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Topic: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness

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TyphonInc

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #98 on: August 13, 2020, 04:40:03 PM »
So... I'm going through the stages of grief  and I've kinda got them jumbled up. But I've been in denial since the announcement came out, and now I'm just depressed. No Buckeye football this year sucks.

Not to get political but a quote from Trump. "It's a tragic Mistake to cancel Football. Of the target age group 20-29 year old, only 5 out of 100,000 need hospitalization." I found myself agreeing with this person I don't like. 

FearlessF

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #99 on: August 13, 2020, 04:56:25 PM »
even a blind squirrel finds a nut
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #100 on: August 13, 2020, 05:15:01 PM »
So... I'm going through the stages of grief  and I've kinda got them jumbled up. But I've been in denial since the announcement came out, and now I'm just depressed. No Buckeye football this year sucks.

Not to get political but a quote from Trump. "It's a tragic Mistake to cancel Football. Of the target age group 20-29 year old, only 5 out of 100,000 need hospitalization." I found myself agreeing with this person I don't like.
Or you could look at CDC data: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6924e2-H.pdf

3.7% in that age group who have a confirmed case of COVID need hospitalization. That's 3700 out of 100,000.
0.9% in that age group who have a confirmed case of COVID need ICU admission. That's 900 out of 100,000.
0.1% in that age group who have a confirmed case of COVID die. That's 100 out of 100,000.

Even if you assume a 10x difference between actual infections and confirmed infections (which wouldn't be the case in a football team population where they're being tested multiple times a week as a precaution), you can't get to 5 out of 100K. At best you could get to 10 out of 100K dying.

That guy is probably referring to maybe 5 out of 100,000 in that entire population have needed hospitalization so far regardless of whether they have COVID or not, or potentially [it's happened before] just pulling a statistic out of thin air.


Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #101 on: August 13, 2020, 05:52:10 PM »
Everyone knows that 98.7% of statistics are made up on the spot. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Honestbuckeye

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #102 on: August 13, 2020, 05:59:02 PM »
Or you could look at CDC data: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6924e2-H.pdf

3.7% in that age group who have a confirmed case of COVID need hospitalization. That's 3700 out of 100,000.
0.9% in that age group who have a confirmed case of COVID need ICU admission. That's 900 out of 100,000.
0.1% in that age group who have a confirmed case of COVID die. That's 100 out of 100,000.

Even if you assume a 10x difference between actual infections and confirmed infections (which wouldn't be the case in a football team population where they're being tested multiple times a week as a precaution), you can't get to 5 out of 100K. At best you could get to 10 out of 100K dying.

That guy is probably referring to maybe 5 out of 100,000 in that entire population have needed hospitalization so far regardless of whether they have COVID or not, or potentially [it's happened before] just pulling a statistic out of thin air.


Interesting data.  So by those numbers, if you figure 14 teams times an 85 man roster, we can expect roughly 120 of these players to die if they play?? 

does anybody here believe that? Do you believe that?  My guess is pretty much nobody does.
but why is that?

when you look at those CDC stats does it take into account how many of the people had pre-existing conditions or were susceptible to the virus? And subsequently how many of the Big Ten athletes would fall into that category versus be considered extremely healthy?

Also, those statistics go back to the beginning when, and I’m trying not to be political here, certain geographies had horrible spread rates hospitalization rates and death rates because let’s just say we didn’t know what we were doing.  Is our performance better now? Have you at least improved any of the treatments, or catching it early?

Forget that guy. We all agree that this challenge is some type of balance between normal life/economic pain and actual death of real people, but we just have huge variety of opinions of where the best balance is.

given that the players, and their parents, have every opportunity to opt out or opt in, I think it is a tragic mistake to cancel football or at least  it try. Other sports are figuring it out as they go and making it work. 

if by some chance the other conferences make it through the season, the repercussions for the Big Ten and those who don’t play will be severe and long term.




Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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utee94

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #103 on: August 13, 2020, 06:04:54 PM »
hopefully you are social distancing from the wife ;)
Well that doesn't sound like any fun. :)

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #104 on: August 13, 2020, 06:09:02 PM »
Interesting data.  So by those numbers, if you figure 14 teams times an 85 man roster, we can expect roughly 120 of these players to die if they play?? 

does anybody here believe that? Do you believe that?  My guess is pretty much nobody does.
but why is that?

when you look at those CDC stats does it take into account how many of the people had pre-existing conditions or were susceptible to the virus? And subsequently how many of the Big Ten athletes would fall into that category versus be considered extremely healthy?
14x85 is 1190. Multiplied by a 0.1% death rate in 20-29 age group that's 1.19 deaths, or 1 out of the entire population, not 120. Not sure where you got 120? 

And that's across the entire population, so it doesn't account for comorbid conditions. THAT SAID, if you'd clicked the link they also break out the percentages for people with comorbid conditions, where the numbers are much higher. If you take out comorbid conditions, the numbers drop to 2.7% hospitalized, 0.3% ICU, and it still says 0.1% death but that's probably rounding up. I would say that linemen would probably be considered to have comorbid conditions, because although they're in good health, they are clinically obese. 

If you assume every one of those players is considered healthy with no comorbid conditions, and that over the course of the season every B1G player contracts COVID, you'd look at 1190x0.027, or 32 players requiring hospitalization.

Do you think the B1G would accept that number? Half that number?

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #105 on: August 13, 2020, 06:10:11 PM »
(Mods; starting with @TyphonInc 's post up through mine, can you move those to either the coronavirus or the odds we have a football season thread? Probably better to have this discussion there.)

