2024-2025 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

They only played 7 against MSU, and Johnson was one of them.  because of constant injuries and illness, they've had to go to some other guys, but fully functioning, it's 7 sometimes 8, and now one is her

Ahh. 

Their No. 6 guy (22 MPG) was sick. And their No. 8 guy (16.8 per game) for some reason barely played against MSU. 

The latter guy has had an odd season, but he shot like gangbusters in Madison. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Bubble update:
It appears that Ohio State and Nebraska are the B1G teams closest to the bubble.  Right now:

• Nebraska is 7-9/17-10
• Ohio State is 7-8/15-11

Ohio State probably has a little bit more leeway because their SoS is tougher.  According to the Worldwide Leader's "BPI", Ohio State's SoS is #11 nationally (3rd B1G behind #2 PU and #9 M) while Nebraska's is 11th in the B1G and #33 nationally.  In a related note, Ohio State has better "best wins" and a not as bad worst loss.  

Nebraska's loss at Penn State tonight is a problem for them.  After tonight they have four games:

• vs M on Monday, 2/24
• vs MN on Saturday, 3/1
• at Ohio State on Tuesday, 3/4
• vs Iowa on Sunday, 3/9

If we assume that they win the home games against Minnesota and Iowa and lose at home to Michigan and on the road to Ohio State that sends them to the BTT at 9-11/19-12.  That *MIGHT* be enough for them and I definitely think that record would be enough with Ohio State's schedule but they would still be close enough that a bad loss in Indianapolis might end their season.  Further, any additional unforeseen loss would send them to Indy needing a deep run because 8-12/18-13 probably wouldn't be enough even with Ohio State's SoS.  

Flipping over to Ohio State:
The home game against Northwestern on Thursday night is absolutely a must-win situation.  After that they have four games and three of them are on the road including a two-game trip to LA.  That is rough.  If Ohio State wins the home games against NU and UNL and loses the road games in LA and Bloomington they'd finish 9-11/17-14.  I think they'd still need a win in Indy.  An unforeseen loss would be catastrophic as it would send them to Indy at 8-12/16-15.  At that point they would have to AT LEAST make it to the weekend and even that probably wouldn't be enough because unless they won the BTT they'd finish with 16 losses.  

Fifteen losses is unusual for an at-large team but I *THINK* that Ohio State's KenPom and NET rankings (which are solidly tournament quality) would get them in anyway.  Sixteen losses is probably a bridge too far with the possible exception of Ohio State finishing the regular season 8-12/16-15 then going 4-1 in Indianapolis with wins Wednesday-Saturday and a CG loss on Sunday.  In that case I think that four things would get them in:

• Despite the 16 losses, they'd have a pretty solid overall record at 20-16 due to all the extra games involved in playing every single day of the BTT.  
• They are currently 28 in KenPom and 30 in NET.  Finishing the regular season 1-4 would hurt that but probably not much since three of the four losses would be on the road and all four (assuming the win is NU) would be to teams that are at least decent.  Then the 4-1 run in Indy would help a LOT, probably more than making up for the 1-4 end of the regular season so they'd likely end up in the 20's in the computer rankings and that is obviously Tournament Quality.  
• Getting to the CG in the BTT would necessarily involve some VERY good wins.  Wednesday's opponent would be a bottom-feeder but Thursday's would be one of the 5th-8th best teams in the B1G (a Tournament team) and Friday's opponent would be one of the B1G's four best teams (a high seed in the Tournament).  Saturday's and Sunday's opponents are not known but unless there were a slew of upsets they would both be Tournament teams and likely high-end Tournament teams.  
• The committee is lazy.  If Ohio State made it to Sunday they wouldn't actually want to make two separate brackets for "if Ohio State wins" and "if Ohio State loses" so it would be easier to just make one and stick the Buckeyes in either way.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Nevermind 

[bayareabadger]

Northwestern housed Ohio State in Columbus. Yikes.

[FearlessF]

maryland looking good so far

[ELA]

maryland looking good so far

Theyve looked good all year.  They had their west coast trip early, but Queen is the best NBA prospect in the conference.  They also have some legit money that this year is going to convince them to buy in

[medinabuckeye1]

In ESPN/Lunardi's update this morning Ohio State dropped to a #10 seed but still isn't "on the bubble".  I think that is optimistic.  IMHO, the blowout home loss to Northwestern was catastrophic.  First off, it hit the "bad loss" trifecta:

• It was to a bad team, and
• It wasn't close, and
• It was at home.  

