2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

MSU-Maryland was a fun game. Good one to catch before a long run. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Some rando trying to film herself storming the court ran over Caitlin Clark. Really what are the odds.

Lost in all the noise about the court storming and Caitlin Clark running into/being run into by a fan is that this was a humongous win for the Buckeyes and a pretty big deal for the league race.

Coming into this game the Hawkeyes were undefeated in the league. Ohio State and Indiana each had one loss but Indiana's loss was to Iowa and it wasn't close. Everyone else had at least three losses.

If Iowa had won in Columbus they'd have taken a big and probably insurmountable lead in the league. Instead, with Ohio State's win it looks like a three team race between the Hawkeyes, Buckeyes, and Hoosiers.

[medinabuckeye1]

I plan to update projections on Monday with the only change being Iowa moving down to Tier-3. 

Any other suggestions?

[Kris60]

She clearly tried to shove the fan with both hands.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWulT2LxDto

I think I’m more in line with you on that.  I first saw the far away angle and it looked like an accident.  The closer shot looks like Clark initiates contact and then does this overly dramatic spin and fall to the ground.

[TyphonInc]

I'm leaning towards an accident. 
But the obvious Buckeye fan fun of endorphins gets launched 10 feet and comes up smiling. 
Clark full of shame/anger, does a two-handed defense shove, then decides she needs to make sure this isn't her fault and falls to the ground. 

[Kris60]

https://twitter.com/crassiux/status/1749198992422908243?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1749198992422908243%7Ctwgr%5E5b28dadb6495f8755faea9a23623b7f6ed094fc2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2F247sports.com%2Fcollege%2Fnebraska%2Fboard%2F142%2FContents%2Fcaitlin-clark-225873243%2F%3Fpage%3D1

[Kris60]

I’ve done a 180 on this.  The more I watch it, the more I think it’s all Clark.

[FearlessF]

I'm of the opinion that it doesn't matter and I don't care

no blood, no foul

[847badgerfan]

Caitlin Laimbeer. 

[medinabuckeye1]

The difference is the projected result in home games against tier-1 and road games against tier-4 so potentially eight games but Iowa does not host MSU so we are down to seven:

• vs PU, 1/20
• at M, 1/27
• at IU, 1/30
• at PSU, 2/8
• at UMD, 2/14
• vs UW, 2/17
• vs IL, 3/10

Their home loss to M and their road win at MN would be upsets either way so it is just a question of what you think they will do in the seven games listed above.  If you think 4-3 or better, tier-2.  If you think 3-4 or worse, tier-3. 

This was my response to @boilerbanger 's suggestion that we move Iowa down to Tier-3 from Tier-2.  

Iowa lost at home to Purdue over the weekend and it wasn't close so I went ahead and made that change.  They are now 0-1 in games where it makes a difference with six more to play.  I will not support moving them back up unless/until they get above .500 in these games and/or they get to .500 in these AND pick up and have net positive upsets otherwise.  

Thus, the new tiers are:

• Wisconsin (-1/+1), Purdue, Illinois -1, Michigan State -1
• Northwestern, Nebraska
• Minnesota (-1/+1), Maryland +1, Iowa (-1/+1), Ohio State, Rutgers
• Penn State +1, Indiana +1, Michigan (-2/+1)

Upsets so far have been:

[medinabuckeye1]

Based on the above, the new projected final standings/BTT seeds are:

• 17-3/25-6 Wisconsin
• 16-4/27-4 Purdue
• 15-5/24-7 Illinois
• 14-6/22-9 Michigan State
• 12-8/22-9 Nebraska (wins tie with NU based on record vs UW)
• 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
• 8-12/17-14 Minnesota (wins tie with UMD based on H2H, no game in College Park)
• 8-12/16-15 Maryland
• *7-13/15-16 Iowa
• 7-13/15-16 Rutgers
• 7-13/13-18 Penn State
• 7-13/17-14 Ohio State
• 6-14/14-17 Indiana
• 4-16/9-22 Michigan

Tiebreakers for the 4-way tie between Iowa, Rutgers, Penn State, and Ohio State at 7-13 for 9th through 12th:
The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H:

• Iowa is projected to go 3-1 because they do not visit Columbus nor Piscataway
• Rutgers is projected to go 2-2 because they do not host Iowa nor visit Penn State
• Penn State is projected to go 2-3 because they do not host Rutgers
• Ohio State is projected to go 2-3 because they do not host Iowa

Iowa gets the #9 and Rutgers gets the #10 seed based on the above.  

Penn State and Ohio State move on to record against the best team(s) then the next, then the next, etc.  Penn State wins based on their upset of Wisconsin so the Nittany Lions get the #11 seed.  

