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Topic: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness

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Honestbuckeye

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #364 on: January 04, 2024, 04:28:25 PM »
Michigan 34- Washington 17.  
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #365 on: January 04, 2024, 08:55:17 PM »
Joe Milton is Uncle Rico.

UW could score and win w/o a running game because Penix kept hitting big passes.
I don't think UW is willing to nickel-and-dime short passes down the field for a full game.  They NEED or feel the need to go deep very often (compared to other teams).

If UM can just do an umbrella defense and take away the long ball, Penix will still take those chances and it'll retard their offense.

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Gigem

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #366 on: January 04, 2024, 11:02:03 PM »
I like Washington in this game. I think Penix will pass all over them. 

I also thought Bama and Texas would win, so there’s that. 
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Mdot21

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #367 on: January 05, 2024, 12:22:54 PM »
feel like people have been sleeping on Will Johnson all year. He's the best CB in all of college football. As good as Washington's WR's are....and they are freaking really good- none of them are on the level of Marvin Harrison JR- that guy stands alone- he can't be seen by any WRs in college. None. And Will Johnson has done about as good a job on him as a college CB possibly can the last two years. Will Johnson is flat out just a true shutdown corner. Mikey Sainistril is a hell of a nickel- sure tackler, big hitter, big-time play maker on the football- but he also can get put in the blender and gets burnt badly from time to time. Washington getting favorable matchup in the slot and attacking him scares me a little bit- because he can be beat time to time. CB2 Josh Wallace has been a pleasant surprise. He's actually been way better than I thought he would coming in the portal from UMass- especially during the last month of the season when he started to get healthy and get more comfortable in the system. Michigan's safeties are pretty damn good as well- Rod Moore is an ELITE free safety and Makari Paige is a damn good strong safety. Michigan's secondary is pretty damn good.

Penix played a virtually flawless game- escaped pressure every single time and made insane contested throws- and literally just about every 50-50 ball he threw his WRs came down with. He and his WR's are going to have to do that again vs a much better defense than what Texas trotted out. IF they can- more power to them.

But I also feel like Washington won't have as many opportunities to have the ball because Michigan will just try to ground and pound them and lean on them and play keep away.

Should be a really great game.
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utee94

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #368 on: January 05, 2024, 12:41:25 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on January 05, 2024, 12:22:54 PM
feel like people have been sleeping on Will Johnson all year. He's the best CB in all of college football. As good as Washington's WR's are....and they are freaking really good- none of them are on the level of Marvin Harrison JR- that guy stands alone- he can't be seen by any WRs in college. None. And Will Johnson has done about as good a job on him as a college CB possibly can the last two years. Will Johnson is flat out just a true shutdown corner. Mikey Sainistril is a hell of a nickel- sure tackler, big hitter, big-time play maker on the football- but he also can get put in the blender and gets burnt badly from time to time. Washington getting favorable matchup in the slot and attacking him scares me a little bit- because he can be beat time to time. CB2 Josh Wallace has been a pleasant surprise. He's actually been way better than I thought he would coming in the portal from UMass- especially during the last month of the season when he started to get healthy and get more comfortable in the system. Michigan's safeties are pretty damn good as well- Rod Moore is an ELITE free safety and Makari Paige is a damn good strong safety. Michigan's secondary is pretty damn good.

Penix played a virtually flawless game- escaped pressure every single time and made insane contested throws- and literally just about every 50-50 ball he threw his WRs came down with. He and his WR's are going to have to do that again vs a much better defense than what Texas trotted out. IF they can- more power to them.

But I also feel like Washington won't have as many opportunities to have the ball because Michigan will just try to ground and pound them and lean on them and play keep away.

Should be a really great game.

Yeah no kidding.  Washington and Penix played great against Texas, but they also had a tremendous amount of luck.  They scored a TD on a ball where the Texas defender was in perfect position and tipped the ball, and it just so happened to fall right into the hands of the Husky receiver streaking into the endzone.  In a 1-score game, that TD was literally the difference between winning and losing.

But even so, I do think you're over-estimating Michigan's defense against Washington.  I think the Huskies are going to score 24-28.  It'll be up to Michigan's offense to match or  better that.

