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#51 West Virginia Mountaineers

#7 in Big XII

We continue our run on Big XII teams, but leave the state of Texas.  I thought West Virginia’s drop last year would be more muted than most, but I don’t think I fully appreciated just how bare the cupboard was left by Holgorson.  I still think Neal Brown was a really good hire, but while the offense figures to rebound from last year, he’s got his work cut out for him defensively.  The Stills brothers from nearby Fairmont, West Virginia are rock solid on the line, and allow a lot of freedom behind them, but the Mountaineers lost nearly all the depth along the line, and 5 of the 8 starters behind them have moved on.  Gaining some stability on the back end is needed after a pair of very talented players let the program down.  Kenny Robinson Jr. was expelled for an academic violation, and spent last season playing in the XFL, before entering the 2020 NFL Draft.  Then Kwantel Raines, who was one of the highest rated safety recruits in the nation was unable to find the field, and wound up transferring to Temple.  Defensive coordinator Vic Koenning, 60 years old, with 17 season of coordinating experience, showed that off in maximizing what talent he had there, trying to create havoc, and largely succeeding.  They were top 30 in the nation in havoc rate; the problem is they racked up negative plays, but not turnovers, ranking bottom 25 nationally in turnovers created rate.  When the offense is as bad as the Mountaineers’ was last year, you need to create some turnovers, and probably score off some yourself.  Because where I really undersold West Virginia’s dropoff though was on the offensive side of the ball, where I figured there was at least some talent left behind.  It appears I was wrong.  The offensive production plummeted from #9 in SP+ in 2018, to #100 last year.  They return their starting quarterback, leading rusher, and six of their seven top receivers.  Is it really as simple as experience though?  The offensive line never recovered from the injury, and eventual transfer of Josh Sills, and now has to replace both starting tackles.  It was the middle of the line that really struggled to open running lanes, as the Mountaineers sputtered to just 2.6 ypc, worst in the Big XII by over a yard and a half per carry, second worst in the entire FBS, ahead of only Akron.  So I’m not sure what sort of progression can necessarily be expected there.  In Sam Jones at wide receiver, they do have an absolute star in the making though.  He finished third in the Big XII with 69 receptions, as only a freshman.  Now, he just needs to figure out how to do more with it after the reception.  His 9.8 ypc was easily the least of any player in the conference with at least 19 receptions, with 11.5 being the next lowest, and his 2 receiving touchdowns put him only third on his own team, a team that had the third fewest touchdown passes in the Big XII.  While there is some growing buzz to turn from Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall as starting quarterback, to Bowling Green transfer Jarrett Doege, I’m not ready to buy in yet.  Kendall had injury problems, but was never replaced for performance.  Yes, Doege had better numbers in his three game stint at the end, but Kendall was in and out all year, and gave the staff plenty of chance to replace him, and they never did.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Austin Kendall, Senior
RB	Leddie Brown, Junior
WR	Sam James, Sophomore
	.
DE	Dante Stills, Junior
DT	Darius Stills, Senior
LB	Josh Chandler, Junior

The plan for Doege all along was to redshirt last year to allow him two years to play in ‘20 and ‘21.  That’s why he didn’t play until the end of the last four games of the season.  When he played he looked better than Kendall and in his 3 starts WVU went 2-1, beating both K St and TCU as road underdogs and taking Ok St to the limit before finally losing.

The general feeling among the fanbase is the job is Doege’s to lose and I think there is a little more optimism because of that. WVU just had one of those seasons where everything that could go wrong did.  There were injuries everywhere. Besides the Robinson situation with academics the leading returning WR from 2018 left because of the same thing. The starting Center from 2018 transferred down to Youngstown St to be close to his girlfriend. His backup retired because of injuries.  It was a perfect storm of bad luck.

I honestly don’t think the cupboard was as bare as some think it was but some things happened with transfers and injuries after Dana left that wasn’t anyone’s fault.  As a result, WVU had to play a ton of guys who just weren’t ready.  I realized how bad it was when I saw a 5’8 in-state walk on trying to cover Cee Dee Lamb in the OU game.

There will still be growing pains this year but I expect WVU to be better.

