2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Which would you perfer for your team:

NIT Championship  or  Sweet Sixteen, and a loss there.

S16 and it isn't close.

Don't get me wrong, when my team IS in the NIT, I want them to win it but at the end of the day they don't call it the Not Invited Tournament for no reason. 

[847badgerfan]

Sweet 16.

[FearlessF]

sweet 16

easily

Huskers won the NIT one year

[betarhoalphadelta]

Which would you perfer for your team:

NIT Championship  or  Sweet Sixteen, and a loss there.

S16. Nobody cares about the NIT. 

That may sound a little weird coming from me given my issues with the Purdue team over the last decade or so... Because Purdue was at the level where going to the S16 was "expected" and failure to ever progress beyond to the F4 it was underachievement. I.e. Purdue had some years when they didn't get there when they "should have", but didn't have years where they substantially exceeded it until this year. 

But getting to the S16 is a good outcome for basically any program. For many, that's about the ceiling of what they can reasonably expect--there are a lot of programs, even in the B1G, for whom a S16 run is a great year. And there are programs beyond them (I'd argue both Purdue and MSU are here, IU should be, and we can probably throw UW/Illinois/UM/OSU in) for which a S16 is a good year, and some years you're going to go farther and some years getting knocked out before that is a disappointment.

Even 1 seeds only make it past the S16 two-thirds of the time. So it's never truly a bad outcome. 

If you're in the NIT, that's already a bad outcome because you didn't make it to the real tournament. If you're in it, you might as well win it, but it's not like it's something anyone but your own program cares about. 

[medinabuckeye1]

S16. Nobody cares about the NIT.

That may sound a little weird coming from me given my issues with the Purdue team over the last decade or so... Because Purdue was at the level where going to the S16 was "expected" and failure to ever progress beyond to the F4 it was underachievement. I.e. Purdue had some years when they didn't get there when they "should have", but didn't have years where they substantially exceeded it until this year.

But getting to the S16 is a good outcome for basically any program. For many, that's about the ceiling of what they can reasonably expect--there are a lot of programs, even in the B1G, for whom a S16 run is a great year. And there are programs beyond them (I'd argue both Purdue and MSU are here, IU should be, and we can probably throw UW/Illinois/UM/OSU in) for which a S16 is a good year, and some years you're going to go farther and some years getting knocked out before that is a disappointment.

Even 1 seeds only make it past the S16 two-thirds of the time. So it's never truly a bad outcome.

If you're in the NIT, that's already a bad outcome because you didn't make it to the real tournament. If you're in it, you might as well win it, but it's not like it's something anyone but your own program cares about.

This, 100%.  

To put numbers to @betarhoalphadelta 's comments:
Of the 156 #1 seeds in the 39 Tournaments from expansion in 1985 to the current tournament, 132 of them (84.62%) made the S16, but only 103 (66.03%) made the E8.  As he said, a S16 is always at least a good year, even for the best programs.  B1G S16's from 1985-2024 (39 tournaments because there was no 2020):

• 17 Michigan State, almost every other year.  
• 12 Purdue, a little less than every third year.  
• tie 12 Michigan.  
• 10 Indiana, a little better than every fourth year.  
• tie 10 Wisconsin.  
• 9 Maryland, three every 13 years.  
• 8 Ohio State, a little better than one every fifth year. 
• 7 Illinois, one  every 5-6 years. 
• 3 Iowa, one every 13 years.  
• tie 3 Minnesota.  
• 1 Penn State, one every 39 years.  
• None, UNL, Rutgers, NU.  

Even MSU hasn't made half of the S16's since expansion so it is a better than average year even for them.  For everybody else it is something achieved less than once every three years.  

Another way of looking at it:
When I discussed Ohio State's success as a program in the long-running discussion of former Coach Holtmann I discussed their league titles (7 since 1985), their NCAA Appearances (22), their S16's (8), their E8's (5), and their F4's (3).  I didn't bring up their NIT Championship(s).  I had to put the "s" in parentheses because I know they have one and I think they might have more but I don't even care enough to look it up.  

[medinabuckeye1]

This year's F4 is two #1 seeds, a #4 seed, and a #11 seed.  That brings us to (in 39 tournaments):

• 63
• 31
• 17
• 15
• 9
• 3
• 3
• 6
• 2
• 1
• 6
• No #12 or below has ever made the F4.  

Prior performance:

• The previous 61 #1 seeds went 38-23 in the semi-final, 0.623
• The previous 14 #4 seeds went 4-10, 0.286
• The previous five #11 seeds all lost.  In fact no #9 seed or below has ever won a third-weekend Tournament game.  OTOH, prior to two years ago no #13 or below had ever won a second-weekend Tournament game but then #15 St. Peters drew #3 Purdue in the S16.  

[Cincydawg]

For one thing, an MCAA invite is a mark of a decent season for many teams out there.  And winning two games therein would be a big bonus, plus, if a team is a 10 see it means they managed to win in two upsets.

And NIT bid is, well, you know, and winning it is somehow tallest midget ...  

[betarhoalphadelta]

I was surprised to hear during the broadcast yesterday that Tennessee has never been to the Final Four. And then the next factoid, that they're the team with the most tournament appearances (25) without going to the Final Four, made sense. 

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/NoEscalators/status/1774574916173549874?t=bEe4OEtJuGJnMOzac0DyHQ&s=19

[medinabuckeye1]

The Tournament, what to expect:
Adding up the six teams from our league that made it, we should achieve roughly this:

• 4.01 teams in the second round (.9868PU+.8553IL+.6513UW+.4803UNL+.5197*2MSU&NU)
• 1.92 teams in the S16 (.8421PU+.5263IL+.3421UW+.1053UNL+.0526*2MSU&NU)
• 1.12 teams in the E8 (.6645PU+.2566IL+.0789UW+.0592UNL+.0329*2MSU&NU)
• 0.63 teams in the F4 (.4013PU+.1118IL+.0592UW+.0395UNL+.0132*2MSU&NU)
• 0.38 teams in the CG (.25PU+.0724IL+.0263UW+.0263UNL)
• 0.19 National Champions (.1579PU+.0263IL+.0066UNL)

So how has the league as a whole done?

• 4 teams in the second round compared to 4.01 expected so almost dead on.  
• 2 teams in the S16 compared to 1.92 expected so slightly ahead.  
• 2 teams in the E8 compared to 1.12 expected so well ahead.  
• 1 team in the F4 compared to 0.63 expected so well ahead.  

[Brutus Buckeye]

If Nebraska made it to the round of 32, it would be the best season in school history. They're the only P5 team that's never won an NCAA tournament game. 

[Cincydawg]

That is astonishing.

[FearlessF]

and embarrassing

[FearlessF]

2 very good games last night