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Topic: Misfits Thread

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utee94

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #658 on: March 10, 2020, 08:00:31 AM »
Yeah I'm a little surprised that some of the smarter people I know are buying into the problems with the markets.


Even if COVID19 were to have a death rate of something like 6% across the general population and not just octogenarians (who are beyond the age of contributing to the workforce in any statistically meaningful way), there is still no reason to believe it will affect domestic output for any of the countries where it currently resides.

The flipside is, will it adversely affect consumption?  Right now, the evidence suggests the opposite-- employers are actually starting to consume MORE, especially in the tech, bank, and government  sectors, in efforts to equip their workforces with better capability to work-from-home.  Granted, that's in the near term, next 3-18 months or so, but there's still nothing to suggest major economic issues with either global production, or consumption, in the long term.

(edited after Northern Buckeye focused on oil-- I'm talking primarily about future global production above, not the oil price market drivers)


Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #659 on: March 10, 2020, 08:12:39 AM »
Uncertainty aboundeth, duh, and I'm not sure about that.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #660 on: March 10, 2020, 08:22:57 AM »
Just a blip on the radar.
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #661 on: March 10, 2020, 08:28:30 AM »
Yeah I'm a little surprised that some of the smarter people I know are buying into the problems with the markets.


Even if COVID19 were to have a death rate of something like 6% across the general population and not just octogenarians (who are beyond the age of contributing to the workforce in any statistically meaningful way), there is still no reason to believe it will affect domestic output for any of the countries where it currently resides.

The flipside is, will it adversely affect consumption?  Right now, the evidence suggests the opposite-- employers are actually starting to consume MORE, especially in the tech, bank, and government  sectors, in efforts to equip their workforces with better capability to work-from-home.  Granted, that's in the near term, next 3-18 months or so, but there's still nothing to suggest major economic issues with either global production, or consumption, in the long term.

(edited after Northern Buckeye focused on oil-- I'm talking primarily about future global production above, not the oil price market drivers)


That's too high. The death rate will come WAY down as this thing spreads. I realize you posed a hypothetical, but I'm just doing a public service in case anyone missed the "even if" part of your post.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #662 on: March 10, 2020, 08:48:16 AM »
The 1918-19 flu infected a third of the global population, estimated 500 million, and killed 50 million, ten percent, many of them in their 20s and 30s.

It was very unusual of course, fortunately.  Hard to imagine that today, though I imagine our recovery rates would be better.

iahawk15

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #663 on: March 10, 2020, 08:53:12 AM »

The stock market futures are way up this morning, they are behaving "oddly" to me.
I disagree. A bounce after a 2000 pt down move was to be expected.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #664 on: March 10, 2020, 08:59:00 AM »
I disagree. A bounce after a 2000 pt down move was to be expected.
Agree, but I could also see a major uptick to open followed by another selloff by those looking to make a quick recovery.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #665 on: March 10, 2020, 09:04:25 AM »
I disagree. A bounce after a 2000 pt down move was to be expected.
I'm not thinking about the events of a single morning.  I'm talking about the recent price actions over the past month.  Dead cats have been bouncing with frequency.

iahawk15

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #666 on: March 10, 2020, 09:05:07 AM »
Agree, but I could also see a major uptick to open followed by another selloff by those looking to make a quick recovery.
Not only could, I think it will. A bounce was inevitable, but I don't expect it to last.

iahawk15

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #667 on: March 10, 2020, 09:14:43 AM »
I'm not thinking about the events of a single morning.  I'm talking about the recent price actions over the past month.  Dead cats have been bouncing with frequency.
I would say that's been somewhat predictable as well. The market rolling over was overdue, and a panic event was needed to act as the needle. Since then, it's been very predictable. Bounce, flush lower, bounce.

I said upthread the bottom wasn't in, and DJI was going to 24K. We hit that yesterday.

I expect a lot of whipsawing over the next few weeks, but I think Q1 earnings season is going to be painful. If so, I expect more downside.

There's a couple more levels of support on the way down but DJI at ~20,500 is a critical level.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #668 on: March 10, 2020, 09:20:14 AM »
I don't think it will drop to that. Fundamentally it is in good shape. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #669 on: March 10, 2020, 09:22:08 AM »
Well, if this market was something I could have predicted, I would have been buying and selling options like crazy and making a zillion bucks.

Some things of course are "predictable" in hindsight.  And I know I can't predict markets.


iahawk15

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #670 on: March 10, 2020, 09:24:54 AM »
Oops, I misspoke. 21,700 is the 2018 low pivot and the critical level, not 20,500. If we approach that, major government intervention is coming (if not before).
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 09:46:54 AM by iahawk15 »

iahawk15

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #671 on: March 10, 2020, 09:35:24 AM »
Well, if this market was something I could have predicted, I would have been buying and selling options like crazy and making a zillion bucks.

Some things of course are "predictable" in hindsight.  And I know I can't predict markets.


That's fine. I've been lightly following the stock market thread in the other forum, but chose not to get involved. MCWTerps speaks a lot of truth there.

What it comes down to is two philosophies. Passive investors and active traders. Neither one is the "right" way to do it. There's money to be made for people who have the time, ability, and desire to learn how the markets move. For others, the long game works best.

I certainly haven't been making a zillion bucks, but I am making money. Winning traders work in probabilities, not absolutes. My strategy is aim small, miss small.

 

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