2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[Abba]

The first 2 days had some great upsets.  Then we had 2 days of almost total chalk.  I wonder when is the last time we had all 1s and 2s make the S16.

[847badgerfan]

I think I read 1985.

[grillrat]

Heard on the radio that it happened in 2019.

[Cincydawg]

I happened to see UGA is going to play Ohio State in bball sometime soonish.  I didn't even know UGA was still playing, they started out decently and then faded badly.  I guess that's good enough for the NIT, which remarkably is still a thing.

We should have an "NIT" for CFB, oh wait ....

[medinabuckeye1]

Best case scenario.

D

If I were in your shoes I'd certainly be optimistic and to be honest, I think you are likely right but IMHO, this conclusion is at least three or four years too early.  There is just so much unknown about how a given coach will do in a given situation that I don't think anything is truly a "sure thing".  

[medinabuckeye1]

How the 2024 tournament compares to the previous 38:

First round:
We actually had slightly more "upsets" than usual.  I'm ignoring the 8/9 game here because that isn't much of an "upset".  In the previous 38 tournaments there were 237 teams seeded #10 and below that won their opener.  That works out to just over six per year on average (237/38=6.24).  This year we had eight:

• 1 #10 seed
• 3 #11 seeds
• 2 #12 seeds
• 1 #13 seed
• 1 #14 seed

Second round:
Not many upsets here.  Fully three-quarters of the S16 is straight up chalk and half of the rest are #5 seeds which isn't much of an upset.  There is one #6 seed and one #11 who got lucky and only had to beat a #14 to get in so their path to the S16 was 6-14.  Must be nice!  In the previous 38 tournaments there were 137 teams seeded #7 and below to make the S16.  That works out to a little under four per year (137/38=3.61).  This year there is only one.  


One other statistical oddity:
With the #11 seeds winning three openers this year and the #10 seeds only winning one, the #11 seeds now have more opening wins than the #10 seeds.  The only other instance of a seed having more wins than a higher seed is that #9 seeds have (now) 82 opening wins and #8 seeds have (now) only 74.  An interesting difference is that unlike with the #8/9 situation, in this case the #11 seeds do better deeper into the tournament as well.  Specifically:

• #8 seeds lead #9 seeds 82-74 in the opener
• #8 seeds have taken out a #1 to make the S16 16 times while #9 seeds have only made the S16 eight times.  That actually understates the gap because two of the wins by #9 seeds were over #16 seeds so #8 seeds have taken down #1 seeds more than twice as many times as #9 seeds.  
• #8 seeds have made the E8 nine times, nearly twice as often as #9 seeds (five).  
• #8 seeds have made the F4 six times, that is three times as many as #9 seeds.  
• #8 seeds have four national semi-final wins.  #9 seeds are still looking for their first.  
• #8 seeds have a National Championship.  

#11 seeds have now won their opener more often than #10 seeds but #11 seeds maintain that advantage:

• #11's are 61-95 in the first round, #10's are 60-96.  
• #11's have made 27 S16's, #10's just 24.  
• #11's have made nine E8's, same for #10's.  
• #11's have made five F4's, #10's just one.  
• Neither a #10 nor a #11 seed has ever won a F4 game.  This is true for #9 seeds and below.  

[MaximumSam]

I liked May and OSU was heavily linked to him before rolling with Diebler. It should be interesting how both of them do over the next few years. 

[medinabuckeye1]

The Tournament, what to expect:
Adding up the six teams from our league that made it, we should achieve roughly this:

• 4.01 teams in the second round (.9868PU+.8553IL+.6513UW+.4803UNL+.5197*2MSU&NU)
• 1.92 teams in the S16 (.8421PU+.5263IL+.3421UW+.1053UNL+.0526*2MSU&NU)
• 1.12 teams in the E8 (.6645PU+.2566IL+.0789UW+.0592UNL+.0329*2MSU&NU)
• 0.63 teams in the F4 (.4013PU+.1118IL+.0592UW+.0395UNL+.0132*2MSU&NU)
• 0.38 teams in the CG (.25PU+.0724IL+.0263UW+.0263UNL)
• 0.19 National Champions (.1579PU+.0263IL+.0066UNL)

So far our league is matching historical performance per seed almost exactly:

• We "should" have gotten roughly 2.5 opening round wins out of PU, IL, and UW and only got 2.  
• We "should" have gotten roughly 1.5 opening round wins out of UNL, MSU, and NU and we got 2.  

