This has to be the least exciting conference title race I can remember in the B1G.
Here at roughly the half-way point the Boilermakers are three games ahead of everyone in the loss column.
Prior to last night I was thinking that *MAYBE* the Hoosiers could give them a little competition.
If Indiana had won in College Park, then taken down Purdue in Bloomington this weekend they'd have gotten to 8-4 and just two games behind the Boilermakers (assuming PU beats PSU tonight) with a H2H win over them and one more chance (2/25 in Mackey).
With Indiana's loss in College Park dropping them to 6-5 I don't think anyone will challenge Purdue in the slightest and they'll likely clinch in February.
The trade-off, of course, is that there is a very exciting race between 11 teams (all but PU, UNL, and MN) for:
- Getting the last three double-byes
- Avoiding having to play on Wednesday.
Barring a stupendous collapse by Purdue or a massive improvement by either UNL or MN those other 11 teams will be split between:
- Three will get double-byes (the #2, #3, and #4 seeds)
- Six will open up on Thursday (the #5 through #10 seeds)
- Two will have to play on Wednesday (the #11 and #12 seeds).
The odd thing is that I'm not even sure what a given team should want. I actually kinda like Ohio State's current projection. They project to finish 9-11/17-14 and get the #11 seed. That would mean:
- Wednesday they'd get what *SHOULD* be an easy tune-up game against MN. The tune-up historically has been an advantage on day two and it helps for win volume. Assuming they win they improve to 18-14 and move on to:
- Thursday they'd get #6 Illinois. Most years the #6 seed is substantially better than the #11 seed but in this case the only difference is that #6 had an easier schedule than #11 so I would expect tOSU to win. More win volume and this time a quality win. Assuming they win they improve to 19-14 and move on to:
- Friday they'd get #3 Indiana. This would be a VERY tough game. The Buckeyes would be playing their third game in three days against a well rested opponent. Indiana also travels well but at least the Tournament isn't in Indianapolis this time. The upside is that losing a neutral-site game to Indiana wouldn't be damaging and a win would almost certainly lock up a Tournament bid. Assuming they win they'd improve to 20-14 and move on to:
- Saturday they'd get the Rutgers/Maryland/Penn State winner. At this point they'd be a Tournament lock and only playing for seeding but it certainly helps to be opposite Purdue in the bracket. I think that the Buckeyes would have approximately zero chance of knocking off Purdue in their fourth game in four days but in this scenario the Buckeyes would already have wins over all three potential Saturday opponents. Winning a fourth game in four days is tough but none of the potential match-ups seem hopeless.