I know I'm not the only Clevelander in here so this is to get it straight in my head but also to share with any other Browns' fans here.
Cleveland is 10-5 but hasn't quite clinched a playoff berth yet. According to ESPN they have something like a 99.2% chance of going to the playoffs. I think most Browns' fans read that and think "0.8% is a LOT for Cleveland."
Anyway, best case, win out and Baltimore loses out, finish 12-5:If the browns win out (vs NYJ on Thursday night, at Cincy on Sunday, January 7) they will finish 12-5. If Baltimore loses out (vs Miami on Sunday, vs Pittsburgh next Sunday) then Cleveland and Baltimore would tie and Cleveland would win that tie. Reason:
- Tiebreaker #1 is H2H and the teams split their series this year with each team winning on the other team's field.
- Tiebreaker #2 is divisional record. Cleveland and Baltimore are currently tied there at 3-2 but in order to both finish 12-5 the Ravens would have to lose to the Steelers (Stillers if you live in PA) and the Browns would have to beat the Bengals so Cleveland would be 4-2 and Baltimore would be 3-3.
Next best case, win out but Baltimore does NOT lose out, finish 12-5:In this case the Browns would get the #5 seed as the top wildcard.
Third best case, split the last two games and finish 11-6:The Browns would still get the #5 seed as the top wildcard. In this case the Browns would either get the top wildcard outright or be tied with either Buffalo or Miami for it. Either way the Browns would win. Reason:
- Tiebreaker #1 is H2H but the Browns did not play the Dolphins nor the Bills.
- Tiebreaker #2 is conference record. The Browns are currently 7-3 and would be 8-4 in this scenario. Miami is 7-3 and would be 7-5 in this scenario while Buffalo is 5-5 and would be 7-3 in this scenario.
Worse case, lose out and finish 10-7:The Browns would still be no worse than tied for the #6 seed (second wildcard) but it *COULD* be a jumbled mess of a tie. Each of the following teams *COULD* also finish 10-7:
- Buffalo if they split their last two (vs NE, at Miami)
- Pittsburgh if they win out (at Seattle, at Baltimore)
- Cincinnati if they win out (at KC, vs Cleveland)
- Jacksonville if they win out (vs Carolina, at Tennessee)
- Indianapolis if they win out (vs Las Vegas, vs Houston)
- Houston if they win out (vs Tennessee, at Indianapolis)
It couldn't actually be a six-way tie because one of Jacksonville/Indianapolis/Houston would be the AFC-South Champion and thus not in the wildcard race. Additionally, the loser of the Indianapolis/Houston game in Indianapolis on January 7 will finish no better than 9-8. Thus, the Browns could end up as part of an up-to 4-way tie for the last two wildcard spots.
In the case of a multi-team wildcard tie, the first tiebreaker step is to apply the divisional tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked team in each division. Thus, Cleveland would first be compared to Pittsburgh and/or Cincinnati:
Three team tie with both Cincy and Pittsburgh:
- The first tiebreaker is H2H2H. Cleveland already split with Pittsburgh and in this scenario they would also split with Cincinnati. Pittsburgh swept Cincinnati so the Steelers would win this at 3-1 with Cleveland at 2-2 and Cincy at 1-3.
Two team tie with Pittsburgh:
- The first tiebreaker is H2H and the teams split.
- The second tiebreaker is divisional record. Pittsburgh would be 5-1 in this scenario while Cleveland would be 3-3.
Two team tie with Cincinnati:
- The first tiebreaker is H2H and the teams split.
- The second tiebreaker is divisional record. Cleveland would be 3-3 and Cincinnati would be 1-5.
With all of that said, here is what it would take for Cleveland to miss the playoffs:
- Cleveland would have to lose out (vs NYJ, at Cincy), and
- Pittsburgh would have to win out (at Seattle, at Baltimore), and
- Jacksonville would have to win out (vs Carolina, at Tennessee), and
- The Indianapolis/Houston winner would have to have won their prior game (vs Las Vegas for Indy, vs TN for Houston).
In that case the AFC Playoff seeds would be:
- Baltimore or Miami
- Miami or Baltimore
- KC, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, or Houston
- KC, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Houston, Las Vegas, or Denver
- Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, or Houston
- Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, or Houston
- Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, or Houston
Cleveland would be tied with #6 and #7 (and possibly #5) but lose the tie.
Any of the following would clinch a playoff berth for Cleveland this weekend:
- A home win over the Jets on Thursday, or
- A Jacksonville loss at home to Carolina on Sunday at 1, or
- A Pittsburgh loss in Seattle on Sunday at 4, or
- Losses by both Indianapolis (vs Las Vegas Sunday at 1) AND Houston (vs Tennessee Sunday at 1).