Beyond that, Ohio State now has 12 losses (15-12) with a two-game west coast road trip ahead.  That makes it extremely likely that the Buckeye's current two-game losing streak (and 4 of 6) will stretch into a four-game losing streak (and 6 of 8) with a record of 7-11/15-14 by the time the Buckeyes get home to face Nebraska.  

Finally, the blowout home loss to Northwestern destroyed what I thought was the Buckeyes' best argument.  Prior to that, their worst loss was a one-point OT home loss to Indiana.  Indiana isn't great but they are a borderline Tournament team at 6-9/15-11 and that was a close loss.  Northwestern is 5-11/14-13 and the loss was by 21 freaking points.  So now the Buckeyes have a bad loss just like all the other bubble teams.  They no longer stand out there.  

As I see it the most likely scenario is:

• L at UCLA on Sunday (2/23):  7-10/15-13
• L at USC on Wednesday (2/26):  7-11/15-14
• W vs UNL on Tuesday (3/4):  8-11/16-14
• L at Indiana on Saturday (3/8):  8-12/16-15

If the Buckeyes lose out and finish 7-13/15-16:
The Buckeyes would need to win the BTT to get into the dance because even losing the CG would leave them at 19-17 and that wouldn't be enough.  

If they go 1-3 (most likely) and finish 8-12/16-15:
*MAYBE* a run to the CG would be enough.  That would be 20-16 overall.  Twenty is usually enough wins but 16 is usually too many losses so this seems like a possibility but not a guarantee.  

If they go 2-2 and finish 9-11/17-14:
Now we are talking.  The BTT is harder to project because at 9-11 they might not have to play on Wednesday.  Given their need for wins they would probably be better off playing on Wednesday.  In any case, I think they'd need two BTT wins to feel safe at 19-15 but they might sneak in at 18-15.  

If they go 3-1 and finish 10-10/18-13:
I think they'd be a lock because their SoS would likely get them in at 18-14 but they would feel completely comfortable at 19-14.  

If they win out and finish 11-9/19-12:
They are a lock.  

@ELA , @bayareabadger , anyone else please check my thinking above and tell me if I'm too high or too low on my team.  Thank you.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Per Lunardi:

Nebraska is the only team "on the bubble" (note that his bubble consists of 16 teams made up of:

• The last four byes
• The last four in (play-in)
• The First four out
• The Next four out)

So we currently project to have:

• #2 Wisconsin
• #4 Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue
• #5 Maryland
• #6 UCLA
• #7 Illinois
• #8 Oregon
• #10 Nebraska, Ohio State

[FearlessF]

Huskers could use a road win in C-Bus

[bayareabadger]

In ESPN/Lunardi's update this morning Ohio State dropped to a #10 seed but still isn't "on the bubble".  I think that is optimistic.  IMHO, the blowout home loss to Northwestern was catastrophic.  First off, it hit the "bad loss" trifecta:

• It was to a bad team, and
• It wasn't close, and
• It was at home. 

Beyond that, Ohio State now has 12 losses (15-12) with a two-game west coast road trip ahead.  That makes it extremely likely that the Buckeye's current two-game losing streak (and 4 of 6) will stretch into a four-game losing streak (and 6 of 8) with a record of 7-11/15-14 by the time the Buckeyes get home to face Nebraska. 

Finally, the blowout home loss to Northwestern destroyed what I thought was the Buckeyes' best argument.  Prior to that, their worst loss was a one-point OT home loss to Indiana.  Indiana isn't great but they are a borderline Tournament team at 6-9/15-11 and that was a close loss.  Northwestern is 5-11/14-13 and the loss was by 21 freaking points.  So now the Buckeyes have a bad loss just like all the other bubble teams.  They no longer stand out there. 

As I see it the most likely scenario is:

• L at UCLA on Sunday (2/23):  7-10/15-13
• L at USC on Wednesday (2/26):  7-11/15-14
• W vs UNL on Tuesday (3/4):  8-11/16-14
• L at Indiana on Saturday (3/8):  8-12/16-15

If the Buckeyes lose out and finish 7-13/15-16:
The Buckeyes would need to win the BTT to get into the dance because even losing the CG would leave them at 19-17 and that wouldn't be enough. 

If they go 1-3 (most likely) and finish 8-12/16-15:
*MAYBE* a run to the CG would be enough.  That would be 20-16 overall.  Twenty is usually enough wins but 16 is usually too many losses so this seems like a possibility but not a guarantee. 

If they go 2-2 and finish 9-11/17-14:
Now we are talking.  The BTT is harder to project because at 9-11 they might not have to play on Wednesday.  Given their need for wins they would probably be better off playing on Wednesday.  In any case, I think they'd need two BTT wins to feel safe at 19-15 but they might sneak in at 18-15. 

