It's hard to say, but the non-helmet CFP teams (MSU, Washington) didn't get a finalist. Shilique Calhoun had multiple elite years on title contending MSU teams, and wasn't in the Heisman discussion. Budda Baker on a CFP Washington team in 2016 had a better year than Peppers. The sample size is too small to say anything with certainty, but I think it's trends towards begin more narrative driven from a voter base that is easily the least dialed in compared to other awards.
I mean, it's all narratives to a degree. The helmet idea is narrative. Whatever is happening in the posts above that I'm just not reading are narrative.
From a purely analytical perspective, the two names you mentioned are kinda interesting. I think Baker's problem was the offensive guys. Browning was sixth. Baker had no pop stats. Hutchinson is at least second in the NCAA in sacks and had a couple high-profile games (unfairly part of all to it, but part just the same).
Calhoun is interesting. 14.5 TFL in 13 games, 10.5 sacks, three bat downs, one FF. Showed out against Iowa, I don't know if he felt that dominating. Might have been hurt by the skin of the teeth nature of that MSU team and Cook being "the guy." He ended up 9th. Henry won, which seemed kinda silly at the time, but looks better with his NFL career.
(One year that was in retrospect stupid, and I think we all kinda bought the narrative was 2011. Montee Ball was a Heisman finalist and Russell Wilson wasn't. That was a weird, no exactly narrative moment, but fit and an anchor stat blinded us. Mathieu getting a finalist nod was interesting. He was more of an eye test guy than stat guy, and he was on that team that had one of the best regular seasons resume-wise)
