header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Misfits Thread

 (Read 397770 times)

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13053
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8078 on: September 02, 2020, 01:07:59 PM »
The USA isn't a homogeneous region.  I think it depends on geography.  Trump voters in Texas certainly aren't going to be afraid to say it.

But in places like Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania?  Yeah, I could definitely see them either lying to the pollster, or lying to themselves, about how they'll eventually vote in November.

Maybe, though I haven't seen much sign of it.  Frankly, the single biggest loss for Trump IMO has been the suburb whites who went in with a "what's the worst that can happen" idea in 2016, and this time go voting with a feeling that something worse can happen.

longhorn320

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 9294
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8079 on: September 02, 2020, 01:11:14 PM »
if you look closely at what gave Hillary the popular vote in 2016

New York and California

If you took those two states away Trump wins popular vote

I dont know about you but I thank my lucky stars we dont have a system that allows California and New York to pick my president
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25026
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8080 on: September 02, 2020, 01:13:30 PM »
True.

I started to write more, but I don't think it matters.

The rest of my posting on this today is about statistics and the backfire effect. At least for now. :-)

PS I'm doing a terrible job staying out of this thread. *Click.*
Thanks pal.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8081 on: September 02, 2020, 01:13:59 PM »
I imagine the popular vote would be, well, "popular", I think the polls show solid support for it.  Of course, that is somewhat circular.

Anyway, it's not in the cards, the move by states is interesting, but also is probably unlikely "soon", and could be delayed by court challenges.  California might be shocked to see their Electors voting RED when the state voted heavily BLUE.


utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17617
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8082 on: September 02, 2020, 01:15:20 PM »
Maybe, though I haven't seen much sign of it.  Frankly, the single biggest loss for Trump IMO has been the suburb whites who went in with a "what's the worst that can happen" idea in 2016, and this time go voting with a feeling that something worse can happen.
Your inability to  "see much sign of it" isn't scientific, likely contains some confirmation bias, and is not really applicable here.  Because the entire point of being silent about supporting Trump, is that you WOULDN'T see much sign of it in the first place.

And I think you're underestimating the number of suburban whites who think things are proceeding in a generally okay way, or at least they were before the Coronavirus hit, but that's only my supposition as well.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8083 on: September 02, 2020, 01:18:31 PM »


If ever a year could be an outlier ...



SFBadger96

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1243
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8084 on: September 02, 2020, 01:23:01 PM »
I'm not a fan of doing away with the electoral college. We are the United States of America, with a constitution that grants a great deal of governing power to individual states. That means all the states need a say in national elections, which requires some kind of thumb on the scale for the less populous ones. My inelegant solution would be simply to take the senatorial votes out of the electoral college. That would reduce California's 55 votes to 53, Wyoming's 3 votes to 1. The battleground states would still be Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, increasingly Arizona and Colorado, etc., because the focus would still be on the swing states. But it would reduce the inequality in an individual's vote as between even Texas an North Dakota (to pick two other than California and Wyoming, which is--of course--the largest disparity).

I probably haven't thought enough about it to come up with a good solution, but it's all academic in any case because the less populous states are unlikely to support a constitutional amendment that strips them of power relative to the most populous ones. 

SFBadger96

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1243
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8085 on: September 02, 2020, 01:24:09 PM »


If ever a year could be an outlier ...



What volatility? I'm trying to understand what this graph represents?

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8086 on: September 02, 2020, 01:25:25 PM »
The biggest chance is the current effort by some states to choose electors solely based on the national popular vote.

I think that approach has some issues, one of which being how to do a national recount, if needed.  We don't have any need for national recounts today.  There is no way for these states to demand that other states do a recount obviously.


Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8087 on: September 02, 2020, 01:25:59 PM »
What volatility? I'm trying to understand what this graph represents?
Volatility in the stock market tends to be modest in Sept/Oct in election years.

Entropy

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1432
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8088 on: September 02, 2020, 01:29:59 PM »
american's voted that the best Mexican restaurant was taco bell...   Not sure I'm in favor of a true democracy.  Mob/Majority rules are not always the best answer, especially for minority opinion rights.   

longhorn320

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 9294
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8089 on: September 02, 2020, 01:38:26 PM »
I'm not a fan of doing away with the electoral college. We are the United States of America, with a constitution that grants a great deal of governing power to individual states. That means all the states need a say in national elections, which requires some kind of thumb on the scale for the less populous ones. My inelegant solution would be simply to take the senatorial votes out of the electoral college. That would reduce California's 55 votes to 53, Wyoming's 3 votes to 1. The battleground states would still be Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, increasingly Arizona and Colorado, etc., because the focus would still be on the swing states. But it would reduce the inequality in an individual's vote as between even Texas an North Dakota (to pick two other than California and Wyoming, which is--of course--the largest disparity).

I probably haven't thought enough about it to come up with a good solution, but it's all academic in any case because the less populous states are unlikely to support a constitutional amendment that strips them of power relative to the most populous ones.
I dont think mathematically speaking that subtracting 2 from all states electoral votes does anything but favor the more populated states

so as far as states rights is concerned I dont think this helps it
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

longhorn320

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 9294
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8090 on: September 02, 2020, 01:39:56 PM »
american's voted that the best Mexican restaurant was taco bell...  Not sure I'm in favor of a true democracy.  Mob/Majority rules are not always the best answer, especially for minority opinion rights. 
I think we Texans would take great exception with that
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13053
  • Liked:
Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8091 on: September 02, 2020, 01:41:37 PM »
Your inability to  "see much sign of it" isn't scientific, likely contains some confirmation bias, and is not really applicable here.  Because the entire point of being silent about supporting Trump, is that you WOULDN'T see much sign of it in the first place.

And I think you're underestimating the number of suburban whites who think things are proceeding in a generally okay way, or at least they were before the Coronavirus hit, but that's only my supposition as well.
My main reasoning is under a theory where Trump voters are  secretly afraid to say they support Trump, we'd see some evidence for it. What would that evidence look like? At the very least, a lot of variance in polls on Trump's support. That hasn't really been the case. 

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.