Hoping for a Michigan win but I won't be surprised if it goes the other way.
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nwms

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #369 on: January 05, 2024, 12:45:23 PM »
i like mich in a close game.
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Mdot21

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #370 on: January 05, 2024, 01:08:12 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on January 05, 2024, 12:41:25 PM
Yeah no kidding.  Washington and Penix played great against Texas, but they also had a tremendous amount of luck.  They scored a TD on a ball where the Texas defender was in perfect position and tipped the ball, and it just so happened to fall right into the hands of the Husky receiver streaking into the endzone.  In a 1-score game, that TD was literally the difference between winning and losing.

But even so, I do think you're over-estimating Michigan's defense against Washington.  I think the Huskies are going to score 24-28.  It'll be up to Michigan's offense to match or  better that.

Hoping for a Michigan win but I won't be surprised if it goes the other way.
Maybe. But I don't think so. Washington hasn't seen a front 7 playing in the PAC as gnarly or deep as Michigan's nor a CB that can take a #1 WR out and lock down a side of the field by himself the way that Will Johnson can. Michigan's defense the last 3 years under the Ravens' 3-4 disciple DC's that John loaned out to Jeem have been designed to stop Ohio State offenses with more skill talent than what Washington has been bringing to the table- and they've been largely successful in doing so- and this 2023 defense is the best defense of the last 3 playoff teams. Lot of these same players have played elite skill talent- playing the kind of talent that Washington has at the skill positions will not be a shock to them.

Washington probably just will not be able to run the football on Michigan's front. And if Michigan doesn't have to even worry about the run, then Jesse Minter can get creative with his pressures and just pass rush the sh*t out of Penix all game long. On the flip side of that, Washington's defense is 130th in success rate against the run and they are 112th on defense in red zone rushing touchdowns allowed. I have the feeling that Michigan is just going to smash the shit out of Washington and control the clock and game flow and take the air out of the ball- and that Washington won't have very many opportunities to put up huge stats.

I was super nervous vs Bama, precisely because of Bama's elite defense. Michigan seemed to have no problem with 4 of the best defenses in CFB when they went on the road and slayed Penn State's gnarly defense, beat Ohio State's elite defense at home, beat Iowa's defense in the B1GCCG, and just beat Bama's defense in the Rose Bowl. Washington's defense has very little shot at stopping a Michigan team that is pissed and on a mission imo. They'll have to play the absolute game of their lives PLUS Michigan will have to blow it with some pick 6's (like JJ did last year vs TCU) for that to happen imo.
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utee94

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #371 on: January 05, 2024, 01:17:07 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on January 05, 2024, 01:08:12 PM
Maybe. But I don't think so. Washington hasn't seen a front 7 playing in the PAC as gnarly or deep as Michigan's nor a CB that can take a #1 WR out and lock down a side of the field by himself the way that Will Johnson can. Michigan's defense the last 3 years under the Ravens' 3-4 disciple DC's that John loaned out to Jeem have been designed to stop Ohio State offenses with more skill talent than what Washington has been bringing to the table- and they've been largely successful in doing so- and this 2023 defense is the best defense of the last 3 playoff teams. Lot of these same players have played elite skill talent- playing the kind of talent that Washington has at the skill positions will not be a shock to them.

Washington probably just will not be able to run the football on Michigan's front. And if Michigan doesn't have to even worry about the run, then Jesse Minter can get creative with his pressures and just pass rush the sh*t out of Penix all game long. On the flip side of that, Washington's defense is 130th in success rate against the run and they are 112th on defense in red zone rushing touchdowns allowed. I have the feeling that Michigan is just going to smash the shit out of Washington and control the clock and game flow and take the air out of the ball- and that Washington won't have very many opportunities to put up huge stats.

I was super nervous vs Bama, precisely because of Bama's elite defense. Michigan seemed to have no problem with 4 of the best defenses in CFB when they went on the road and slayed Penn State's gnarly defense, beat Ohio State's elite defense at home, beat Iowa's defense in the B1GCCG, and just beat Bama's defense in the Rose Bowl. Washington's defense has very little shot at stopping a Michigan team that is pissed and on a mission imo. They'll have to play the absolute game of their lives PLUS Michigan will have to blow it with some pick 6's (like JJ did last year vs TCU) for that to happen imo.

Ah okay we're getting the super-positive nobody-can-ever-stop Michigan side of manic MDot today, got it. :)

I GUESS that's better than fatalistic fire-everyone-at-Michigan MDot.  I'm not sure though.