Wisconsin's early loss balances with winning two of three 8/9 games.  

Moving forward, it is mostly on Purdue.  #3 seeds only make the E8 roughly at a one-in-four clip.  That said, #3 seeds that DO make the S16 win at roughly a .500 clip (39-41) so . . . maybe?  

#1 seeds make the E8 at roughly a two-in-three clip and #1 seeds that make the S16 are slightly better at 101-27.  

Where do we go from here:
Purdue should have a geographic advantage this weekend playing Gonzaga in Detroit.  If they win, they should maintain that advantage against either Creighton or Tennessee in the E8.   

If Purdue makes the F4 they'll play Houston, Dook, NCST, or Marquette in the Semi-Final.  

Geography shouldn't be a factor for Illinois' S16 game against Iowa State but if they win they likely get #1 overall seed UCONN in their backyard (Boston) so yeah, good luck with that.  

If Illinois does manage to get to the F4 they'll face UNC, Bama, Clemson, or Arizona in the Semi-Final.  

[Abba]

I liked May and OSU was heavily linked to him before rolling with Diebler. It should be interesting how both of them do over the next few years.

Yeah, reminds me of Archie Miller / Chris Holtmann a few years ago.  Both were failures, but Archie at IU got fired more quickly.

[medinabuckeye1]

Yeah, reminds me of Archie Miller / Chris Holtmann a few years ago.  Both were failures, but Archie at IU got fired more quickly.

Exactly, too early to say. It is entirely possible that we (tOSU fans) will be wishing we'd gotten Dusty but it is also possible we'll be glad we stuck with Diebler.

[SuperMario]

Nah.


[img width=500 height=332.997]https://i.imgur.com/1cgiASH.png[/img]

I'm actually not a fan and even less in the NIL landscape, although Michigan's basketball NIL setup is pretty low level anyways so it may not be the coaches issue anyways. My stance is that if you can't win big in bball at UCLA, why would you be able to in Ann Arbor? Not a bad coach, just not elite. I'll take the optimistic higher ceiling that could blow up in my face approach. Personally, I've been in Beilein withdrawal for a long time. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I'll take the optimistic higher ceiling that could blow up in my face approach.

I'm the same way vis-a-vis BB coaches.  In football I want to be "good" and hope for NC's.  In BB I'd love to see tOSU win an NC.  Their last was before I was born.  I've enjoyed their F4 runs, even went to one.  As far as being "good", eh.  I don't care all that much whether or not they make the Tournament except insofar as making it is a necessary precursor to getting to the second weekend.  

[ELA]

I'm the same way vis-a-vis BB coaches.  In football I want to be "good" and hope for NC's.  In BB I'd love to see tOSU win an NC.  Their last was before I was born.  I've enjoyed their F4 runs, even went to one.  As far as being "good", eh.  I don't care all that much whether or not they make the Tournament except insofar as making it is a necessary precursor to getting to the second weekend. 

See, I'm the opposite.  College basketballs format is set that any solid team "can" win a national title.  UConn won it last year as a 4 seed.  Tell me the next time a non top 12 team has a prayer of winning a college football title.  No football team can be "good" and hope for NCs.  You have to be of a certain elite breed.  College basketball, any good team can win one.

[medinabuckeye1]

See, I'm the opposite.  College basketballs format is set that any solid team "can" win a national title.  UConn won it last year as a 4 seed.  Tell me the next time a non top 12 team has a prayer of winning a college football title.  No football team can be "good" and hope for NCs.  You have to be of a certain elite breed.  College basketball, any good team can win one.

I didn't explain my position very well and we are closer together than it seemed at first.  As an Ohio State fan, my definition of "good" in FB is basically NC Contender.  For BB, I want S16's.  Both things point toward NC's.  I figure that if Ohio State consistently fields FB teams that are NC Contenders, they'll win the NC once in a while.  Similarly, if Ohio State consistently makes the S16, I figure they'll win an NC eventually.