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I'm surprised to see that hard ceiling at #5 for Penn State.  With what they're bringing back, if not now, when??

bama fans

I'm surprised to see that hard ceiling at #5 for Penn State.  With what they're bringing back, if not now, when??

If things play out as expected (I know they won't but just saying), you really have to feel sorry for Penn State. Look at the six teams ranked closest to them:

• #4 Bama is the #1 team in their division and #2 in their league.
• #5 LSU is #2 in their division and #3 in their league.
• #6 USC is #1 in their league
• #8 FSU is #1 in their league
• #9 Clemson is #2 in their division and league.
• #10 Washington is #2 in their league.

All of those teams are either favored to make their CG or only need one minor upset to become the favorite.  Then there is PSU, third in their division.

Their division makes things challenging.

Per the AP Poll:
Sec-E:

• #1 UGA
• #12 TN
• ORV #2, USCe

SEC-W

• #4 Bama
• #5 LSU
• #22 Ole Miss

B1G-W:

• #19 Wisconsin
• #25 Iowa
• ORV #12 Minnesota

B1G-E

• #2 M
• #3 tOSU
• #7 PSU

If the AP Poll is right (I realize probably not, but just as a guide), there are only six teams in the whole country better than PSU but PSU's misfortune is that two of them are in their division. The rest of the third-best teams in their divisions are either unranked (USCe, MN) or barely ranked (Ole Miss).

Joel Klatt talked about this on his YouTube show and came to the same realization that I shared here a few months ago, specifically:
If PSU, tOSU, and M all go 11-1 the decisive tiebreaker will be the cumulative conference records of the three teams' B1G-W opponents. Klatt then used Vegas' W/L predictions and, once again, came to the same conclusion that I did, this appears to favor:

• tOSU (PU, MN, UW) followed by
• M (PU, MN, UNL) then
• PSU (IA, IL, NU).

Another thing Katt pointed out is something that @Big Beef Tacosupreme has mentioned, PSU is built to take on the Buckeyes and has matchup problems with Michigan. Klatt gave Franklin credit here by pointing out that tOSU has been the team to beat in the B1G for years so it made sense for Franklin to do exactly that: Build a team to beat tOSU. So he tried to do that and he has a really good team this year that just might actually be able to do that. Unfortunately for PSU, they STILL likely can't win the division unless either:

• They can also beat M, or
• The Buckeyes beat M, all three teams tie at 11-1, and NU is a whole lot better than most of us expect.

I don't think many voters see PSU as top five at this point.  I'm fairly impressed with what I've read here about them, but their path is tough of course.  11-1 would be outstanding for them.  I usually try and look at 15-30+for teams that could exceed their ranking.  Kentucky could be an 8-4 kind of team.

A lot of programs play 3 pastries OOC and one P5 of whatever ilk.  A 9-3 record gets you ranked, 8-4 borderline, but a bowl win gets you ranked.

The get Bama Xdiv and Miss State.  They might split those, and then lose to Tenn/UGA/someone else.  They might beat Tenn.  Searching teams below 15 isn't obvious I find, and schedule is a factor.

A lot of SEC programs do.  B12 and B1G play 9 conference games and only 3 OOC games.