Gonna be a close game.  Your rhetoric indicates you believe otherwise.  You should probably check that before you wreck that.
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Temp430

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #372 on: January 05, 2024, 03:33:51 PM »
Times are changing, as always.  NIL is cutting into the SEC’s bagman advantage.  No wonder Saban doesn’t like it and is holding out his hat for NIL money.

PS.  Paul Finebalm’s ears are the largest I’ve ever seen on a human.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2024, 03:57:25 PM by Temp430 »
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #373 on: January 05, 2024, 05:04:15 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on January 05, 2024, 01:17:07 PM
Ah okay we're getting the super-positive nobody-can-ever-stop Michigan side of manic MDot today, got it. :)

I GUESS that's better than fatalistic fire-everyone-at-Michigan MDot.  I'm not sure though.

Gonna be a close game.  Your rhetoric indicates you believe otherwise.  You should probably check that before you wreck that.
First positive UW play, mdot turns into Chicken Little with the sky falling.
Fun fact:  that Fansville commercial where everyone goes apeshit after 1 bad play is based on mdot.
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #374 on: January 05, 2024, 05:06:21 PM »
Quote from: Temp430 on January 05, 2024, 03:33:51 PM
Times are changing, as always.  NIL is cutting into the SEC’s bagman advantage.  No wonder Saban doesn’t like it and is holding out his hat for NIL money.

PS.  Paul Finebalm’s ears are the largest I’ve ever seen on a human.
All the better to hear you.

Or not.
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Mdot21

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #375 on: January 06, 2024, 05:01:30 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 05, 2024, 05:04:15 PM
First positive UW play, mdot turns into Chicken Little with the sky falling.
Fun fact:  that Fansville commercial where everyone goes apeshit after 1 bad play is based on mdot.
accurate. lol. 
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Mdot21

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #376 on: January 06, 2024, 05:08:53 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on January 05, 2024, 01:17:07 PM
Ah okay we're getting the super-positive nobody-can-ever-stop Michigan side of manic MDot today, got it. :)

I GUESS that's better than fatalistic fire-everyone-at-Michigan MDot.  I'm not sure though.

Gonna be a close game.  Your rhetoric indicates you believe otherwise.  You should probably check that before you wreck that.
Lol.

I am just looking at the match-ups and the team statistics. Michigan has a pretty significant edge in all the advanced stats and metrics and I just think that they will be able to control the game on the lines of scrimmage, get more stops on defense than Washington will, and be able to run the ball and control the clock.

Washington's QB & WR's were insanely perfect vs Texas. Hard to do replicate that kind of performance two weeks in a row, especially when going up against an even better team/defense in Michigan. It could happen, obviously. But I tend to think things like controlling the LOS, playing stingy defense, and running the football are more reliable and easier to lean on than a QB/passing game being absolutely on fire and nearly perfect.

Just feel like this was the best most favorable matchup of all the teams in the playoff for Michigan. Washington's defense is legitimately very bad vs the run. Pretty decent at rushing the passer, and OK against the pass- but they are downright terrible vs the run.

As long as they don't have another game with special teams disasters like they did vs BAMA and as long as JJ McCarthy doesn't throw 2 pick 6's and fumble the ball at the 1 yard line on a 1st and goal like he did vs TCU- Michigan will win this game imo.
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2023-2024 NYD/CFP Stream of Consciousness
« Reply #377 on: January 06, 2024, 08:22:42 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on January 05, 2024, 01:08:12 PM
Maybe. But I don't think so. Washington hasn't seen a front 7 playing in the PAC as gnarly or deep as Michigan's nor a CB that can take a #1 WR out and lock down a side of the field by himself the way that Will Johnson can. Michigan's defense the last 3 years under the Ravens' 3-4 disciple DC's that John loaned out to Jeem have been designed to stop Ohio State offenses with more skill talent than what Washington has been bringing to the table- and they've been largely successful in doing so- and this 2023 defense is the best defense of the last 3 playoff teams. Lot of these same players have played elite skill talent- playing the kind of talent that Washington has at the skill positions will not be a shock to them.
McCord was on the 37 with a chance to win the Game,he's no Penix.If their O-Line can give him time it will be a hell of a game
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