Teams with 1st Loss Week 12:
Brigham Young
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 12:
Tennessee
Washington State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Teams with 1st Win Week 12:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Week 6: 36.8% (7 of 19)
Week 7: 8.3% (1 of 12)
Week 8: 9.1% (1 of 11)
Week 9: 20% (2 of 10)
Week 10: 37.5% (3 of 8)
Week 11: 20% (1 of 5)
Week 12: 25% (1 of 4)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 2
-We are down one this week as we lost our last undefeated in the Big 12. Our remaining possibilities for undefeateds at the end of the regular season are Indiana/Oregon and Army.
Maximum Number of Games between Undefeated Teams in the Regular Season: 1
-Our only remaining possibility for an undefeated match-up in the regular season is if Oregon and Indiana win out and play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Week 12 Thoughts:
-And then there were three. With BYU losing to Kansas, we are down to just three undefeated teams. Two of our three undefeated teams will be significant underdogs this week. I am pretty sure I have never seen that late in the regular season (outside of maybe conference championships at some point; even there I'd guess not).
-BYU losing in the Big 12 means the conference can only get two in by having a two loss team get selected as an at large. The best way for that is still probably for Colorado to narrowly beat BYU after both win till then (SMU winning the ACC would help as BYU beat SMU). The odds of two at this point look fairly small though. For the conference race as a whole, we now have Colorado and BYU with 1 conference loss and Arizona State and Iowa State each with two conference losses. Arizona State plays BYU next week to keep things especially interesting. Two of those 4 teams are pretty much certain to be in the Big 12 Championship.
-The top of the ACC looked like it could shake up this week with Boston College moving late vs. SMU and Pitt leading Clemson, but the favorites both pulled it out. Clemson is done with conference play at 7-1, but needs Miami to lose 1 or SMU to probably lose two. Like with the Big 12, two in the playoff is looking tougher, but a narrow loss for Miami or SMU in the ACC Championship might get them in with some help.
-Wisconsin threatened to remove Oregon from the unbeaten ranks, but the Ducks held on in Madison and stay undefeated. Win against rival Washington to end the season (after a bye next week) and they are in the Big Ten Championship. Lose, and they likely still are, but tiebreakers could get complicated if 4 teams are in it. Ohio State and Indiana both control their destiny going into next week too and Penn State needs Ohio State to beat Indiana, but lose to Michigan. All four ranked Big Ten teams are playoff contenders and all four could well make it. None are locks yet though (although Oregon is close).
-The two in the SEC who were hanging around the conference race without too much respect both lost this week as Mizzou and LSU were removed from the SEC race. Georgia beat Tennessee to stay in the race and move Tennessee down into the large mix of 2 conference loss teams. Only Texas and Texas A&M remain with a single conference loss. As they play each other, a two conference loss team will make the championship game. The current two loss teams are Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. Who would win that spot among two loss teams depends on how the next few weeks go, but Alabama has an advantage.
-Washington State lost their 2nd game this week. They were ranked #18 by the committee. I think they would have been on the outside looking in even winning out, but there was a small chance they could have slid in with a real lot of chaos.
-Group of 5 Race:
-Louisiana-Lafayette lost to South Alabama this week. That removes the last 1-loss team from the Sun Belt. The conference has a major uphill climb to make it in now. They are probably pretty much out of it outside of extreme chaos in the next few weeks.
-Boise State started rough, but came back to win and will likely stay the highest Group of 5 conference program this week. The team currently with control of their destiny to face them in the Mountain West Championship is 3-loss Colorado State. The conference would probably prefer UNLV as the rebels stand a better chance at making the playoff with a win, but Colorado State is undefeated in conference and does not play UNLV or Boise State (although has a tough game with Fresno State this week).
-The American Championship is set as Tulane vs. Army after this weeks games. Army controls their destiny. Should they lose to Notre Dame this week, Boise State will control their destiny, but the winner of this game probably has the next best odds to make the playoff.
