Took a break last year to run the full season sim, which wound up being pretty damn similar to what really happened unfortunately (Alabama NC, joined in the CFP by OSU, Clemson and Georgia)
Back to the 16 team (10 autobid) tournament this year though, like I have every other year on this board since 2004.
Going into the final weekend, here are the scenarios...
SEC
Georgia (1) - almost assuredly in either way; can't see 6 non-conference champs passing them
Alabama (3) - currently #1 at large; can win an auto-bid, but would likely get in either way
Ole Miss (8) - currently #4 at large, should still get in. It appears the only way out would be if Alabama, Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State ALL lost, and ALL stayed ahead of Ole Miss
BIG TEN
Michigan (2) - almost assuredly in either way; can't see 6 non-conference champs passing them
Ohio State (7) - currently #3 at large. Locked in sans something screwy
Michigan State (11) - currently #5 at large. Possibly in, but if Michigan and Cincinnati both lose, they could find themselves on the outside
Iowa (13) - have to win Big Ten championship game
AMERICAN
Cincinnati (4) - will get autobid with a win, probably will remain a top 6 at large with a loss
Houston (21) - have to win AAC championship game
BIG XII
Oklahoma State (5) - win and they are in; lose and they should certainly be rooting for favorites, but are likely in
Baylor (9) - currently #4 at large, can just win and get in, otherwise, even if Michigan and Cincinnati both lose, they should remain the #6 at large
INDEPENDENTS
Notre Dame (6) - currently #2 at large, basically a lock
BYU (12) - currently #6 at large; needs all of the higher ranked teams to win, or if one loses, needs it to not be Oklahoma State, so that they can potentially jump Baylor
PAC 12
Oregon (10) - win and they are in; lose and they would be ok, if they remain ahead of Michigan State and/or BYU, depending on whether Michigan and/or Cincinnati lose
Utah (17) - have to win the Pac 12 Championship Game
ACC
Pittsburgh (15) - have to win ACC Championship Game
Wake Forest (16) - have to win ACC Championship Game
MOUNTAIN WEST
San Diego State (19) - have to win MWC Championship Game
Utah State (54) - have to win MWC Championship Game
SUN BELT
Louisiana (24) - have to win SBC Championship Game
Appalachian State (29) - have to win SBC Championship Game
CONFERENCE USA
UTSA (36) - have to win CUSA Championship Game
Western Kentucky (47) - have to win CUSA Championship Game
MAC
Northern Illinois (76) - have to win MAC Championship Game
Kent State (83) - have to win MAC Championship Game
