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Topic: Misfits Thread

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FearlessF

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #756 on: March 12, 2020, 11:19:14 AM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on March 12, 2020, 10:35:20 AM
Gavin Newsom just announced that all gatherings of over 250 people should be cancelled. Wife and I are planning to go to A Bronx Tale at our local OC theater (Segerstrom) tonight, and she's concerned whether we should go or not--or if Segerstrom will even continue holding shows.

why the arbitrary number of 250?

why not 500 or 100 or 50? 
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #757 on: March 12, 2020, 11:22:18 AM »
Seems arbitrary.

So, 249 is OK, but 250? No way!!
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FearlessF

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #758 on: March 12, 2020, 11:25:44 AM »
hopefully some math behind it

so the consequence of one person affecting 200 of 250 people is the contamination of 200 x 10 = 2000

much better than one person affecting 500 folks

2,000 more affected walking around is OK, but 5,000 is bad 
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utee94

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #759 on: March 12, 2020, 11:32:07 AM »
There are statistical reasons for it, but it's still not ever going to be hard and fast.  As pointed out, is there a statistically significant difference between 250 people, and 249?  No, of course not.

In Austin our large-gathering ban is 2,500 people.  So perhaps we're doomed???

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #760 on: March 12, 2020, 11:35:51 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on March 12, 2020, 11:19:14 AM
why the arbitrary number of 250?

why not 500 or 100 or 50?
I know it came from the CDC. Originally they were talking about >1000 people, but they brought it down to 250.
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FearlessF

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #761 on: March 12, 2020, 12:04:43 PM »
next week, if things go south, they could move it to 10
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FearlessF

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #762 on: March 12, 2020, 12:06:12 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on March 12, 2020, 11:32:07 AM
There are statistical reasons for it, but it's still not ever going to be hard and fast.  As pointed out, is there a statistically significant difference between 250 people, and 249?  No, of course not.

In Austin our large-gathering ban is 2,500 people.  So perhaps we're doomed???


another fantastic reason to never move there
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #763 on: March 12, 2020, 12:12:40 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on March 12, 2020, 12:04:43 PM
next week, if things go south, they could move it to 10
No worries - the only time I panic buy is at last call
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ELA

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #764 on: March 12, 2020, 12:17:15 PM »
Same, we have tickets to a show tomorrow, and are hoping they just cancel it, so we don't have to make a call.
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MichiFan87

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #765 on: March 12, 2020, 12:25:59 PM »
And now the Ivy League schools are all cancelling the rest of their spring sports seasons.....
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FearlessF

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #766 on: March 12, 2020, 12:32:35 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on March 12, 2020, 12:12:40 PM
No worries - the only time I panic buy is at last call
the bar in my small town has been closed more than open the past 5 years
I've learned to drink at home and alone if pushed
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #767 on: March 12, 2020, 12:36:02 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on March 12, 2020, 12:32:35 PM
the bar in my small town has been closed more than open the past 5 years
I've learned to drink at home and alone if pushed
When I drink alone... I prefer to be by myself.

Although...

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847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #768 on: March 12, 2020, 12:37:27 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on March 12, 2020, 12:32:35 PM
the bar in my small town has been closed more than open the past 5 years
I've learned to drink at home and alone if pushed
You need to open a bar.


I only drink when I'm alone, or with people.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #769 on: March 12, 2020, 12:38:28 PM »
Is it just me that thinks maybe this is starting to go beyond prudence and into CYA mode? 

That it's just a race to out-response each other? 

I.e. that events are just being cancelled because if someone is LESS prudent than some other entity and something goes wrong, they'll get a PR b!tch-slap, and they want to avoid that rather than actually making these calls based upon legitimate risk assessment? 
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