2024-2025 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Michigan's +/- vs. record just got a lot crazier

9-3 in their past 12, with a +/- of -36

I came here to post about this because it is nuts.

We were ready ti pretty much stick a fork in Illinois and it looked like Michigan was smooth sailing to a league title and then . . .

The Illini waltzed out of Crisler with a 20 point win.

Say what?

[bayareabadger]

I came here to post about this because it is nuts.

We were ready ti pretty much stick a fork in Illinois and it looked like Michigan was smooth sailing to a league title and then . . .

The Illini waltzed out of Crisler with a 20 point win.

Say what?

I think UW is 9-3 in its last 12 and maybe plus-100 or so. 

[ELA]

Don't get involved in a land war in Russia, or a close game with Michigan

[ELA]

I think UW is 9-3 in its last 12 and maybe plus-100 or so.

Tonje is the POTY though right? 

Kind of funny.   Good player at CSU, so Missouri pays him.  He gets hurt, Missouri sucks.  Wisconsin pays him more.  He wins an award, Wisconsin and Missouri both get better? 

Id be curious as to whether you could do efficiency based on guys who started at your school?  Probably not.  It would be easy to do ppg or mpg.  I assume Duke is tops, based on their freshmen.  MSU might be #2 among contenders

[medinabuckeye1]

What is a good basketball season for your team?

Others here have referenced this but I'm going to say it more bluntly, I view the season and the tournament as almost completely separate for this purpose.  

Look at Ohio State this year.  The Buckeyes are currently 8-10/16-13 and squarely on the bubble.  In Lunardi's latest the Buckeyes are one of the "Last Four In" playing Texas in Dayton for the right to go to Providence to play Clemson and if they win that, Michigan (or theoretically High Point) for a S16 berth.  

That is NOT a good season.  It isn't terrible but it is NOT good.  Here is the thing.  Suppose the Buckeyes were to get exactly that path and beat:

• 12 Texas in the play-in
• 5 Clemson in the first real round
• 4 Michigan in the R32
• 1 Auburn in the S16
• 2 Iowa State in the E8

Thus, the Buckeyes would get to the Final Four which is GREAT!  That still wouldn't make 2024/25 a "good season" because this is still a team that:

• Went .500 (at best) in the league, and
• Was not in the League title hunt, and
• Barely got into the Tournament.  

Now obviously making the F4 would be a GREAT tournament and even better with a win over Michigan plus wins over those other schools but that is a great Tournament, not a great Season.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Checking in on the races:

Illinois and Penn State have already played 19 games and are off this week.  The other 16 teams have each played 18 games and have one this week.  Then all 18 teams play next weekend.  So here is where we are:

• 15-3 Michigan State:  @IA 3/6, vsM 3/9
• 14-4 Michigan:  vsUMD 3/5, @MSU 3/9
• 12-6 Maryland:  @M 3/5, vsNU 3/8
• 12-6 Wisconsin:  @MN 3/5, vsPSU 3/8
• 12-6 Purdue:  vsRU 3/4, @IL 3/7
• 11-7 UCLA:  @NU 3/3, vsUSC 3/8
• 11-8 Illinois: vsPU 3/7 
• 10-8 Oregon:  vsIU 3/4, @UDub 3/9
• 9-9 Indiana:  @Ore 3/4, vstOSU 3/8
• 8-10 Ohio State:  vsUNL 3/4, @IU 3/8
• 7-11 Rutgers:  @PU 3/4, vsMN 3/9
• 7-11 Nebraska:  @tOSU 3/4, vsIA 3/9
• 7-11 Northwestern:  vsUCLA 3/3, @UMD 3/8
• 7-11 Minnesota:  vsUW 3/5, @RU 3/9
• 6-12 Southern California:  vsUDub 3/5, @UCLA 3/8
• 6-12 Iowa:  vsMSU 3/6, @UNL 3/9
• 5-14 Penn State:  @UW 3/8
• 4-14 Washington:  @USC 3/5, vsOre 3/9

Michigan State is REALLY close to locking up a league title.  They clinch at least a share with either a Maryland win in Ann Arbor on Wednesday or a win in Iowa City on Thursday.  They would clinch an outright title this week with both of those.  

Michigan still controls their own destiny to at least a share of the league title and there is still a mathematical chance of an outright title for them.  That is the upside.  The downside is that if they lose out they could find themselves in a four-way tie for the last three double-bye's.  I'm not going to do the legwork to figure out who would win that tie but if Michigan loses it, they would find themselves playing on Thursday.  Unlikely and it might be impossible but stay tuned.  

Maryland, Wisconsin, and Purdue are in a three-way tie for the last two double byes.  They are two game down to Michigan (see above), one game up on UCLA, 1.5 games up on Illinois, and two games up on Oregon so, at least in theory, all of the above-mentioned teams are in the mix for those last double-byes or not.  