Honestbuckeye

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #106 on: August 13, 2020, 06:14:49 PM »
14x85 is 1190. Multiplied by a 0.1% death rate in 20-29 age group that's 1.19 deaths, or 1 out of the entire population, not 120. Not sure where you got 120?

And that's across the entire population, so it doesn't account for comorbid conditions. THAT SAID, if you'd clicked the link they also break out the percentages for people with comorbid conditions, where the numbers are much higher. If you take out comorbid conditions, the numbers drop to 2.7% hospitalized, 0.3% ICU, and it still says 0.1% death but that's probably rounding up. I would say that linemen would probably be considered to have comorbid conditions, because although they're in good health, they are clinically obese.

If you assume every one of those players is considered healthy with no comorbid conditions, and that over the course of the season every B1G player contracts COVID, you'd look at 1190x0.027, or 32 players requiring hospitalization.

Do you think the B1G would accept that number? Half that number?
One extra zero in my math.  Sorry

so- the real question is- if they don’t play, how many of those 32 will end up hospitalized?

There is no data for that.  Only intuition.

Half?  zero?  Twice as many?    That’s what it comes down to.  And those lineman you speak of, which is very debatable by the way, have an opportunity to opt out including conversations with their parents, but have opted in based upon the level of medical attention and protocols they see around them versus when they’re not with the team And those lineman you speak of, which is very debatable by the way, have an opportunity to opt out including conversations with their parents, but have opted in based upon the level of medical attention and protocols they see around them versus when they’re not with the team 


Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #107 on: August 13, 2020, 06:20:09 PM »
so- the real question is- if they don’t play, how many of those 32 will end up hospitalized?

There is no data for that.  Only intuition.
Every one of those 1190 players has more control over their potential infection risk off the field than on it

On the field you simply have ZERO protection against infection. It's a contact sport. You're in close proximity to others on nearly every play. There are collisions. As I've said in other threads, a single linemen who is asymptomatic and contagious could be a superspreader considering the close contact to his teammates and his opponents (rotating through) on every play. 

Now, some may argue that college students, being college students, will be dumb and reckless and won't be careful about their exposure off the field. They may not wear masks, may not social distance, may not do anything to protect themselves. I can't argue that; but that's their decision, not an inherent risk in being off the field. Inherent in being on the field is a complete inability to play the game while protecting yourself.  

utee94

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #108 on: August 13, 2020, 06:22:17 PM »
Every one of those 1190 players has more control over their potential infection risk off the field than on it.

On the field you simply have ZERO protection against infection. It's a contact sport. You're in close proximity to others on nearly every play. There are collisions. As I've said in other threads, a single linemen who is asymptomatic and contagious could be a superspreader considering the close contact to his teammates and his opponents (rotating through) on every play.

Now, some may argue that college students, being college students, will be dumb and reckless and won't be careful about their exposure off the field. They may not wear masks, may not social distance, may not do anything to protect themselves. I can't argue that; but that's their decision, not an inherent risk in being off the field. Inherent in being on the field is a complete inability to play the game while protecting yourself. 

They can choose not to play the game. Nobody's forcing them to assume the inherent risk of being on the field.  Some have already said they'd opt out.  Many others have said "Let Us Play."

They know the risks.  Acting like they're 10-year-olds who are incapable of making their own decisions isn't going to help them manage this situation.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #109 on: August 13, 2020, 06:46:38 PM »
Interesting data.  So by those numbers, if you figure 14 teams times an 85 man roster, we can expect roughly 120 of these players to die if they play?? 

does anybody here believe that? Do you believe that?  My guess is pretty much nobody does.
but why is that?
You're not really being very objective.


given that the players, and their parents, have every opportunity to opt out or opt in, I think it is a tragic mistake to cancel football or at least  it try.   
It's not a tragic mistake.  The kids don't get to play football - nothing tragic about that.  FFS
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #110 on: August 13, 2020, 06:48:37 PM »
I'm watching this 1990 UM-MSU game and they are really laying it on each other.  They're trying to hurt the ball-carrier every play, on both sides.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020 Fall No-Season Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #111 on: August 13, 2020, 06:52:37 PM »
They can choose not to play the game. Nobody's forcing them to assume the inherent risk of being on the field.  Some have already said they'd opt out.  Many others have said "Let Us Play."

They know the risks.  Acting like they're 10-year-olds who are incapable of making their own decisions isn't going to help them manage this situation.

To play devil's advocate, we often prevent people from doing potentially dangerous things even if they both want to do it and are willing to take on the risk. We close bars because we know that people will see the risk, assume it and do the thing they want. We make certain drugs illegal of the same reason. And those things don't take public institutions making an effort at all. (Shoot, college teams spend a LOT of time directing these young men's decisions, often at cost. What they want is most often a relatively minor consideration)

Many moons ago, when my HS was going through some kind of mess (we had a few), a teacher looked at us and said, "Here's the deal, in some ways, we have to act as your parents when your parents are not around." For the most part, that's much more tenuous in college, but within the structure of a college football program that attitude is alive and well. And it's all well and good to say, "These kids can do what they want," but when you're loosely responsible for someone and you say, one kid might well die and a few per team will end up seriously hospitalized, folks get jumpy. They'll get more jumpy still when it's juxtaposed with the bills that get paid.

In the end, the joy of the kids is a pretty minor consideration. The driving forces remain the thousands who very much want to watch these kids on TV  and in person and the crucial money schools/towns stand to bring in, money that will alleviate considerable suffering/harm in those towns. It’s a concentrated cost/diffuse benefit problem of sorts. At the moment, it appears some schools aren’t keen on that cost. Maybe some others will be. (I still assume this ends with a far from complete season, but with the SEC/ACC managing feelings better)

 

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