Based on the above, the match-ups in the B1G Basketball Tournament at the Target Center in Minneapolis, MN would be:
Wednesday, March 13 (Peacock):

• #11 Penn State vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
• #12 Ohio State vs #13 Indiana, 630

Thursday, March 14 (BTN):

• #5 Nebraska vs tOSU/IU, 230
• #6 Northwestern vs PSU/M, 9pm
• #7 Minnesota vs #10 Rutgers, 630
• #8 Maryland vs #9 Iowa, noon

Friday, March 15 (BTN):

• #1 Wisconsin vs UMD/IA, noon
• #2 Purdue vs MN/RU, 630
• #3 Illinois vs NU/PSU/M, 9pm
• #4 Michigan State vs UNL/tOSU/IU, 230

Saturday, March 16 (CBS):

• UW/UMD/IA vs MSU/UNL/tOSU/IU, 1pm
• PU/MN/RU vs IL/NU/PSU/M, 330

Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):

• UW/UMD/IA/MSU/UNL/tOSU/IU vs PU/MN/RU/IL/NU/PSU/M, 330

To answer @Brutus Buckeye 's standing question, in order for tOSU and M to face each other in the BTT, they would BOTH have to make the CG by winning their Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday games.  It is HIGHLY unlikely but on the other hand it would be a high-stakes game since the winner would get a berth in the NCAA Tournament!  OTOH, the game would suck because the EXHAUSTED Buckeyes and Wolverines playing in their fifth game in five days would probably shoot something like 10% and the winner might only score 30 points.  


Not long ago some posters thought that Ohio State should be Tier-2 rather than Tier-3.  Ah, LoL.  That makes a difference for the home games against Tier-1 and the road games against Tier-4 so potentially seven games.  Ohio State does not host Michigan State so that knocks it down to six, those six are:

• at PSU, 12/9, L
• at IU, 1/3, L
• vs UW, 1/10, L
• at M, 1/15, L
• vs IL, 1/30
• vs PU, 2/18

The Buckeyes are 0-4 in these games with two to go.  Even if they beat both IL and PU at home, they STILL don't have an argument for Tier-2.  

[boilerbanger]

I’ve done a 180 on this.  The more I watch it, the more I think it’s all Clark.

Not arguing with you on this, but I would say the player should not be put in this position.

[medinabuckeye1]

Ohio State managed to win a January game today . . . But it was a home game against Penn State so don't get too excited. That said, Ohio State pretty thoroughly dominated the game and led from start to finish.

The Buckeyes are now 13-5/3-4 and on the bubble according to most projected brackets. In order to make the dance they will need to improve substantially.  They are Tier-3 because they are 0-4 in games that a Tier-2 team should win and a Tier-3 team should lose (@PSU, @IU, vsUW, @M). Here are the rest of their games followed by the Tier-3 projection and projected cumulative record then what the projection would be for a Tier-2 team and the projected cumulative record that way:

• At Nebraska, L 13-6/3-5, L 13-6/3-5
• At Northwestern, L 13-7/3-6, L 13-7/3-6
• Vs Illinois, L 13-8/3-7, W 14-7/4-6
• At Iowa, L 13-9/3-8, L 14-8/4-7
• Vs Indiana,  W 14-9/4-8, W 15-8/5-7
• Vs Maryland, W 15-9/5-8, W 16-8/6-7
• At Wisconsin, L 15-10/5-9, L 16-9/6-8
• Vs Purdue, L 15-11/5-10, W 17-9/7-8
• At Minnesota, L 15-12/5-11, L 17-10/7-9
• At Michigan State, L 15-13/5-12, L 17-11/7-10
• Vs Nebraska, W 16-13/6-12, W 18-11/8-10
• Vs Michigan, W 17-13/7-12, W 19-11/9-10
• At Rutgers, L 17-14/7-13, L 19-12/10-10

Bottom line:
If the Buckeyes continue to perform like a Tier-3 B1G team they will miss the Tournament. At 17-14/7-13:they would likely start on Wednesday and even a run all the way to the CG would only get them to 21-15.

If the Buckeyes improve and perform at a Tier-2 level from here out they'll hit the BTT on the bubble at 19-12/10-10. They'll need to AT LEAST win their Thursday BTT opener and an additional win in the quarter-final on Friday would probably lock down a tournament berth.

What they really need is to perform like a Tier-1 team the rest of the way (don't laugh, they have Tier-1 talent the problem is Tier-5 coaching). That would switch the following losses to wins:

• At Iowa 
• At Minnesota
• At Rutgers

That would take them to 22-9/13-7 and they'd be a lock.

Thoughts on this anyone?  

I think most neutral observers don't realize the magnitude of the catastrophe in Columbus.  If you just look at the standings the Buckeyes are 3-4 and tied for 8th in the league.  That obviously isn't idea but it isn't all that bad either.  It is recoverable or at least it would be if the first seven had been difficult games.  They problem is that they weren't.  Ohio State's first seven B1G games were probably the easiest first seven faced by any B1G team.  They had:

• One tough home game (vs UW) and lost, 0-1 cumulatively.  
• Three of the easiest possible road games (atM, atIU, atPSU) and went 0-3/0-4.  
• Three fairly easy home games (vsPSU, vsRU, vsMN) and went 3-0/3-4.  

Does anyone think they can recover?  

As strange as it may sound, I'm actually more optimistic than you might think.  I've grown accustomed to Holtmann's annual January collapses but that also means that I know that they USUALLY do end.  When it ends, they have sufficient talent to be one of the best in the B1G from here out.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Not arguing with you on this, but I would say the player should not be put in this position.

As a Buckeye, I'll admit to this.  Clark was in a place where she was supposed to be, the random fan who ran into her wasn't.  

The video does make it interesting.  When I first heard the allegation that Clark more-or-less flopped, I saw in on tOSU homer boards and didn't even look deeper just assuming it was homer nonsense but now that I watched the one that @Kris60 posted here, it does look like she flopped.  Still, she wasn't doing anything wrong by being there, the fan was.