Indiana is currently in 9th place so they would be the last single-bye but there are three teams within two games ahead of them and five teams within two games behind them so this is very much in flux.  It is interesting that Indiana's last two games are against the teams immediately ahead (Ore) and behind (tOSU) them in the standings so basically anything can happen.  

As of right now the last spot in the tournament is a two-way tie between USC and Iowa.  The Trojans would win that tie based on their H2H win over Iowa in SoCal so as of now Iowa, Penn State, and Washington would be out while USC would be the last team in.  

[ELA]

In the 11 team era, the seedings mattered, now its a crapshoot.  You might be better off facing the 5 seed than the 10 seed

[ELA]

Its funny how preseason expectations work.  Two years ago, MSU was a bubble team, who got in as a 10 seed, won 2 games and lost in the Sweet 16.  So the expectations were that a Sweet 16 team, who returned everyone should be a top 5 team.  Except they were like the #40 team, who won an essential tossup, and then pulled one upset, that just happened to be in March 

They had no pros, which is why they returned everyone.  And then they basically had the same season 

They graduated their best 3 players, but none were pros.  So no expectations this year.  But they have had two kids vastly overachieve, so now they are probably a 2 seed.  I think in the transfer portal era we need to reevaluate what having returning starters means.  It's not necessarily a bad thing, but it's also no longer necessarily a good thing.  MSU took a leap this year because Jace Richardson came in and looks like a one and done, rather than at least a 3 year player (he was around the #50 recruit), and Coen Carr, who was a 3/4* kid, who didnt project to be a pro, is now also likely gone after this year

[bayareabadger]

Its funny how preseason expectations work.  Two years ago, MSU was a bubble team, who got in as a 10 seed, won 2 games and lost in the Sweet 16.  So the expectations were that a Sweet 16 team, who returned everyone should be a top 5 team.  Except they were like the #40 team, who won an essential tossup, and then pulled one upset, that just happened to be in March

They had no pros, which is why they returned everyone.  And then they basically had the same season

They graduated their best 3 players, but none were pros.  So no expectations this year.  But they have had two kids vastly overachieve, so now they are probably a 2 seed.  I think in the transfer portal era we need to reevaluate what having returning starters means.  It's not necessarily a bad thing, but it's also no longer necessarily a good thing.  MSU took a leap this year because Jace Richardson came in and looks like a one and done, rather than at least a 3 year player (he was around the #50 recruit), and Coen Carr, who was a 3/4* kid, who didnt project to be a pro, is now also likely gone after this year

I think the key has to be that the returning starters are pretty good. MSU had a lot of guys who were tapped out, maybe lower ceilinged and one guy who just never put it together. 

On the flip side, I honestly think this MSU team isn't exactly 2 seed good as much as Izzo is coaching the ever living hell out of them. Like just maximizing things by making sure everyone is mostly doing the couple of things they do well. 

[bayareabadger]

2 more wins is the ceiling

Since this post, MSU has:

Won at Illinois by 14
Beat Purdue by 9
Won at Michigan by 13
Won at Maryland by the skin of their nuts
Comfortably beat Wisconsin at home with a great defensive day
Taken firm control of the Big Ten race. 

So if you need the best sandbags, take a trip to Pittsburgh. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

I won't say sweet 16, which is the most stereotypical floor to declare.

BTW I wouldn't ever call S16 a "floor". 

As I said, for Purdue, making the tournament is the expectation--i.e. the floor. It is what defines a minimally acceptable season. Fail to do that one year and questions start getting asked. Fail to do that two consecutive years and your seat is going to be toasty, and you may not be allowed to sit in it. 

It also bakes in some assumptions. While Purdue being in the B1G regular season championship hunt is important, trying to get the BTT double bye is important, and trying to win the BTT is important, if they succeed in any of those three things they're making the tournament. So making the tournament is a good proxy for the regular season having gone acceptably well. 

Now, if they were several games out of the B1G regular season hunt, don't win the BTT, and get into the tournament is a 5-11 seed because it's a bit of a "down year"? Now, getting to the second weekend is overperforming. And if that's the case, then getting to the second weekend turns a "meh" but acceptable season into a "good" season.

Likewise, if they're right in the hunt and either win the B1G regular season and/or BTT, they're going to be a top 4 seed. At that point, not getting to the second weekend is underperforming and turns a good season into "meh" but acceptable, but getting to the second weekend means that even if they don't go farther, it was still a pretty "good" season overall. They maybe get to hang a B1G banner even if they can't hang a Final Four banner. 

So that's why I said a S16 is the metric for a "good" season... NOT that it's the "floor". 

[bayareabadger]

I was thinking back on that thing ELA said. I’m not sure I would’ve traded Tyler Wahl for any player on that preseason top-5 team. 

