Teams with 1st Loss Week 5:
Utah
Kansas
Duke
Syracuse
Georgia State
Teams with 1st Win Week 5:
Buffalo
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Week 4: 30.8% (12 of 39)
Week 5: 18.5% (5 of 27)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
10: Nine conference champs (all except the MAC) and one more from ACC.
-No changes this week. We have one chance left at 2 undefeated from the ACC if all three of Florida St, Louisville, and North Carolina win out.
Week 5 Thoughts:
-I added the 1-loss list this week. As a reminder, every team to make the BCS National Championship Game/Bowl or the College Football Playoff except for 2007 LSU has ended the year on either the undefeated or 1-loss list. Every team outside the AQ/Power 5 to make a BCS/NY6 bowl has had 1 or fewer losses with 2 exceptions.
-Several winless teams were close this week, but the one to pull off the win and get themselves off the list was Buffalo. They beat Akron on the road.
-Texas defeated Kansas in the only game of unbeatens this week. Plenty of time for things to change, but right now the Big 12 looks like its between the Texas and Oklahoma titans. The conference would prefer this change. Kansas State is ultimately still probably the best chance for that.
-Notre Dame beating Duke keeps the Irish in the national title chase. A Duke win here would have been a boon for the ACC and, combined with the Clemson win, would have been huge for Duke, but the conference is still doing OK and a 1-loss champ will make a strong case to get in the playoff bowls. Having 5 ranked teams with Louisville entering the rankings helps. Clemson defeated the other previous unranked team in Syracuse though. With two losses, but games still vs. Miami and North Carolina, the conference does not want Clemson getting hot now.
-Kentucky beat Florida handily. The SEC still has three undefeated teams in Georgia, Kentucky, and Missouri. Georgia looks beatable and if either one of those two can pull off an upset with the bulldogs, the SEC East looks very interesting. In the SEC west, we saw Alabama beat Ole Miss a couple weeks ago who now beat LSU. This division is still the Crimson Tide's to lose.
-Not a lot of changes in the Big Ten pecking order this week. Michigan scored well at Nebraska. Maryland is playing well enough to make the Ohio State game next week interesting.
-Utah fell in the PAC-12 to Oregon State. It is good to see Oregon State and Washington State play well this year given what is ahead. For Utah's part, they won the previous two PAC-12 Championships and could again this year, but they might not be able to afford another game like that.
NY6 Race:
-There are 16 undefeated or 1-loss teams in Group of 5 conferences. Most likely, one of these teams will take the NY6 spot, although a current 2-loss team is possible.
-Memphis won over Boise State which is a decent American win over the Mountain West. Them and Tulane both survive with one loss and either will be strongly in contention if they win out and maybe even with 2 losses. The Mountain West is looking in decent shape itself though with Fresno State remaining the only ranked team outside the power 5, with Air Force undefeated, and Wyoming having a good 1-loss resume.
-The Sun Belt is down to 2 undefeateds and one of them is ineligible, so the conference's best (but not only) hope is for Marshall win out. That will be a tough road though so the conference will probably need a 1-loss team to get it. (more on that below).
-Conference USA continues to rely on Liberty who was off this week.
-Nothing has changed much in the MAC this week either. Bowling Green's win over Georgia Tech was nice, but they need one of their 1-loss teams to win out and get some help. It wouldn't hurt if Cincinnati or Iowa State did well in the Big 12 either given Miami and Ohio's wins over them.
Week 6 Thoughts:
-We have 3 games between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Oklahoma vs. Undefeated Texas: This is the last time this game will feel huge for the Big 12, but it certainly does this year. Winner will control their destiny. The loser will probably have to win out to set-up a rematch in the Big 12 Championship. A second loss might still let them in the championship game (might), but for the playoff bowls, it will require no mistakes the rest of the way. This is the way the Red River Shootout feels at its best.
Undefeated Kentucky at Undefeated Georgia: Georgia has looked beatable. Kentucky just demolished Florida. The wildcats are two touchdown underdogs here, but the possibility that Kentucky could win this and be in pole position for the SEC East is not out of the realm of possibilities. That itself is amazing. Should Kentucky win this and Missouri lose to anyone besides Georgia, the bulldogs would need Kentucky to lose twice to make the SEC Championship.
Undefeated Maryland at Undefeated Ohio State: Maryland has been very good to start the year and beat Indiana by more than Ohio State. Ohio State's offense has sometimes struggled. The Buckeyes are big favorites here, but this could definitely be a game.
LSU at Undefeated Missouri: Missouri remains one of three undefeated in the SEC East. Winning this will mean they are one of two undefeated from the SEC after this week. LSU needs to take this to keep themselves with some control in the SEC West.
1-loss Rutgers vs. 1-loss Wisconsin: Wisconsin is the team I would lean toward in the Big Ten west. Them looking like Michigan did vs. Rutgers last week, would help the division.
Undefeated Marshall at North Carolina State: Marshall wins this and they position themselves well for the NY6 bid and help the Sun Belt regardless of what comes directly next for them. They are a 6 point underdog though.
Undefeated Washington State at 1-loss UCLA: UCLA is the small favorite here, but Washington State still has potential for a special season.
1-loss Alabama at 1-loss Texas A&M: This might be for the SEC West. Neither can be sure they can afford a loss here and stay in the playoff race or the SEC race.
1-loss Syracuse at undefeated North Carolina: Since Syracuse lost last week, best for the conference if North Carolina keeps winning and moving up the rankings. Syracuse is a 9 point underdog, but good enough to win this.
1-loss Notre Dame at Undefeated Louisville: Last week, the Irish took out an undefeated ACC team on the road where they were a 5-7 point favorite. This week, they have the same challenge. Louisville and the ACC will gain a lot from a win here.
Undefeated Fresno State at 1-loss Wyoming: This is monster Mountain West game. Fresno State is undefeated, ranked, and in pole position for the NY6 bid right now. Wyoming kept it close vs. Texas for three quarters and has wins over Texas Tech and Appalachian State. The winner here is in very serious contention for the NY6. Fresno State might still be with a loss.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 4, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 4, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 4, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 2, total: 22
Florida State
Maryland
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Louisville
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Marshall
Air Force
Oregon
Southern California
Washington
Washington State
Georgia
Kentucky
Fresno State
Liberty
(James Madison)
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 2, Big 12: 4, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 3, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 3, independents: 1, total: 29
Duke
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Memphis
Tulane
West Virginia
Kansas State
Kansas
Brigham Young
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Iowa
(Jacksonville State)
Miami (OH)
Ohio U.
Toledo
UNLV
Wyoming
Oregon State
Utah
UCLA
Tennessee
Alabama
Texas A&M
Mississippi
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Texas State
Notre Dame
Remaining Winless Teams: ACC: 1, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 1, independents: 1, total: 4
Virginia
(Sam Houston)
Connecticut
Nevada