If they go 3-1 and finish 10-10/18-13:
I think they'd be a lock because their SoS would likely get them in at 18-14 but they would feel completely comfortable at 19-14. 

If they win out and finish 11-9/19-12:
They are a lock. 

@ELA , @bayareabadger , anyone else please check my thinking above and tell me if I'm too high or too low on my team.  Thank you. 

I don't get the Lunardi thing, unless the collapse of the ACC is just having them really short teams. 

As I've said, my gut is 3 games over .500 is probably cooked. Four depends on how things shake out, but not promising, five tends to be in, give or take other scheduling factors.

OSU's current resume looks a tad dicy. You're talking 5-8 Q1, 7-12 top two quads, although they've avoided a Q3/Q4 loss. That's solid enough, probably not unreal strong (although the top three wins are rather nice). If they go 3-1, you add two Q1 wins, so that helps, but 18-14 still feels dicy. So I'd say they'd like to get to 19 by hook or by crook. 

A few years back, UW got left out at 17-14 with a 5-7 record in Quad 1 games, 11-13 in Q2, a Q3 loss and a dreadful NET ranking. OSU might be tougher on the wins side, but doesn't have the NET or Q3 issues. The bubble just also might be much different than past seasons. 

[ELA]

Torvik projects OSU to lose all 3 road games, and still get in, but in Dayton, as long as they win one in the BTT. 

So its dicey, but 2-4 still seems enough.

The ACC is way down, the pac-12 no longer exists, and the middle of the Big East looks as blah as last year, when they only got 3 bids

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't get the Lunardi thing, unless the collapse of the ACC is just having them really short teams.

As I've said, my gut is 3 games over .500 is probably cooked. Four depends on how things shake out, but not promising, five tends to be in, give or take other scheduling factors.

OSU's current resume looks a tad dicy. You're talking 5-8 Q1, 7-12 top two quads, although they've avoided a Q3/Q4 loss. That's solid enough, probably not unreal strong (although the top three wins are rather nice). If they go 3-1, you add two Q1 wins, so that helps, but 18-14 still feels dicy. So I'd say they'd like to get to 19 by hook or by crook.

A few years back, UW got left out at 17-14 with a 5-7 record in Quad 1 games, 11-13 in Q2, a Q3 loss and a dreadful NET ranking. OSU might be tougher on the wins side, but doesn't have the NET or Q3 issues. The bubble just also might be much different than past seasons.

Torvik projects OSU to lose all 3 road games, and still get in, but in Dayton, as long as they win one in the BTT.

So its dicey, but 2-4 still seems enough.

The ACC is way down, the pac-12 no longer exists, and the middle of the Big East looks as blah as last year, when they only got 3 bids

First, thank you @ELA and @bayareabadger .  

One of the reasons I come here is to get the reality check that fans of NOT my team can sometimes provide.  When you are talking about your own team it is easy to get to high on them or too low on them.  Immediately after the Northwestern loss my first emotional reaction was to think "they shouldn't be in anyway" but reality says that if you look closer nearly every bubble team will have a loss like that and most will have a worse loss.  So it isn't the end of the world.  

@bayareabadger 's four-over-.500 standard would require one of the following:

• Going 3-1 to get to 18-13 then losing the BTT opener to finish 18-15, or
• Going 2-2 to get to 17-14 then going 2-1 in Indy to finish 19-15, or
• Going 1-3 to get to 16-15 then going 4-1 in Indy to finish 20-16.  

@ELA 's reference to Torvik has the Buckeyes IN at 17-16 as follows:

• Lose the three road games (UCLA, USC, IU) and win the home game (UNL) to finish 16-15, then
• Win the BTT opener to get to 17-15, then
• Lose the BTT second game to finish 17-16.  

I could see the Buckeyes getting in at 17-16 but I think it is unlikely.  We'd be sweating out the selection show and could easily get bounced by a random bid thief.  Additionally, I'm afraid that the Committee might be uncomfortable with that many losses even if they thought that the SoS and computer rankings justified it.  

Thank you for the reality check.  I think I'm ok because I find myself between @bayareabadger and @ELA .  Given Ohio State's SoS and computer rankings, I think they are pretty easily in at three games over .500.  OTOH, I don't think the committee would take them at 17-16.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Huskers could use a road win in C-Bus

Huskers and Buckeyes are the two teams in the B1G closest to the bubble 🫧 so that game will be big. It could be an elimination game for one or both.

[bayareabadger]

Big MSU win. Saw the limits of zoning them up. A good passing team can punish that pretty good. (Also a few guys started hitting 3s).