2024-2025 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

I'm fairly certain the seeds are as follows (the league will probably officially release them by the time I finish typing this but I want to make sure I understand the tiebreakers so I'm taking a stab at it anyway):

• 17-3 Michigan State
• 14-6 Maryland (wins tie over M based on H2H, won in Ann Arbor)
• 14-6 Michigan
• 13-7 UCLA (H2H2H is all tied up at 1-1, UCLA wins based on record against MSU)
• 13-7 Wisconsin (wins tie over PU based on H2H, won in West Lafayette)
• 13-7 Purdue
• 12-8 Illinois (wins tie with Oregon based on H2H)
• 12-8 Oregon
• 10-10 Indiana
• 9-11 Ohio State
• 8-12 Rutgers
• 7-13 Minnesota
• 7-13 Northwestern
• 7-13 Southern California
• 7-13 Iowa
• 7-13 Nebraska
• 6-14 Penn State
• 4-15 Washington

The five-way tie at 7-13 is broken as follows:
First H2H2H2H2H:
[img width=274.381 height=70]https://i.imgur.com/ZnvNoQu.png[/img]

Thus Minnesota gets the #12 seed, Northwestern gets the #13 seed, and Nebraska gets left out at #16.  Southern California and Iowa revert to the two-team H2H tiebreaker and USC beat Iowa so USC gets #14 and Iowa gets #15. 

Thus, the BTT match-ups are:
Wednesday Peacock:

• #10 Ohio State vs #15 Iowa, 6pm
• #11 Rutgers vs #14 Southern California, 830
• #12 Minnesota vs #13 Northwestern, 330

Thursday BTN:

• #5 Wisconsin vs MN/NU, 230
• #6 Purdue vs RU/USC, 9pm
• #7 Illinois vs tOSU/IA, 630
• #8 Oregon vs #9 Indiana, noon

Friday BTN:

• #1 Michigan State vs Ore/IU, noon
• #2 Maryland vs IL/tOSU/IA, 630
• #3 Michigan vs PU/RU/USC, 8pm
• #4 UCLA vs UW/MN/NU, 230

Everything was finalized once the Minnesota-Rutgers game went final.  They were showing the bracket during the Oregon-Washington game

[medinabuckeye1]

Everything was finalized once the Minnesota-Rutgers game went final.  They were showing the bracket during the Oregon-Washington game

I actually had known that previously and should have realized it because I stated a couple days ago that Oregon/Washington didn't matter because Oregon lost a tie with Illinois anyway so Illinois had #7 locked down either outright (Oregon loses) or by tiebreaker (Oregon wins).  

[medinabuckeye1]

This builds on a comment that @ELA made a couple months ago but my alternative BTT Proposal is to eliminate the Sunday games on the final weekend then:
Tuesday:

• #15 Iowa vs #18 Washington at Maryland
• #16 Nebraska vs #17 Penn State at MSU

Wednesday:

• UNL/PSU at #1 Michigan State
• IA/UDub at #2 Maryland
• #14 Southern California at #3 Michigan
• #13 Northwestern at #4 UCLA
• #12 Minnesota at #5 Wisconsin
• #11 Rutgers at #6 Purdue
• #10 Ohio State at #7 Illinois
• #9 Indiana at #8 Oregon

Thursday is a travel day then the eight Wednesday winners convene at a neutral-site for an eight-team, three-day Tournament.  

Friday:

• MSU/UNL/PSU vs Ore/IU
• UMD/IA/UDub vs tOSU/IL
• USC/M vs RU/PU
• NU/UCLA vs MN/UW

Saturday:

• MSU/UNL/PSU/Ore/IU vs NU/UCLA/MN/UW
• UMD/IA/UDub/tOSU/IL vs USC/M/RU/PU

Sunday:

• CG

Alternatively, you could only let the top-4 host then #5-8 would choose which of their locations to go to with #5 getting the first pick, ie:
Tuesday:

• #16 Nebraska vs #17 Penn State at MSU
• #15 Iowa vs #18 Washington at Maryland

Wednesday:

• UNL/PSU at #1 Michigan State
• IA/UDub at #2 Maryland
• #14 Southern California at #3 Michigan
• #13 Northwestern at #4 UCLA
• #12 Minnesota vs #5 Wisconsin, Wisconsin would likely choose one of the two Michigan locations
• #11 Rutgers vs #6 Purdue, Purdue would choose the other Michigan location
• #10 Ohio State vs #7 Illinois, Illinois would likely choose Maryland
• #9 Indiana vs #8 Oregon, at UCLA by default

[ELA]

If you do that, might as well reseed when you go to the neutral site

[medinabuckeye1]

If you do that, might as well reseed when you go to the neutral site

Question:
What are we trying to accomplish?  

I guess that is really multiple questions:

• What do you think the league IS trying to accomplish?
• What do you think the league SHOULD BE trying to accomplish?

The league is probably trying to maximize revenue.  From that standpoint, I *THINK* the logical thing would be to give the bubble teams the best chance to get in.  I think the league's traditional "feed-in" method accomplishes this.  

