OSU is a really good job. I'd argue elite, because you have the history and resources of a blue blood, without the fan expectations.
But somehow, no OSU coach can leave the program on good footing. The last OSU coach to retire as head coach of the school is Fred Taylor, in 1976.
Eldon Miller reached a couple of Sweet 16s, but jumped to Northern Iowa after an NIT Championship in 1986
Gary Williams jumped to his alma mater after 3 years
Randy Ayers did well early on with Gary's players, and then finished in the bottom 3 in the conference in his last 4 years
Jim O'Brien resurrected the program, won a couple of Big Ten titles, and reached a Final 4, but had a losing record in his last 2 seasons, and left the team on probation
Thad Matta got them back again, winning the first of 5 Big Ten titles in his second year. But after winning 5 in 7 years, failed to finish above 5th in his final 4 years, missing the tournament twice, never reaching the 2nd weekend.
Chris Holtman nearly won a Big Ten title his first year, got a 2 seed in 2021, and made (or would have made the tournament in each of his first 5 seasons). Now they are 9-25 in the Big Ten over the past two years, and headed to their 2nd straight Wednesday start in the BTT
We've been here a long time, I remember you pointing this out before they hired Holtmann. I answered the first part yesterday but this second part deserves a deeper look.
First, I'll add that it is actually worse than even what you have presented because Fred Taylor was permitted the freedom to retire but he fits the same pattern:
Fred Taylor 1958/9-1975/6:Hired for the 1958/59 season. Went .500 in his first year then took off:
- NC in year #2
- Three straight NC Game appearances (60-62)
- Five straight league titles (60-64)
After that killer start he slowed down and won just two more league titles in his last 12 years. One (68) included a F4 and the other (71) included an E8 but in his last five years at the helm (1971/2-1975/6) his teams finished:
- 18-6/10-4 2nd in 1972
- 14-10/8-6 t-3rd in 1973
- 9-15.4-10 8th in 1974
- 14-14/8-10 6th in 1975
- 6-20/2-16 10th (last) in 1976
Eldon Miller 1976/7-1985/6:Seems like a bit of a caretaker. Never finished above 12-6 in the league nor above 2nd. Made a couple S16's.
Gary Williams 1986/7-1988/9:We poached him from BC and his record in Columbus was actually pretty mediocre but what he dad at Maryland once he got back to his alma-mater makes you wonder "what if". In three seasons at Ohio State he never finished above .500 in the league and only made one NCAA appearance (1-1) so I don't think Ohio State fans were all that distraught to lose him but then in 22 years at Maryland:
- 1 NC
- 2 F4's
- 3 ACC Titles
- 7 S16's
Randy Ayers 1989/90-1996/7:Ayers started out on fire. In his first three seasons he had three NCAA appearances, two league titles, two S16's, and an E8 (lost to TCUN who were cheating on an industrial scale). His last five years were just dreadful. In those last five he had zero NCAA appearances and never finished at or above .500 in the league.
Jim O'Brien 1997/8-2003/4:
Another coach poached from BC and yet another coach who started out on fire then cratered. He inherited a mess and had a few players transfer to follow him but they had to sit out a year back then so his first season was a 1-15 last in the Big11Ten campaign but in his 2nd through 5th years in Columbus he made four straight NCAA appearances, won two league titles, and made a F4. Most of that ended up being vacated due to NCAA infractions. His last two years in Columbus were a dumpster fire. The team sucked then got probation and it was just a mess.
Thad Matta 2004/5-2016/7:We grabbed Matta from Xavier. His first year the team went .500 in the league and was under a postseason ban due to the issues that got his predecessor fired. Then he won back-to-back league titles and made the NCAACG. He followed that up with a NIT Championship (we got screwed, shoulda been in the NCAA) then seven straight NCAA Appearances (would have been 10 but for the 2008 slight) and in those seven years he also had four straight S16's, two E8's, and a F4.
Matta's last two years were not good. They went 21-14/11-7 second round of the NIT in his penultimate season then finished 17-15/7-11 in 2016/7. The ending of that season was BAD. The Buckeyes were the #11 seed in the BTT and *SHOULD* have had an easy win over the last place Scarlet Knights but looked like they REALLY didn't want to be in DC for the B1G Tournament and lost.
Eldon Miller and Gary Williams don't really fit the identified pattern here. They were more "caretakerish" with no great heights but they also didn't leave the program in shambles. The others fit your identified pattern. Taylor, Ayers, O'Brien, and Matta all hit incredible heights early in their tenures but cratered down the road.
Personally, I think that is bad luck and coincidence. I'd argue:
- Taylor just stayed past his time. If he had retired after the 1970/71 season, that is a phenomenal 12 year run of a NC, three NCGames, four F4's, five E8's, and seven league titles.
- With Ayers it could be that his success was more predicated on one or two REALLY good classes and I'm not even sure if those guys were his recruits, he may have inherited most of them when Williams went home.
- O'Brien's cheating was minimal compared to other scandals. I don't know what he was thinking.
- Thad Matta, I think, just didn't learn to delegate and might actually have turned that around if we had kept him a while.
In my optimistic opinion, the highs show what this program is capable of and the fact that a bunch of different coaches achieved VERY good results here makes me more comfortable in that assessment. Also the fact that the VERY good results are spread over multiple decades supports the argument that the program can achieve VERY good results again. They did in the 60's and a little in the 70's under Taylor. They did in the 90's under Ayers. They did in the 00's (aught's) under O'Brien. They did in the late aughts and teens under Matta. They should be able to in the 20's, 30's, and 40's under the next guy and the one after that and the one after him.
OTOH, the pattern that you point out is troubling. I argued above that the cratering late in their tenures is just bad luck and coincidence but I'll admit that it is troubling and concerning that ALL of them cratered late in their tenures. Fred Taylor and Thad Matta weren't technically fired but their performance cratered and they probably would have been if they hadn't "retired" or "left for medical reasons". With Ayers and O'Brien it is undeniable. They SUCKED in their last few years and got canned.