2024-2025 B1G Basketball Thread

[FearlessF]

it happens when  you're a #15 seed

[MarqHusker]

Some kid at Norris HS bagged w 70 footer to win a NE State Tourney game.    

We had a kid in our dorm from Norris.

[GopherRock]

Fran ending his Iowa career with an ejwction feels right.

I dont blame him, Iowa is getting a horrible whistle

I'm more surprised that he made it as long as he did without having a grand mal seizure on the sideline. 

[medinabuckeye1]

No upsets at all today, the top eight seeds play each other on Friday. 

[medinabuckeye1]

The BTT has been a disaster for the B1G's bubble teams.  Ohio State hurt themselves by losing to a bad Iowa team while Indiana hurt themselves by losing badly to a good Oregon team.  In Lunardi's latest they are now the first (IU) and second (tOSU) teams out.  Both teams went into the BTT projected to be in.  

Lunardi's page says that he has nine B1G teams in but I only count eight so I think he forgot to adjust when he knocked IU out.  Anyway, the current projection is:

• #2 Michigan State
• #4 Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue
• #5 Oregon
• #6 Michigan, UCLA, Illinois

Literally every 4/5/12/13 pod has a B1G team in it.  As per usual there are too many Western sites so he has Wisconsin and Purdue getting shipped out to Seattle and Denver respectively.  Maryland (Providence) and Oregon (Seattle) get MUCH more favorable locations.  Despite being a #5 seed the Ducks are projected to be in a pod in Seattle where they would have a substantial home court advantage over #4 Clemson, #12 UCSD, and #13 Akron.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Today's Slate (all BTN):

• #1 MSU -5.5 vs #8 Oregon, noon
• #4 UCLA +1.5 vs #5 UW, 2:30
• #2 Maryland -1.5 vs #7 Illinois, 6:30
• #3 Michigan +2.5 vs #6 Purdue, 9pm

Not to be too unoriginal but frankly I like all the favorites today.  

[ELA]

Today's Slate (all BTN):

• #1 MSU -5.5 vs #8 Oregon, noon
• #4 UCLA +1.5 vs #5 UW, 2:30
• #2 Maryland -1.5 vs #7 Illinois, 6:30
• #3 Michigan +2.5 vs #6 Purdue, 9pm

Not to be too unoriginal but frankly I like all the favorites today. 

I think the teams are bunched enough, that I think the teams that played yesterday all win.  That Game 2 vs. Game 1 advantage I think is real, and they are all top 25 teams right?

[ELA]

Updated seeds.  Green moving up, red moving down

NCAA

• 1 - Auburn, Houston, Duke, Florida
• 2 - Alabama, Tennessee, MICHIGAN STATE, Texas Tech
• 3 - St. John's, Kentucky, WISCONSIN, Iowa State
• 4 - Clemson, MARYLAND, Louisville, BYU
• 5 - Texas A&M, Arizona, OREGON, PURDUE
• 6 - Ole Miss, Marquette, Saint Mary's, Kansas
• 7 - MICHIGAN, Missouri, UCLA, ILLINOIS
• 8 - Gonzaga, Memphis, Connecticut, Creighton
• 9 - Mississippi State, New Mexico, Georgia, Baylor
• 10 - North Carolina, Oklahoma, Utah State, Drake
• 11 - VCU, Xavier, Vanderbilt, UC San Diego
• 12 - Arkansas/San Diego State, West Virginia/Texas, McNeese, Liberty
• 13 - High Point, Yale, Akron, Grand Canyon
• 14 - UNC Wilmington, Troy, Lipscomb, Montana
• 15 - Robert Morris, Norfolk State, Bryant, Omaha
• 16 - Wofford, Merrimack, American/St. Francis(PA), SIU Edwardsville/Jackson State

Texas replaces INDIANA

NIT

• 1 - INDIANA, SMU, OHIO STATE, Colorado State
• 2 - Boise State, Wake Forest, UC Irvine, San Francisco
• 3 - Cincinnati, NEBRASKA, Villanova, Dayton
• 4 - North Texas, NORTHWESTERN, George Mason, Central Florida
• 5 - IOWA, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, PENN STATE
• 6 - TCU, Stanford, Utah Valley, Chattanooga
• 7 - Northern Colorado, South Alabama, Central Connecticut, Towson
• 8 - Quinnipiac, SE Missouri State, Southern, Bucknell

TCU replaces USC

[847badgerfan]

I'd really like Wisconsin to be given a weekend in Milwaukee. I think they get it with a win over UCLA today.

[medinabuckeye1]

I'd really like Wisconsin to be given a weekend in Milwaukee. I think they get it with a win over UCLA today.