For this year, my team is the closest to the bubble so if the league's goal is to help bubble teams, what they have laid out for Ohio State is:

• A Wednesday game (Iowa) where they will be a distinct but not prohibitive favorite.  
• A Thursday game (Illinois) where they will be a distinct but not prohibitive underdog.  
• A Friday game (Maryland) where they will be a near-prohibitive underdog.  

Frankly, I see this as nearly ideal but that varies by season/team.  


Ohio State has some great quality wins (neutral blowout of Kentucky, road win over Purdue) and a solid computer ranking (35th in BPI, 36th in NET, 34 in KenPom).  They are only 6-11 in Q1 but they are 3-3 in Q2 and 8-0 in Q3 and Q4.  

Indiana but comparison has a better record by two games (19-12 vs 17-14) and a better league record by a game (10-10 vs 9-11) but Indiana's computer rankings are atrocious (52nd in BPI, 52nd in NET, 44th in KenPom).  They are worse than tOSU in Q1 at 4-12 but better in Q2 at 5-0 and they are 10-0 in Q3 and Q4.  

Ohio State's SoS (10th per BPI, 13th per KenPom) is propping them up.  Ohio State's biggest need is simply win volume.  Their SoS is good enough that playing Iowa isn't going to materially hurt them and they don't really need additional quality wins, they just need wins.  

[ELA]

NCAA
SOUTH

• #1 Auburn vs. #16 Southern/SIU Edwardsville
• #8 Creighton vs. #9 Mississippi State
• #5 PURDUE vs. #12 McNeese
• #4 Clemson vs. #13 High Point
• #3 Iowa State vs. #14 Lipscomb
• #6 Marquette vs. #11 West Virginia/OHIO STATE
• #7 UCLA vs. #10 North Carolina
• #2 Tennessee vs. #15 Norfolk State

MIDWEST

• #1 Houston vs. #16 Merrimack/American
• #8 Missouri vs. #9 Gonzaga
• #5 Louisville vs. #12 Liberty
• #4 WISCONSIN vs. #13 Akron
• #3 Texas A&M vs. #14 Arkansas State
• #6 Arizona vs. #11 Utah State
• #7 Memphis vs. #10 Vanderbilt
• #2 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #15 Robert Morris

EAST

• #1 Duke vs. #16 Wofford
• #8 Connecticut vs. #9 Georgia
• #5 Ole Miss vs. #12 VCU
• #4 MARYLAND vs. #13 Yale
• #3 Kentucky vs. #14 UNC Wilmington
• #6 Kansas vs. #11 Drake
• #7 MICHIGAN vs. #10 Oklahoma
• #2 St. John’s vs. #15 Central Connecticut

WEST

• #1 Florida vs. #16 Omaha
• #8 New Mexico vs. #9 Baylor
• #5 BYU vs. #12 UC San Diego
• #4 Saint Mary’s vs. #13 Grand Canyon
• #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Northern Colorado
• #6 OREGON vs. #11 Arkansas/San Diego State
• #7 ILLINOIS vs. #10 Xavier
• #2 Alabama vs. #15 Bryant

NIT
BLOOMINGTON

• #1 INDIANA vs. #8 Bucknell
• #4 George Mason vs. #5 Pittsburgh
• #3 Cincinnati vs. #6 Stanford
• #2 UC Irvine vs. #7 RUTGERS

DALLAS

• #1 SMU vs. #8 SE Missouri State
• #4 Central Florida vs. #5 IOWA
• #3 NEBRASKA vs. #6 Arizona State
• #2 San Francisco vs. #7 Utah Valley

WINSTON-SALEM

• #1 Wake Forest vs. #8 Quinnipiac
• #4 NORTHWESTERN vs. #5 Kansas State
• #3 Villanova vs. #6 PENN STATE
• #2 Boise State vs. #7 Chattanooga

AUSTIN

• #1 Texas vs. #8 South Alabama
• #4 North Texas vs. #5 TCU
• #3 Dayton vs. #6 Utah
• #2 Colorado State vs. #7 Towson

All Big Ten Teams

• Michigan State - #2 seed
• Wisconsin - dropped from #3 seed to #4 seed
• Maryland - moved up from #6 seed to #4 seed
• Purdue - #5 seed
• Oregon - #6 seed
• Michigan - dropped from #5 seed to #7 seed
• UCLA - moved up from #8 seed to #7 seed
• Illinois - moved up from #8 seed to #7 seed
• Ohio State - moved up from #12 seed (Play-In) to #11 seed (Play-In)
• Indiana - dropped from #12 seed (Play-In) to NIT 1 seed
• Nebraska - dropped from NIT 2 seed to NIT 3 seed
• Northwestern - dropped from NIT 3 seed to NIT 4 seed
• Iowa - moved up from NIT 6 seed to NIT 5 seed
• Penn State - moved up to NIT 6 seed
• Rutgers - dropped from NIT 6 seed to NIT 7 seed
• USC - moved up to #1 team out of NIT
• Minnesota - #7 team out of NIT
• Washington - 

[boilerbanger]

I am surprised IU is not in ... do you guys think they have to beat Oregon to lock up a spot in the tourney.

