2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Is anybody expecting much of a game tonight?

I expect UCONN to win on a laugher.

[MaximumSam]

Is anybody expecting much of a game tonight?

I expect UCONN to win on a laugher.

Hard to say...UConn has been really good in the tourney. But SDSU is a big tough veteran team and probably the best team UConn will have played, especially defensively. 

[FearlessF]

I'm expecting a good game

SDSU is on a good run

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm judging almost entirely by the semi-final games but, IMHO:

• SDSU looked like a #5 seed that was lucky to make the F4, luckier to draw a #9, and lucky to win.
• UCONN looked like a #1 seed.

[MaximumSam]

Florida Atlantic is better than Miami by both Torvik and KenPom; I don't think seeding is nearly as important as it used to be. 

[Kris60]

Picking SDSU.

[bayareabadger]

Florida Atlantic is better than Miami by both Torvik and KenPom; I don't think seeding is nearly as important as it used to be.

Seeding reflects resume, which in part reflects schedule opportunity. 

I think seeding still matters to a large degree, but sometimes it won't. This likely be the first 4 seed to win since 1997, second ranked lower than 3 since then. 

[MaximumSam]

Seeding reflects resume, which in part reflects schedule opportunity.

I think seeding still matters to a large degree, but sometimes it won't. This likely be the first 4 seed to win since 1997, second ranked lower than 3 since then.

Sure, though with the transfer portal the difference between teams 5-25 feels pretty danged tight. College basketball feels a lot more like a game of Yahtzee. 

[ELA]

I also think part of it is a reliance on the NBA metrics.  3>2, and over 82 games, and best of 7 series, you can rely on that.  Over 30 games, in a single elimination tournament, it's the optimal strategy, but also provides for greater variance.  So I think you are more apt to see the elite teams have a crazy bad night more often than you would 5+ years ago

[GopherRock]

Brian Dutcher's buyout is only $1M if the U of M pays it, $6 million for everyone else. Methinks Mark Could hired the wrong coach. 

[Hawkinole]

A photo from my little sister, a former Iowa Hawkeyes WBB player from the 1970s, at the NCAA WBB Final Four championship game.

[CatsbyAZ]

Brian Dutcher's buyout is only $1M if the U of M pays it, $6 million for everyone else. Methinks Mark Could hired the wrong coach.

Glad somebody posted this before it looked like I was getting ahead of myself. I can't imagine Brian Dutcher, fresh off leading a Mountain West program into the Final Four, won't be on everybody AD's hotboard. Starting with Michigan whenever Juwan Howards bickers himself out of the gig. Beyond this year's successful tournament run, Dutcher's consistency with San Diego State is noteworthy. Michigan (or whoever) won't just be hiring a one-hit wonder.

[847badgerfan]

Learned how to cheat under Fish, and now can do it under the rules.

Perfect.

[medinabuckeye1]

Stats updated for the 2023 Tournament.  

There have now been 38 Tournaments since expansion in 1985 (1985-2019 and 2021-2023).  

F4 teams and Champions:
This year's 4-5-5-9 F4 was incredibly unlikely when looking at past performance.  UCONN was only the 14th #4 seed to reach the F4 while SDSU and Miami were the 8th and 9th #5 seeds and FAU was the second #9 seed.  

Teams to make the F4 by seed:

• 61 
• 31
• 17
• 14
• 9
• 3
• 3
• 6
• 2
• 1
• 5
• and below, zero

Teams to make the National Championship Game and their records within the CG by seed:

• 38, 24-14
• 12, 5-7
• 11, 4-7
• 4, 2-2
• 4, 0-4
• 2, 1-1
• 1, 1-0
• 4, 1-3
• and below, zero

Cinderella:

I track the number of #13 seeds and below to get out of the first round on a five year, 10 year, and 15 year rolling basis.  On each metric, the lowest seeds started out pretty strong in the 1980's and early 1990's, bottomed out in the 2000's and have now rebounded to all-time highs:

Number of #13's and below to get out of the first round, five-year:
In the first five tournaments (1985-1989) 10 #13's and below got out of the first round (average of two per year).  That jumped up to 11 for 1987-1991 then drifted steadily downward bottoming out at just five (average of one per year) in both 2000-2004 and 2003-2007.  Since then it has been climbing steadily and in the last five Tournaments (2018-2019, 2021-2023) a total of 12 #13's and below got out of the first round.  That matches the all-time high also set from 2012-2016.  This represents an average of 2.4 per year.  

Number of #13's and below to get out of the first round, 10 year:
In the first 10 tournaments (1985-1994) 18 #13's and below got out of the first round (average of 1.8 per year).  That jumped to 20 for 1986-1995 then drifted steadily downward bottoming out at just 12 for the 10 tournaments from 2000-2009 and again for 2002-2011 (average of 1.2 per year).  After that it steadily climbed until reaching 21 in the 10 tournaments from 2011-2021 and we've remained at that level ever since, average of 2.1 per year.  

Number of #13's and below to get out of the first round, 15 year:
In the first 15 tournaments (1985-1989) 28 #13's and below got out of the first round (average of 1.9 per year).  It was 27 for 1986-1990 then hit 28 again for 1987-1991 before drifting steadily downward.  It bottomed out at just 21 in the 15 year cycles ending in 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011 (average of 1.4 per tournament).  After that it steadily climbed until reaching an all-time high of 30 (average of 2 per tournament) for the most recent 15 tournaments, 2008-2023.

These disparities aren't that big.  Looking at the 15 year, the highest ever is 30 or 2 per year and the lowest ever is 21 or 1.4 per year.  That said, there is a noticeable trend that in roughly the 2000's either:

• The top-4 seeds were better, or
• The bottom-4 seeds were worse

I can't really explain that so if anybody has any thoughts, I'd be interested to hear them.