I doubt it.  As I pointed out above:

As per usual there are too many Western sites

This is a problem for #4 seeds from the EST and CST pretty much EVERY year.  In Lunardi's projections:
One seed led pods:

• Lexington - Auburn
• Raleigh - Dook
• Raleigh - Florida (Raleigh now booked)
• Wichita - Houston

Two seed led pods:

• Cleveland - Michigan State
• Cleveland - Tennessee (Cleveland now booked)
• Wichita - Texas Tech (Wichita now booked)
• Lexington - Alabama (Lexington now booked)

Looks good so far because neither Milwaukee pod has been booked but note the problem.  Raleigh, Cleveland, Wichita, and Lexington are fully booked.  What is left after the top-8 teams is:

• Milwaukee
• Milwaukee
• Providence
• Providence
• Denver
• Denver
• Seattle
• Seattle

The two in Milwaukee are available as are two on the East Coast and the other four spots are out West.  Then come the three-seeds:

• Denver - aTm
• Milwaukee - ISU
• Milwaukee - Kentucky
• Providence - St. Johns

So now all that is left for the 4/5/12/13 pods are a spot in Providence, a spot in Denver, and two spots in Seattle:

• Seattle - Clemson
• Providence - Maryland
• Seattle - Wisconsin
• Denver - Purdue

My guess is that in order to get the Milwaukee site, Wisconsin would have to get up to the #3 seed line.  I do think, however, that a win today gives them a pretty good shot at Denver which would be a lot better than Seattle. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I think the teams are bunched enough, that I think the teams that played yesterday all win.  That Game 2 vs. Game 1 advantage I think is real, and they are all top 25 teams right?

We've tracked this for years and I agree that Game 2 vs Game 1 has historically been an advantage but it didn't help anybody yesterday.  Granted, maybe that is just because Northwestern, USC, and Iowa simply weren't good enough to take advantage.  

Your own team is the one least likely to get bit by the Game 2 vs Game 1 advantage just because they are the best of the Game 1 teams and playing the worst of the Game 2 teams but we both know that #1's have lost plenty of games in similar circumstances.  I also probably doesn't help MSU that Oregon had a pretty easy time of it with Indiana so it isn't like they are coming in physically and emotionally drained.  

I never miss an opportunity to share this:

https://youtu.be/MVLWsHjVu9Y?si=JtK-fjjWklyMIG24

Ohio State fans love celebrating this buzzer-beater three pointer by Evan Turner to break Michigan's heart but it should be pointed out that Ohio State NEVER should have needed a buzzer-beating 3-pointer in this game.  Note that there is a "7" next to Ohio State on the score at the bottom of the screen and no number next to Michigan.  Ohio State was #7 in the Nation and #1 in the league.  Michigan was unranked and #8 in the league and this is only one of many examples of the 8/9 winner giving the #1 seed a LOT more trouble than you would expect.  

[847badgerfan]

I think UW can get to a 3 with a win today. That stupid PSU loss really hurt. Bad.

[SFBadger96]

Badgers need to start finding the hoop again. FT percentage is amazing, but their FG percentage in the last few games has been abysmal. Gotta hit the shots from the floor.

[medinabuckeye1]

I think the teams are bunched enough, that I think the teams that played yesterday all win.  That Game 2 vs. Game 1 advantage I think is real, and they are all top 25 teams right?

We originally identified this phenomenon with the #6 seed nearly always knocking off the #3 seed in the old (11-team) BTT.  There were, however, a few contributing factors that should be considered:

• The Thursday game for #6 was #11, the worst team in the league.  In a league with 11 teams there was almost always at least one that was just flat awful.  Consequently, the #6 seed only ever lost once to the #11 seed and most of those games were glorified scrimmages/walk-throughs.  #6 had the ideal situation:  They had a "game" on Thursday to get warmed up/acclimated but the "game" was usually so easy that they didn't really break a sweat nor expend much physical or emotional energy on it.  
• #6 and #3 typically aren't separated by all that much.  Looking at this year's standings, for example, Purdue is the #6 seed at 13-7 while Michigan is the #3 seed at 14-6.  Purdue is favored because they are probably a better team in spite of Michigan's better record.  In the two games between the two this year Purdue won by 27 in West Lafayette and Michigan won by two in Ann Arbor.  In their loss in Ann Arbor, Purdue had a three-point shot in the air at the buzzer that would have won it.  Alter that ONE shot and Purdue is 14-6 while Michigan is 13-7.  
• In the 11-team era, the #6 seed was sometimes a bubble team with a LOT to play for while the #3 is in a spot where the BTT makes almost no difference.  They are safely in the Tournament with no risk of falling out but also far enough down to have no chance at a #1 seed so they are just playing for seeding in something like the 2-5 range, who cares.