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Topic: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #112 on: August 26, 2022, 10:22:53 AM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on August 26, 2022, 09:55:28 AM
so if 1 team pops out as clear winner, they get it, but conversely if 1 team pops out as clear loser, they drop them and go back to 2 (or 3 or whatever) team tie breaker?
Yes, if two are left but not three. Here is the link and here is the relevant section:
"
  • If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 8 will be followed until a determination is made.  If only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If three or more teams remain tied after any step, move to next step in tiebreaker with remaining tied teams."



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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #113 on: August 26, 2022, 10:36:34 AM »
Week 13 standings

ACC
ATLANTIC
  • Clemson (6-2) 10-2
  • Florida State (5-3) 8-4
  • Louisville (4-4) 7-5
  • NC State (4-4) 7-5
  • Syracuse (4-4) 7-5
  • Wake Forest (4-4) 7-5
  • Boston College (3-5) 5-7
COASTAL
  • North Carolina (7-1) 10-2
  • Pittsburgh (6-2) 10-2
  • Miami (6-2) 9-3
  • Virginia (3-5) 7-5
  • Georgia Tech (2-6) 3-9
  • Duke (1-7) 5-7
  • Virginia Tech (1-7) 2-10

BIG XII
  • Oklahoma (8-1) 10-2
  • Oklahoma State (7-2) 9-3
  • Baylor (6-3) 8-4
  • Texas (5-4) 7-5
  • Iowa State (4-5) 6-6
  • TCU (4-5) 6-6
  • Texas Tech (4-5) 6-6
  • West Virginia (4-5) 6-6
  • Kansas State (3-6) 5-7
  • Kansas (0-9) 1-11

BIG TEN
EAST
  • Ohio State (9-0) 12-0
  • Michigan (8-1) 11-1
  • Michigan State (5-4) 7-5
  • Penn State (4-5) 6-6
  • Indiana (3-6) 4-8
  • Rutgers (1-8) 4-8
  • Maryland (1-8) 3-9
WEST
  • Iowa (6-3) 9-3
  • Wisconsin (6-3) 9-3
  • Purdue (6-3) 8-4
  • Minnesota (5-4) 8-4
  • Nebraska (5-4) 8-4
  • Illinois (2-7) 4-8
  • Northwestern (2-7) 3-9

PAC 12
NORTH
  • Oregon (8-1) 10-2
  • Washington (6-3) 9-3
  • Oregon State (4-5) 7-5
  • Stanford (4-5) 5-7
  • California (3-6) 5-7
  • Washington State (3-6) 4-8
SOUTH
  • Utah (6-3) 9-3
  • USC (6-3) 8-4
  • Arizona State (5-4) 8-4
  • UCLA (5-4) 8-4
  • Arizona (3-6) 5-7
  • Colorado (1-8) 1-11

SEC
EAST
  • Georgia (8-0) 12-0
  • Tennessee (6-2) 9-3
  • Kentucky (4-4) 7-5
  • Florida (3-5) 5-7
  • Missouri (1-7) 4-8
  • South Carolina (1-7) 3-9
  • Vanderbilt (1-7) 2-10
WEST
  • Alabama (7-1) 11-1
  • Ole Miss (6-2) 10-2
  • Texas A&M (5-3) 9-3
  • Auburn (4-4) 8-4
  • Mississippi State (4-4) 7-5
  • LSU (3-5) 7-5
  • Arkansas (3-5) 5-7

AMERICAN
  • Houston (8-0) 12-0
  • Central Florida (7-1) 10-2
  • Cincinnati (7-1) 11-1
  • South Florida (6-2) 7-5
  • Memphis (5-3) 8-4
  • Tulane (3-5) 6-6
  • Navy (3-5) 4-7
  • SMU (2-6) 6-6
  • East Carolina (2-6) 4-8
  • Tulsa (1-7) 4-8
  • Temple (0-8) 2-10

