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Topic: Misfits Thread

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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8008 on: September 02, 2020, 09:09:49 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 02, 2020, 09:08:22 AM
WE worked very hard for what we have.

I didn't especially, after the schooling thing, which was pretty hard work.  I was a complete lazy bum my last 12 years at work, demotivated and avoiding any real work.

I was amazed I could find such a sinecure for so long without repercussions.  Nobody seemed to care.
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ELA

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8009 on: September 02, 2020, 09:10:51 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 09:08:36 AM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

There appears to be some movement in Trump's approval numbers.  I don't know if that translates into poll numbers or not, maybe some.  I don't think polls at this point, especially national polls, are more than suggestive, though trends may be interesting.

We have another two months obviously and I think a lot of "us" have been paying more attention to "other" issues lately.
I don't think, even in an identical situation, god forbid, we could ever see something like the post 9/11 bump GW got with as unwilling each side is to credit to other at this point.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 09:21:02 AM by ELA »
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8010 on: September 02, 2020, 09:29:31 AM »
Quote from: ELA on September 02, 2020, 09:10:51 AM
I don't think, even in an identical situation, god forbid, we could ever see something like the post 9/11 bump GW got with as unwilling each side is to credit to other at this point.
Good point.
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MaximumSam

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8011 on: September 02, 2020, 09:34:03 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 09:08:36 AM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

There appears to be some movement in Trump's approval numbers.  I don't know if that translates into poll numbers or not, maybe some.  I don't think polls at this point, especially national polls, are more than suggestive, though trends may be interesting.

We have another two months obviously and I think a lot of "us" have been paying more attention to "other" issues lately.
Well maybe. The 2016 polling was pretty unstable. I don't know that there are a ton of "undecided" voters out there
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8012 on: September 02, 2020, 09:36:35 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on September 02, 2020, 09:34:03 AM
Well maybe. The 2016 polling was pretty unstable. I don't know that there are a ton of "undecided" voters out there
I know many. Small sample, but up here in Wisconsin, many undecided people decided this past week.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8013 on: September 02, 2020, 09:43:07 AM »
I think a good 40% of the electorate is "swayable".  Some no doubt have a strong lean, but that could change.

This has been an unusual year for obvious reasons, and I think the normal level of attention to the election has not been there for those in the middle, the swayables.

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MaximumSam

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8014 on: September 02, 2020, 09:54:54 AM »
Racking my brain on what could happen that would sway people now compared to what has happened and rapidly getting into alien invasions
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longhorn320

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8015 on: September 02, 2020, 10:02:41 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 02, 2020, 09:43:07 AM
I think a good 40% of the electorate is "swayable".  Some no doubt have a strong lean, but that could change.

This has been an unusual year for obvious reasons, and I think the normal level of attention to the election has not been there for those in the middle, the swayables.


I just dont think its as high as 40%

I think its more like 10% maybe as high as 20%
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8016 on: September 02, 2020, 10:02:59 AM »
Well, let's see what might happen, plausibly, to sway folks in the middle:

Debates, that's often a big one.

More gaffes by either candidate, that can be big

A continued decline in COVID cases and clear signs the economy is recovering, that's possible.

Continued "unrest" in various cities being handled better by one candidate or the other

Continued growth in the stock market making a lot of folks feeling wealthier and thinking the status quo is OK

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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8017 on: September 02, 2020, 10:03:49 AM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on September 02, 2020, 10:02:41 AM
I just dont think its as high as 40%

I think its more like 10% maybe as high as 20%
I have a very simple model of the electorate that is 30-30-40.  Each 30 would not under any circumstances change their vote.  The 40 might, even if it's unlikely.
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longhorn320

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8018 on: September 02, 2020, 10:05:15 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on September 02, 2020, 09:03:24 AM
More polls out today and more of the same. What's been remarkable in this election is despite all the craziness this year, the polling has barely shifted for both candidates
what you should have said is the pollsters have barely shifted
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8019 on: September 02, 2020, 10:07:05 AM »
One plausible reason the polling numbers have not shifted much is what I said, the "swayables" have been preoccupied.

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longhorn320

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8020 on: September 02, 2020, 10:11:10 AM »
the window into what the people feel is clouded by the media

right now Biden has somewhere between a 5 to a 10 point lead

you will see that lead evaporate by election day not because people have changed their minds but because the polls will come back to reality

there is no way Biden is ahead in the swing states but we wont see that in the polls until a few weeks before the election
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MaximumSam

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8021 on: September 02, 2020, 10:11:23 AM »
I think the single biggest thing, that wouldn't be that difficult, is if Trump was able to make a consistent effort at being the president. You saw the convention that was clearly the goal. But he's already back to prattling about secret airplanes and soup warriors, not the type of stuff that is very appealing to someone who could be swayed.  But it hasn't happened in years so it's tough to think it will happen.
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