boise State, they stand a chance at taking the playoff spot themselves. The question is if UNLV could beat out an American champ. Without another loss, I would say unlikely to Tulane (currently ahead of them in rankings) and lean against with Army too. They really need the eventual American champ to lose this week.
-In the American, Army losing took away control of the playoff spot, but if Tulane and Army win this week, the winner is likely in with a Boise State loss. There is a small chance UNLV could beat them out, but I would lean against.
-Louisiana and Marshall control their destiny in the Sun Belt. If they lose, Georgia Southern and South Alabama can slip in to the championship game.
-Bowling Green, Ohio University, and Miami sit atop the MAC and Bowling Green and Miami play this week. Ohio will join the winner of that game with a win themselves. Buffalo could theoretically slide in if all breaks right.
-In Conference USA, Jacksonville State is now locked in. Liberty, Western Kentucky, and Sam Houston are tied in 2nd. Liberty controls their destiny (in haste, I definitely under-counted them last week). If they lose, Western Kentucky is next in. If both lose, Sam Houston can make it.
Week 14 Thoughts:
-Hard to believe we are to modern rivalry week.
Early Week Games:
Winless Kent State at Buffalo (Tuesday): This is Kent State's last chance at a win. They are 21 point underdogs.
2-loss Memphis at 2-loss Tulane (Thursday): Tulane is in the American Championship regardless, but a win or loss matters a lot. Win and they will likely beat out a potential 2-loss UNLV Mountain West champ. Lose and they probably won't. They are two touchdown favorites.
Friday Games:
Oregon State at 1-loss Boise State (Friday): A future conference match-up and a big deal. The American and Big 12 really want Boise State to lose this game. The Broncos stay in control of their playoff destiny with a win and also threaten to take one of the top 4 seeds. They are 19.5 point favorites.
Georgia Tech at 2-loss Georgia (Friday): Georgia is likely locked in the playoff with a win. A loss would likely leave them needing to win the SEC Championship to get in. They are almost 20-point favorites.
Oklahoma State at Colorado (Friday): Colorado needs to win and then get help to stay in the Big 12 race.
Minnesota at Wisconsin (Friday): I mention this game only because they have the best trophy in sports with a giant axe. Wisconsin needs for bowl eligibility.
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green (Friday): The winner is in the MAC title game. Spread is close.
Ball State vs. Ohio (Friday): The Bobcats are in the MAC Championship with a win.
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss (Friday): I don't think Ole Miss can make it back in, but with a lot of chaos, maybe a chance.
2-loss Liberty vs. Sam Houston (Friday): Liberty is in the Conference USA Championship with a win.
Saturday Games:
Michigan at 1-loss Ohio State: The Buckeyes are locks for the playoff with a win and make the Big Ten Championship. Lose and the door opens to Penn State (or maybe Indiana). Ohio State has lost the last three to Michigan. They are over 20 point favorites.
2-loss Tennessee at Vanderbilt: The Vols are in the playoff with a win. Vandy has upset teams this year though. Tennessee is a 10.5 point favorite.
1-loss Notre Dame at USC: Notre Dame is definitely not a lock for the playoff with a loss here, but with a win have a decent seed. They are a little over a touchdown favorite.
South Carolina at 2-loss Clemson: Both need decent bit of help, but neither 100% out of playoff race. Clemson could get to ACC Championship with Syracuse help. Even without that, an at-large is possible for both with some help (more paths for Clemson though).
1-loss Miami at Syracuse: Miami wins and they are in the ACC Championship and stand a chance at the playoff win or lose that. If they lose, Clemson goes in and odds of being left out completely skyrocket. They are 10.5 point favorites.
Cal at 1-loss SMU: SMU is in the ACC Championship regardless, but stand no chance of an at-large unless they win this game. They are 13.5 point favorites.
2-loss Arizona State at Arizona: Battle for the territorial cup. Arizona State goes to the Big 12 Championship with a win in almost every scenario. They are 9 point favorites.
Washington at undefeated Oregon: Oregon is likely in either way, but the Big Ten is looking at #1 vs. #2 match-up if Ohio State and Oregon both win. Oregon still remembers two losses vs. Washington last year and Washington would love to end Oregon's perfect season. Oregon is almost a 20 point favorite.
1-loss Texas at Texas A&M: The winner goes to the SEC Championship. The Aggies must win to get a shot at the playoff. Texas is a 6 point favorite.
Nevada at 2-loss UNLV: UNLV is still in the playoff hunt. They need to win out and have one of the American contenders probably lose a game before winning the American title.
Kansas State at 2-loss Iowa State: Iowa State most likely in the Big 12 Championship with a win. They are only 2.5 point favorites.
UTSA at 1-loss Army: Army can still make the playoff with a Boise State loss and winning out. They are 7.5 point favorites here. UNLV will be rooting for UTSA.
Houston at 2-loss BYU: If BYU wins, they are in the Big 12 Championship with an Iowa State or Arizona State loss. They are 12.5 point favorites.
Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky: Jacksonville State is already in the Conference USA Championship. Western Kentucky can join them with a win and a Liberty loss. Western Kentucky is a point and a half favorite.
2-loss Louisiana-Lafayette at Louisiana-Monroe and Texas State at South Alabama (Friday): Louisiana-Lafayette is in the Sun Belt Championship with a win and they are almost 10 point favorites. South Alabama can get in with a Louisiana-Lafayette loss. South Alabama is a 1 point favorite.
Marshall at James Madison and App State at Georgia Southern: Marshall is in the Sun Belt Championship with a win, but James Madison is a 3.5 point favorite. Georgia Southern is a slight favorite in their game.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: American: 0, Big Ten: 1, total: 1
Oregon
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 3, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 1, independents: 1, total 9
Southern Methodist
Boise State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Texas
Penn State
Miami (FL)
Indiana
Army
2-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 0, total: 11
Clemson
Tulane
Memphis
Arizona State
Brigham Young
Iowa State
Liberty
UNLV
Georgia
Tennessee
Louisiana-Lafayette
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC: 1, total: 1
Kent State