CONFERENCE USA
  • UTSA (7-1) 8-4
  • Western Kentucky (7-1) 11-2
  • UAB (6-2) 9-3
  • Louisiana Tech (5-3) 7-5
  • Florida Atlantic (4-4) 6-6
  • UTEP (4-4) 5-7
  • Middle Tennessee (3-5) 5-7
  • North Texas (3-5) 5-7
  • FIU (2-6) 4-8
  • Rice (2-6) 3-9
  • Charlotte (1-7) 2-10

MAC
EAST
  • Akron (6-2) 7-5
  • Buffalo (5-3) 7-5
  • Kent State (5-3) 6-6
  • Miami(Ohio) (4-4) 6-6
  • Ohio (2-6) 4-8
  • Bowling Green (1-7) 2-10
WEST
  • Western Michigan (7-1) 8-4
  • Toledo (7-1) 9-3
  • Ball State (3-5) 5-7
  • Northern Illinois (3-5) 5-7
  • Eastern Michigan (3-5) 5-7
  • Central Michigan (2-6) 4-8

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
  • Colorado State (7-1) 10-2
  • Air Force (6-2) 9-3
  • Boise State (6-2) 9-3
  • Utah State (5-3) 7-5
  • Wyoming (3-5) 4-8
  • New Mexico (0-8) 2-10
WEST
  • San Diego State (6-2) 9-3
  • Fresno State (6-2) 9-3
  • San Jose State (3-5) 6-6
  • Hawaii (3-5) 6-7
  • UNLV (2-6) 3-9
  • Nevada (1-7) 3-9

SUN BELT
EAST
  • Appalachian State (7-1) 9-3
  • Marshall (7-1) 10-2
  • Coastal Carolina (5-3) 7-5
  • Georgia State (5-3) 7-5
  • Old Dominion (4-4) 6-6
  • Georgia Southern (3-5) 5-7
  • James Madison (0-8) 1-10
WEST
  • Louisiana (6-2) 9-3
  • Southern Miss (5-3) 8-4
  • Arkansas State (5-3) 7-5
  • Texas State (3-5) 5-7
  • Troy (3-5) 4-8
  • South Alabama (2-6) 3-9
  • UL Monroe (1-7) 2-10

INDEPENDENTS
  • Army (9-2)
  • Notre Dame (9-3)
  • Liberty (8-4)
  • BYU (7-5)
  • Massachusetts (5-7)
  • NM State (4-8)
  • Connecticut (1-11)
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #114 on: August 26, 2022, 10:46:09 AM »
Looks a lot like last season ...
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #115 on: August 26, 2022, 10:50:57 AM »
November 27 Poll
  • OHIO STATE (12-0) 1
  • Georgia (12-0) 2
  • Alabama (11-1) 5
  • MICHIGAN (11-1) 3
  • Clemson (10-2) 6
  • Houston (12-0) 7
  • North Carolina (10-2) 10
  • Ole Miss (10-2) 11
  • Oklahoma (10-2) 13
  • Oregon (10-2) 4
  • Texas A&M (9-3) 14
  • Tennessee (9-3) 16
  • Cincinnati (11-1) 15
  • Oklahoma State (9-3) 17
  • Pittsburgh (10-2) 9
  • Notre Dame (9-3) 8
  • WISCONSIN (9-3) 20
  • IOWA (9-3) 21
  • Miami (9-3) 25
  • Washington (9-3) 24
  • Utah (9-3) 12
  • USC (8-4) -
  • Auburn (8-4) 18
  • PURDUE (8-4) -
  • Florida State (8-4) -
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #116 on: August 26, 2022, 10:51:57 AM »
If Alabama and OSU win, can't wait for a 2 SEC/2 Big Ten CFP
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #117 on: August 26, 2022, 10:58:02 AM »
If OSU LOSES (which is unlikely), things get interesting.  I think UGA is in period, as per last season.  Bama in with a win.  Michigan likely is in, again.  Cincinnati at 11-1 is looking, well, not in, but Houston is probably in with a win if someone is upset.

