2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[MaximumSam]

Hell of a game

[847badgerfan]

It was, until the foul festival.

[MaximumSam]

Illini picked a bad time to go cold from the line

[847badgerfan]

Purdue couldn't miss.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Wow...... Not how I expected that game script to go.

I thought, "get Cockburn AND his backup into foul trouble, and it should be a cakewalk from there!", and then that actually just opened up Illinois' offense. 

Instead, Purdue was doing extremely well against Cockburn--he matched up very poorly with Edey. Then after Cockburn sat, everything got much tougher sledding.

Glad Purdue pulled it out... They had plenty of chances to give it up. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Since my last update there were a slew of upsets.  For review, the tiers are:

• IL even(+1,-1), tOSU, UW+1, MSU-1, PU-1(+1,-2)
• IU, IA even(+1,-1)
• PSU+1, RU+2, NU even(+2,-2), MN even(+1,-1), UMD-1(+1,-2), M-1
• blank
• UNL

The upsets so far are:

Note, when listing the tiers if a team has no upsets I put nothing after them.  If they have offsetting upsets I put "even" then explain it (see IL for an example).  If they have upsets I put a number after a +/- as appropriate.  If their upsets are all one way I stop there but if explanation is needed, I give it.  

All teams are within +/-1 except Rutgers who is +2 with upsets over PU at home and UMD on the road.  

The current projected final standings and BTT seeds are:

• 16-4/25-5 Illinois (wins tie over tOSU and UW based on H2H2H, no games in Columbus or Madison).  
• 16-4/23-6 Ohio State (loses tie with IL based on H2H2H, wins tie with UW based on record against MSU, no game in E. Lansing)
• 16-4/25-5 Wisconsin
• 14-5/24-7 Michigan State
• 13-6/25-6 Purdue
• 11-9/21-10 Iowa (wins tie with IU based on H2H, no game in Bloomington)
• 11-9/20-10 Indiana
• 8-12/14-16 Rutgers (wins tie with PSU based on record against the Purdue)
• 8-12/13-15 Penn State
• 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
• 6-12/12-18 Michigan
• 6-14/14-17 Maryland (wins tie with MN based on H2H, no game in Minneapolis)
• 6-14/15-14 Minnesota
• 0-20/6-25 Nebraska

Thus the match-ups at the B1G Tournament in Indianapolis would be:

Wednesday, March 9, 2022:

• #11 Michigan vs #14 Nebraska, 830pm, BTN
• #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6pm, BTN

Thursday, March 10, 2022:

• #5 Purdue vs UMD/MN, 230pm, BTN
• #6 Iowa vs M/UNL, 230pm, BTN
• #7 Indiana vs #10 Northwestern, 630pm, BTN
• #8 Rutgers vs #9 Penn State, noon, BTN

Friday, March 11, 2022:

• #1 Illinois vs RU/PSU, noon, BTN
• #2 Ohio State vs IU/NU, 630pm, BTN
• #3 Wisconsin vs IA/M/UNL, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Michigan State vs PU/UMD/MN, 230pm, BTN

Saturday, March 12, 2022:

• IL/RU/PSU vs MSU/PU/UMD/MN, 1pm, CBS
• tOSU/IU/NU vs UW/IA/M/UNL, 330pm, CBS

Sunday, March 13, 2022:

• IL/RU/PSU/MSU/PU/UMD/MN vs tOSU/IU/NU/UW/IA/M/UNL, 330pm, CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

As noted above, Rutgers is the only team outside of +/-1.  They are at +2 with upsets over tier-1 PU at home and tier-3 UMD on the road.  The road win over UMD would be an upset even if we moved them up but the home win over PU would NOT be an upset if we moved them up.  Should we?  

Well, the difference between tier-3 and tier-2 is the projected result in home games against tier-1 teams.  For Rutgers those games are:

• vs PU, W on 12/9
• vs MSU, 2/5
• vs tOSU, 2/9
• vs IL, 2/16
• vs UW, 2/26

Rutgers is 1-0 in these games with four to play.  I *THINK* we should move them up but what do others think?  

[bayareabadger]

OSU practicing violence. Good god. 

[MaximumSam]

OSU practicing violence. Good god.

Perhaps the worst team in basketball has an open date? Let's get them in here!

[bayareabadger]

Perhaps the worst team in basketball has an open date? Let's get them in here!

Per KenPom, that was the third-worst. That was a 46-point loss. IUPUI didn't move down in KenPom. OSU only moved up three spots. 

That is extremely difficult to do. 

[bayareabadger]

Badgers with another tossup win. Never got too hairy. NW is better than that record, but it doesn't really matter. 

I'm obviously a stats guy, and it's making this year extra enjoyable. I can hold in my head that a stats system suggests my team will either even out or dip some with the idea that some teams just out perform or have the numbers catch up. Each toss-up, I guess might be a little regression, so each becomes a nice moment. 

If UW can beat MSU in Madison (not always easy, though this might be an interesting one), it has two VERY winnable ones after ahead of a trip to Illinois. 8-2 or 9-1 would not look bad halfway through league play. 

[bayareabadger]

Welp, Iowa loses at Rutgers. Ugly game. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Just an FYI, we have no had three games impacting five teams "postponed" due to COVID:

• MSU @ M scheduled for 1/8
• PU @ M scheduled for 1/11
• MN @ PSU scheduled for 1/19

I have not seen anything official about rescheduling and the schedules listed on the worldwide leader's site do NOT show rescheduled games.  

For the time being in our tier-based projections I am treating these games as "not to be played".  Thus, we currently project MSU, PU, MN, and PSU to play 19 league games each while M plays 18 and everybody else plays the originally scheduled 20.  That creates some goofy finishes:

• 14-5:  MSU is projected to finish 1-1/2 games behind UW/IL/tOSU and one game ahead of:
• 13-6:  PU is projected to finish 1 game behind MSU (who also has 19 games) and 2-1/2 games ahead of IA/IU.  
• 7-12:  PSU is projected to finish 1/2 game behind RU and 1/2 game ahead of NU.  
• 6-13:  MN is projected to finish 1/2 game behind NU and 1/2 game ahead of UMD.  
• 6-12:  M is projected to finish with the same amount of wins as MN and UMD but ahead of both due to having one less loss than the Gophers and two fewer losses than the Terps.  

If anyone sees anything about official rescheduled dates let me know and I'll update the projections accordingly.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

POTFH!