On a side note, famous last words, but I really like Purdue's draw, winner of USC/Rutgers, then Michigan (who is in a funk) .. obviously gets tough from there, but the semis are always a tough match up.

[medinabuckeye1]

I am surprised IU is not in ... do you guys think they have to beat Oregon to lock up a spot in the tourney.

According to Lundardi the B1G has three Bubble Teams:

• Indiana - Last Four Byes
• Ohio State - Last Four In (play-in game)
• Nebraska - Next Four Out

Nebraska could theoretically make it if they made some noise in the BTT but alas, they failed to qualify for the BTT so they are toast.  

I think that Indiana would be IN if their season ended right now but since it doesn't, they might need to beat Oregon.  I think they'd probably make it even with a loss to Oregon but they'll be sweating out the selections and could miss if the bubble strengthens or if there are a few bid thieves.  

Ohio State would be right on the line if the season ended today.  I think that a loss to Iowa would doom them because it would be not only a loss but a bad loss.  If they beat Iowa and lose to Illinois I think they'll be REALLY close to the line and likely playing a play-in game in Dayton.  If they beat both Iowa and Illinois then I think they are pretty safe even if they lose to Maryland.  

On a side note, famous last words, but I really like Purdue's draw, winner of USC/Rutgers, then Michigan (who is in a funk) .. obviously gets tough from there, but the semis are always a tough match up.

It looks good for them right now but these things can turn on a dime.  Who knows if whatever is ailing Michigan will get resolved between now and Indianapolis.  

[ELA]

That is purely based off 2/3 SOR and 1/3 KenPom.

Their resume still isn't great, and OSU still gets credit for some good wins early

[medinabuckeye1]

That is purely based off 2/3 SOR and 1/3 KenPom.

Their resume still isn't great, and OSU still gets credit for some good wins early

To expand on this, here are NET, KenPom, and BPI (sorted by NET) heading into the BTT for the B1G (format is B1G Net Rank, NET Rank, School, KenPom Rank, BPI rank):

• 10 Maryland, 13, 14
• 11 Michigan State, 8, 11
• 14 Purdue, 14, 18
• 15 Illinois, 18, 21
• 20 Wisconsin, 12, 23
• 24 UCLA, 25, 26
• 27 Michigan, 28, 33
• 29 Oregon, 31, 34
• 36 Ohio State, 34, 35
• 52 Indiana, 44, 52
• 56 Northwestern, 47, 49
• 57 Nebraska, 55, 55
• 63 Penn State, 60, 57
• 69 Iowa, 67, 60
• 71 Southern California, 63, 61
• 77 Rutgers, 75, 74
• 92 Minnesota, 89, 87
• 115 Washington, 108, 106

The two that really stand out are Michigan and Ohio State.  The computers are like me, they love Ohio State and hate Michigan, LoL.  

Seriously, Michigan:
By record they are tied with Maryland, second best in the league.  
The computers have them light years behind Maryland and Michigan State and also:

• behind UW, UCLA, and PU who are all a game worse in the standings.  
• behind IL who is 2 games worse in the standings
• barely ahead of Oregon who is 3 games worse in the standings
• only slightly ahead of tOSU who is 5 games worse in the standings

Ohio State:
By record they are worse than IU who swept them and only barely ahead of RU.  
The computers have them substantially ahead of IU and light years ahead of RU, also:

• barely behind Ore who is 2 games better in the standings
• only slightly behind M who is 5 games better in the standings

[medinabuckeye1]

They are far from the best example of this.  They have a top 15 basketball program.

Alabama just made their first ever Final 4 last year.  I don't think Tennessee has ever made one.  USC?  Nebraska?  Georgia?  Michigan doesn't belong with those schools, but OSU has had a better basketball program than them.  I'd argue that of the great football programs, certainly of the helmets, OSU has the BEST basketball program

A few years ago (so this is somewhat out of date) the AP did top-25 BB programs of all-time.  Of the football "helmets:

• 10 Ohio State
• 13 Michigan
• 16 Notre Dame
• 22 Oklahoma
• 37 Alabama
• 43 Florida
• T44 Tennessee
• T44 Texas
• T46 Florida State
• T46 LSU
• 64 USC
• 84 Miami
• 99 Clemson
• T113 Georgia
• 116 Penn State
• T122 Nebraska

You can definitely argue that Ohio State isn't a top-10 program and you could reasonably argue any of these one way or the other a few spots but you can't reasonably argue that Ohio State's BB program is complete crap on the level of Nebraska, Penn State, and Georgia.  If the Buckeyes aren't the best BB program of the football helmets they are awfully close to it.  

[FearlessF]

so, we got that goin for us, ........... which is nice.

[medinabuckeye1]

so, we got that goin for us, ........... which is nice.

https://youtu.be/CD7nwx8ASrw?si=08mKIP1Ddd68AG0f

[FearlessF]

ELA loves that movie!