2022 Michigan Offseason Thread

[Mdot21]

Michigan is ranked #4 in the SP+ pre-season rankings. 

Ohio State ranked #1. 

[MrNubbz]

As long as it's SP and not SI - I'd start looking forward to 2023 if that was the case

[Cincydawg]

The 2022 recruiting class is in the books, transfer portal activity has slowed down at least a hair, and coaches are taking brief vacations before gearing up for spring football. That must mean one thing: It's time for SP+ projections!
Here's how SP+ saw the world at the end of 2021. Now let's see what's changed since then. I base these projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up more than two-thirds of the projections formula.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the last few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning in 2022, this category also is impacted a bit by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers. This is a new thing, and I'm not giving it much weight right away, but it will have a slight impact. This piece makes up about one-fifth of the projections formula.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle, but the projections are better with it than without.

[ELA]

As long as it's SP and not SI - I'd start looking forward to 2023 if that was the case

You mean picking Ken Simonton and Oregon State #1 didn't pan out?

[ELA]

Longtime Michigan radio broadcaster Frank Beckmann dies at only 72.  His call montage is basically my college football youth


https://youtu.be/8ITJUOeu98w

[Cincydawg]

Michigan is ranked #4 in the SP+ pre-season rankings.

Ohio State ranked #1.

Has anyone looked at how predictive this rating is?  I sorta sense click bait.

Of course, a ranking that just mirrors recruiting and last year's finish with a sprinkle of what was lost won't be awful.

[ELA]

I would think the transfer portal has also thrown a bit of a wrench into whatever preseason metrics they had used for years

[Mdot21]

Has anyone looked at how predictive this rating is?  I sorta sense click bait.

Of course, a ranking that just mirrors recruiting and last year's finish with a sprinkle of what was lost won't be awful.

Haven’t really looked into it deep, but SP+ is far more legit than most pre-season ratings imo. 

Georgia is #2 in SP+ 2022 pre-season and Bama #3. 

[Cincydawg]

I'm just idly curious as to whether it really is more predictive of the final outcome than regular polls, or the various magazines.

I don't much care really, I think rankings at this point are all click bait.  CFN used to throw in some real outliers clearly intended to foment dissension.

[MaximumSam]

I'm just idly curious as to whether it really is more predictive of the final outcome than regular polls, or the various magazines.

I don't much care really, I think rankings at this point are all click bait.  CFN used to throw in some real outliers clearly intended to foment dissension.

He typically compares his rankings to whether they beat Vegas or not. They usually do pretty well and Vegas seems to have adjusted their rankings to make them closer to his.

[Temp430]

Jim Harbaugh's contract has been extended to five years.  No other information is available at this point.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/2022/02/16/jim-harbaugh-michigan-agree-reworked-five-year-contract/6819950001/

[Cincydawg]

He typically compares his rankings to whether they beat Vegas or not. They usually do pretty well and Vegas seems to have adjusted their rankings to make them closer to his.

OK, maybe, but everyone looks at the same factors and metrics when releasing preseason polls, I don't know what is unique about SP+ other than it professes to be somehow an algorithm of some sort, I think.  Everyone basically looks at least year's outcome and adjusts for losses and recruiting.  Usually, if a thing like this is remarkably predictive, it gets snapped up widely and quickly because of betting, and publicity, and it replaces other techniques.

I recall last year Clemson was favored over UGA based on, well, previous history, recruiting, and losses.  It was a close game.  Anyway, I view preseason polls of any ilk with a grain of salt.  They are of course broadly correct but ELA does the same sort of thing here, and seems to be about as correct.

[Mdot21]

Denard Robinson hired by Jim Harbaugh in a Director of Player Personnel role - the same role that Courtney Morgan had before he left for Washington. It's a recruiting role- and Morgan was actually very instrumental in Michigan recruiting some West coast kids.

This has potential to be huge boon for Michigan in South Florida, where Denard is from and still a local South Florida HS legend. Love the hire.

Obligatory highlight/tribute reel....man he was so god damn quick and fast. If only he had a legit throwing arm- he'd have been insane.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2xuk-t6iFA

[Mdot21]

https://mgoblue.com/news/2022/2/24/football-denard-robinson-named-assistant-director-of-player-personnel.aspx