2024-2025 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

I believe this is 2 possessions or less

[FearlessF]

cheaters!

[ELA]

4 games this weekend between teams that are Top 3 seeds in Lunardi's latest bracket.  5 if you expand it out to games between Top 4 seeds

1:00 - (1S) Auburn at (3S) Kentucky
4:00 - (1M) Alabama at (2E) Tennessee
8:30 - (3M) Texas A&M at (2W) Florida
9:00 - (4M) Arizona at (2S) Iowa State
1:30(Sun) - (3W) Wisconsin at (2M) Michigan State

[medinabuckeye1]

I believe this is 2 possessions or less

This is just an unbelievable level of being good or lucky (probably both) in close games.  Note that:

Fully one-third of the league is exactly .500 in these close games:

• 4-4 IU
• 4-4 tOSU
• 4-4 UDub
• 3-3 MSU
• 3-3 IL
• 2-2 PU

Then another third are either 1 game from .500 or would flip to the other side of .500 by changing just one game:

• 3-2 RU would be 2-3 
• 4-3 IA would be 3-4
• 4-3 MN would be 3-4
• 3-5 UNL would be 4-4
• 2-4 UW would be 3-3
• 2-4 USC would be 3-3

That only leaves the final third or six teams but four of them are just two games from .500 or the other side of .500:

• 6-2 UCLA would be 5-3 if you flipped one game, 4-4 if you flipped two
• 6-3 Oregon would be 5-4 if you flipped one game, 4-5 if you flipped two
• 3-6 Maryland would be 4-5 if you flipped one game, 5-4 if you flipped two

Then there is PSU who would need to flip four games to get to the other side of .500.  

Then there is Michigan who would have to flip five games to get to .500.  

That is just an astounding level of success in close games.  

[ELA]

It's not just how good they are, but how good, on that high volume.  If you assume you will go .500, UCLA's winning percentage is also well above average, but if they had performed "as expected", they have 2 fewer wins.  They'd be 9-8, instead of 11-6.  Michigan should be 6-6, which means they would also be 9-8, instead of 14-3.

I think that's why the predictive numbers don't love them.  The resume ones do.

[medinabuckeye1]

It's not just how good they are, but how good, on that high volume.  If you assume you will go .500, UCLA's winning percentage is also well above average, but if they had performed "as expected", they have 2 fewer wins.  They'd be 9-8, instead of 11-6.  Michigan should be 6-6, which means they would also be 9-8, instead of 14-3.

I think that's why the predictive numbers don't love them.  The resume ones do.

Agreed.  It makes them REALLY hard to project because the juxtaposition between being basically an average team in terms of efficiency but being best-in-the-league in terms of W/L is a circle that is hard to square.  

You have to give them credit.  At the end of the day the goal for each team is to win games and they've done a LOT of that but at the same time when you look at those mediocre efficiency numbers and the close wins over mediocre and bad teams like Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Rutgers (again) you have to wonder whether or not they can keep it up.  

Based on record they should pretty easily beat IL and UMD at home and have a fighting chance in East Lansing.  Maybe they could finish 17-3.  Based on efficiency they'd be lucky to split the IL/UMD games and they have no prayer in East Lansing.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Interesting games tonight:

UCLA and Purdue are both 11-6.  The two of them and Maryland are in a three-way tie for the last two double-bye's into the Friday games of the BTT so this game will go a long way toward determining who gets the last two double byes.  The loser could still get there and the winner might not but realistically, the winner probably gets a double-bye and the loser probably doesn't.  

The game is in West Lafayette at 8pm (5pm out on the West Coast for @betarhoalphadelta ) and will be broadcast on Fox.  

Iowa and Northwestern are something of a mirror image of the Bruins and Boilermakers.  The Hawkeyes and Wildcats are also tied with each other albeit at 6-11 instead of 11-6.  Iowa and Northwestern are joined at 6-11 by Minnesota and Southern California and the four of them are tied for the last three spots in the BTT so there is a pretty good chance that the IA/NU loser tonight will miss the BTT altogether.  

The game is in Evanston at 9pm (8pm locally) and will be broadcast on FS1.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Michigan's win over Rutgers last night mathematically eliminated the Boilermakers, Terps, and Bruins from contention for the league title as the M/MSU winner can do no worse than 15-5.  Thus only the Michigan schools and Wisconsin are mathematically alive in the league title race.  

Wisconsin (12-5) faces elimination on Sunday in East Lansing (130pm, CBS).  

Michigan has a home game Sunday against Illinois (345, CBS) that they *should* win but see above discussion of their odd efficiency vs results situation.  

[medinabuckeye1]

With the home loss to Minnesota, if Nebraska isn't in "must-win" territory from here out they are certainly close.

[ELA]

With the home loss to Minnesota, if Nebraska isn't in "must-win" territory from here out they are certainly close.

I think they are

[FearlessF]

doesn't matter in my opinion, UNL is just a bad team and poorly coached - not worth watching

I didn't watch yesterday and feel it was a good decision

[Cincydawg]

It's a bit ironic, and I'm sure many have noted before, that the B1G appeared to be the best league in football this past year, and the SEC appears to be the best league in Bball this season.

[Cincydawg]

What is a good basketball season for your team?

For UGA, making the tourney is an excellent (and unusual) season, even if they lose game one.

[FearlessF]

For UNL - making the tourney and losing game one

have never won game one - NEVER