It’s not like Tyler Wahl was a great player. He did certain things well. He was a bit undercut by his roster. But I still think I wouldn’t have traded him for Walker, Hoggard or Hall (maybe the best version of Hall?). Like that team was No. 4, and no one made you say “that’s a dude,” outside Hoggard sometimes. 

Shoot, Akins is still there and I watched my team play him yesterday and he didn’t pop all that much. He hit four 3s and if you said “what did Akins do in that game,” I’d say, lemme check the box score. 

[ELA]

3/3 SOR/KenPom bracket.

Going to stick with the NIT projections for now, because the conference agreements with the NIT and CBC will take a year to sort out.  I believe the top 2 Big Ten teams left out (Nebraska and Northwestern) HAVE to go to the CBC, per the tv agreements.  Then the 3rd team (Iowa) will get an NIT invite, but don't have to accept.  But I'll just keep to the pre 2024 NIT format, because we know what that means as far as projections

NCAA
SOUTH

• #1 Auburn vs. #16 SE Missouri State
• #8 UCLA vs. #9 Creighton
• #5 Texas A&M vs. #12 West Virginia/OHIO STATE
• #4 Louisville vs. #13 High Point
• #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Samford
• #6 OREGON vs. #11 Utah State
• #7 Memphis vs. #10 Baylor
• #2 Tennessee vs. #15 Norfolk State

WEST

• #1 Houston vs. #16 Southern/Bucknell
• #8 Vanderbilt vs. #9 New Mexico
• #5 Saint Mary’s vs. #12 INDIANA/Oklahoma
• #4 Missouri vs. #13 Grand Canyon
• #3 WISCONSIN vs. #14 Arkansas State
• #6 Arizona vs. #11 Drake
• #7 Mississippi State vs. #10 San Diego State
• #2 Iowa State vs. #15 Northern Colorado

EAST

• #1 Duke vs. #16 Bryant
• #8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Connecticut
• #5 MICHIGAN vs. #12 Liberty
• #4 Kentucky vs. #13 Yale
• #3 St. John’s vs. #14 UNC Wilmington
• #6 MARYLAND vs. #11 UC San Diego
• #7 Kansas vs. #10 North Carolina
• #2 Florida vs. #15 Central Connecticut

MIDWEST

• #1 Alabama vs. #16 Milwaukee
• #8 ILLINOIS vs. #9 Georgia
• #5 PURDUE vs. #12 McNeese
• #4 Marquette vs. #13 Akron
• #3 Clemson vs. #14 Lipscomb
• #6 Ole Miss vs. #11 Xavier
• #7 BYU vs. #10 VCU
• #2 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #15 South Dakota State

NIT
FAYETTEVILLE

• #1 Arkansas vs. #8 Omaha
• #4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Arizona State
• #3 Villanova vs. #6 Santa Clara
• #2 NEBRASKA vs. #7 Chattanooga

DALLAS

• #1 SMU vs. #8 South Alabama
• #4 TCU vs. #5 George Mason
• #3 Texas vs. #6 RUTGERS
• #2 North Texas vs. #7 Utah Valley

CINCINNATI

• #1 Cincinnati vs. #8 Quinnipiac
• #4 UC Irvine vs. #5 Dayton
• #3 Colorado State vs. #6 IOWA
• #2 Wake Forest vs. #7 Robert Morris

BOISE

• #1 Boise State vs. #8 Towson
• #4 Utah vs. #5 Stanford
• #3 NORTHWESTERN vs. #6 Central Florida
• #2 San Francisco vs. #7 Jacksonville State

All Big Ten Teams

• Michigan State - #2 seed
• Wisconsin - #3 seed
• Michigan - dropped from #4 seed to #5 seed
• Purdue - moved up from #6 seed to #5 seed
• Maryland - dropped from #5 seed to #6 seed
• Oregon - moved up from #7 seed to #6 seed
• UCLA - dropped from #7 seed to #8 seed
• Illinois - moved up from #9 seed to #8 seed
• Ohio State - moved up from NIT 1 seed to #12 seed (Play-In)
• Indiana - moved up from NIT 2 seed to #12 seed (Play-In)
• Nebraska - dropped from NIT 1 seed to NIT 2 seed
• Northwestern - moved up from NIT 5 seed to NIT 3 seed
• Iowa - dropped from NIT 5 seed to NIT 6 seed
• Rutgers - moved up to NIT 6 seed
• USC - dropped to #2 team out of NIT
• Penn State - #6 team out of NIT
• Minnesota - #7 team out of NIT
• Washington - dropped to #17 team out of NIT

[medinabuckeye1]

• #12 West Virginia/OHIO STATE

This might set a record for attendance in Dayton.  Both West Virginia and Ohio State are reasonably close so both fanbases would likely be pretty well represented.