-Outside of playoff considerations, but Conference USA is likely down to Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky, and Sam Houston. Sam Houston and Jacksonville State play this week. In the MAC, Miami (OH), Ohio, and Kent State are tied atop the standings. Miami and Bowling Green still have to play.
Week 13 Thoughts:
-We have two games between undefeated and 1-loss teams.
Undefeated Indiana at 1-loss Ohio State: Both control their destiny for the Big Ten. That Indiana is in this position is amazing. The loser of this game wants the game to be close still as playoff implications are still on the line and a blowout would hurt. OSU is a 12 point favorite.
Undefeated Army at 1-loss Notre Dame: Notre Dame makes the CFP as an at large if they win out. Army controls their destiny for the Group of 5 autobid with a win. The Mountain West wants Notre Dame winning this big. The American wants Army (even if later beat by Tulane). Any team on the edge of the playoff wants Army knocking Notre Dame out. The Irish are 17 point favorites.
Akron at winless Kent State (Tuesday): This is Kent State's best chance at a win. They are a 10 point underdog.
1-loss SMU at Virginia: SMU controls their ACC destiny. They could probably drop one, but if they are making the ACC Championship, the conference wants them as highly ranked as possible. They are 10 point favorites. Clemson needs them or Miami out of the way.
1-loss Penn State at Minnesota: Penn State could still get to the Big Ten Championship with some help. Without that though, they are still well positioned for the playoff if they win out. Minnesota has played well this year though. Penn State is a 12.5 point favorite.
1-loss BYU at Arizona State: This is huge for Big 12 title implications. Arizona State would be tied for 2nd with a win. With a win, BYU stays with just one conference loss atop the standings and removes one of the two teams a game below them. The Big 12's small chances at two in depends on BYU winning till the Big 12 Championship. They are 3.5 point underdogs.
Colorado at Kansas: Kansas came close to upsetting Kansas State and then did upset Iowa State and BYU. Winning out gets them a bowl after a rough start to the season. Colorado is playing for the Big 12 title, but probably can't take a loss. The Big 12 would love Colorado and all the attention Dion Sanders gets them in the Big 12 Championship. Colorado is a 2.5 point favorite.
Iowa State at Utah: Iowa State is still in the Big 12 race with a win. They are 6.5 point favorites. Colorado, BYU, and Arizona State would like Utah to pull this off.
Ole Miss at Florida: Ole Miss is in playoff position running, but can't let up. Others looking to get in need to root against an almost 10 point favorite Rebel team.
Alabama at Oklahoma: Alabama in decent spot to make SEC Championship if they keep winning. They are two touchdown favorites. They would likely be out of the playoff race with a loss.
Texas A&M at Auburn. If Texas A&M wins this, the UT/A&M game decides who goes to the SEC Championship. That would be a good renewal of the game, but the Aggies are only 2.5 point favorites here. If Texas A&M loses, their playoff hopes are also at risk at this would be their 3rd overall loss (two in conference and to Notre Dame).
Ohio at Toledo (Wednesday): OU has 1 conference loss. Toledo has two. Toledo is a small favorite.
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State: Sam Houston has 1 conference loss. Jacksonville State has none. Jacksonville State makes the championship game with a win. A Sam Houston win keeps the racing going between the two and Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky at Liberty: Liberty is unlikely in the Conference USA race at this point (not completely out though), but can play spoiler as a small underdog. Western Kentucky has one conference loss.
Fresno State at Colorado State: Should Boise State lose the Mountain West, UNLV is the lot stronger contender than Colorado State. Colorado State though controls their Mountain West destiny. They are 3 point underdogs here.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: American: 1, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 2, total: 3
Indiana
Oregon
Army
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 0, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 0, independents: 1, total 8
Southern Methodist
Boise State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Texas
Penn State
Miami (FL)
Brigham Young
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC: 1, total: 1
Kent State