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FearlessF

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #118 on: August 26, 2022, 11:24:00 AM »
If OSU LOSES (which is unlikely),

you do understand how this simulation picks winners?
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #119 on: August 26, 2022, 12:05:51 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 26, 2022, 10:58:02 AM
I think UGA is in period, as per last season.
I think this applies to both tOSU and UGA because even with losses in their CG'S they'd be 12-1.

Thusband, as I see it the CFP contenders are:
  • tOSU
  • UGA
  • Bama if they win - and they are definitively out if they lose

After that it gets tricky. Michigan is sitting there at 11-1 and #4 with a very "good" loss but they aren't playing. Meanwhile #5 and #7 are both 10-2 and one of them will be an 11-2 P5 champion. Do they leapfrog the Wolverines?

#6 Houston is 12-0 and will be playing #13 Cincy so they also have the potential to leapfrog the Wolverines. 

Finally, #9 Oklahoma and #10 Oregon are both 10-2 and playing ranked teams in CG's so there is leapfrog potential there too.


My guess as to CFP Participants in ranked order:
  • 13-0 UGA if they win the SECCG
  • 13-0 tOSU if they win the B1GCG
  • 12-1 Bama if they win the SECCG
  • 12-1 UGA if they lose the SECCG
  • 12-1 tOSU if they lose the B1GCG
  • 11-2 ACC Champion Clemson/UNC - the four teams above here are guaranteed spots, below here it is dependent on Bama losing
  • 13-0 Houston if the win
  • 11-1 Michigan 

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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #120 on: August 26, 2022, 12:24:19 PM »
If Michigan is 11-1 with their loan loss being to the number one team in the country on the road, I don't see how you put in a two loss ACC champion, or an undefeated Houston, that
 never had to play Cincinnati.  Remember, they are playing UCF in the title game
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #121 on: August 26, 2022, 01:23:16 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 26, 2022, 12:24:19 PM
If Michigan is 11-1 with their loan loss being to the number one team in the country on the road, I don't see how you put in a two loss ACC champion, or an undefeated Houston, that
 never had to play Cincinnati.  Remember, they are playing UCF in the title game
I didn't realize that about Houston and that does make a difference. 

I think Michigan fans would want to root for Ohio State in the B1GCG because that argument you just made is a lot stronger if tOSU is 13-0 rather than 12-1.
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FearlessF

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #122 on: August 26, 2022, 01:38:52 PM »
hah!
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #123 on: August 26, 2022, 02:41:49 PM »
Also, I think everybody outside of Tuscaloosa would be better off with a UGA win in the SECCG.


  • Ohio State: As I said above I think the Buckeyes are clearly in at either 13-0 or 12-1 so the SECCG is of no consequence to tOSU's chances of making the playoff but it is of major consequence to tOSU's chances of winning the CFP. In theory the best-case-scenario for Ohio State would be for Bama to beat UGA thus preserving tOSU's spot at #1 AND for the two 12-1 SECCG participants to finish #2 and #3. That way tOSU would draw #4 in the semi-final and #4 would be clearly weaker than Bama/UGA no matter who it was. As a practical matter though I just can't see the CFP committee setting up regional rematches unless it is completely unavoidable and if it ended up being tOSU, Bama, UGA, M then I definitely couldn't see the two semi-finals being tOSU/M and UGA/Bama so they'd avoid that by dropping UGA to #4.
  • Everyone else: A Bama win means that Bama and UGA both go to the CFP along with tOSU so there is only one other spot. A win by UGA is vastly preferable because it almost certainly knocks 2-loss non-champion Bama out of contention since there will be both a team with less losses (Michigan) and at least one team with the same number of losses and a league title (Clemson/UNC winner).

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rolltidefan

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #124 on: August 26, 2022, 02:44:49 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 26, 2022, 02:41:49 PM
Also, I think everybody outside of Tuscaloosa would be better off with a UGA win in the SECCG.




that's just mean
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #125 on: August 26, 2022, 02:47:25 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on August 26, 2022, 02:44:49 PM
that's just mean
LoL.

Nothing personal or against Bama, just a strategic issue.
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