#47 Arizona State Sun Devils

#7 in Pac 12

Herm Edwards inherited a good deal of skill position talent, from N’Keal Harry and Brandon Aiyuk, to Eno Benjamin.  Maximizing that talent has been the issue, with inconsistent and young quarterback play, and subpar offensive line play.  Now the skill positions are the question mark, with Eno Benjamin leaving early for the NFL.  Benjamin got nearly all of the running back carries, with the next highest usage back being A.J. Carter, who got 19 carries and averaged just 2.6 ypc on those touches.  With the transfer of Isaiah Floyd, the only other back on the roster with college carries is Demetrious Flowers, who averaged 2.8 ypc on 11 attempts.  The Sun Devils added a pair of 4* running backs in the 2020 class, both of whom were top 250 recruits, both of whom enrolled early.  They compliment each other, with the small, quick Daniyel Ngata, who is also a threat on special teams and in the passing game, and DeaMonte Trayanum a bigger, more traditional back from Ohio, who spurned offers from midwest powers such as Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Notre Dame, to head cross country to the desert.  The receiver room has more proven commodities...by one, in Frank Darby, who had 31 receptions for 616 yards, the only player among the Sun Devils’ five leading receivers to return.  Like running back, the Arizona State 2020 class was heavy on top end receivers, with half of their eight 4* prospects being receivers, including Johnny Wilson, the highest rated member of the class.  The offensive line was an issue, and remains one, aside from breakout freshman interior lineman Dohnovan West, who excelled at guard last year, but looks to slide over to center to replace Cohl Cabral this year.  But Arizona State otherwise loses 4 starters from a group that was among the worst pass blocking lines in the FBS last year.  If Jayden Daniels takes any sort of sophomore step forward, there is enough raw talent, that this offense could be a lot of fun.  Arizona State has struggled with offensive coordinator consistency, with Zak Hill now being the fifth coach to man the position in the last six years.  Daniels is too special of a player for the Sun Devils to finish in the bottom third of the offense in scoring, as they did a season ago.  Daniels struggled a little with his accuracy, but his misses weren’t misreads, or to the wrong team, they were simply incomplete.  His interception rate of 2 in just 338 attempts was best in the Pac 12, and it’s not as though he was just taking the easy stuff.  He led the conference in yards per completion.  Anyone who thought he was an athlete who needed time to learn how to play quarterback was dead wrong, he’s special.  With Danny Gonzales taking the New Mexico head coaching job, Herm brought in a friend from his NFL days, former Bengals coach Marvin Lewis (who served as an analyst for the team last year).  The 3-3-5 Gonzales, a Rocky Long disciple, taught, isn’t for most, so it will be interesting to see what changes Marvin makes.  Job one needs to be to get more out of his linebackers.  Darien Butler and Merlin Robertson were reliable, but they have the talent to be more, and they simply weren’t disruptful enough in Gonzales’ scheme.  They were first and third on the team in tackles, but combined for just 3 sacks, 1 interception and 2 fumble recovery.  Special teams are odd.  Kicker Brandon Ruiz was on the Groza Watch list last year, got hurt, got replaced, and decided to transfer.  Michael Turk was the top punter in the Pac 12, and decided to go pro TWO YEARS early.  He was undrafted.  I remember my Spartans going 0-3 on field goals against Arizona State, but apparently that was a hex of the Sun Devils.  Opponents missed 50% of their field goal attempts, tied with Michigan for third most in the country.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jayden Daniels, Sophomore
WR	Frank Darby, Senior
C	Dohnovan West, Sophomore
	.
DE	Jermayne Lole, Junior
LB	Darien Butler, Junior
CB	Jack Jones, Senior

#46 Pittsburgh Panthers

#8 in ACC

One of the more staggering collapses in 2019 was that of the Pitt running game.  They were behind only Clemson in 2018, averaging 5.6 ypc, including their amazing performance against Virginia Tech where they averaged 13.7 ypc on 36 carries.  In 2019, they had the worst run game in the ACC, averaging just 3.6 ypc.  Pat Narduzzi has churned through offensive coordinators during his head coaching tenure, but one consistent is that when the Panthers can’t run the ball, the offense simply doesn’t work.  Pitt passed for the 38th most yards per game in the nation.  That might not sound like anything special, but it was their highest national ranking since 2006, and in that 13 year span only even ranked in the top 60 one other time.  And yet their overall offensive SP+ efficiency fell nearly 40 spots to #109, wasting what was arguably Narduzzi’s best defense in Pittsburgh.  Pitt and San Diego State were the only schools to rank in the top half of the FBS in overall SP+, with an offensive rating outside of the top 100.  In the continuing pendulum of Pitt football, it appears the strength is going to swing back to the offense.  That starts up front, with an offensive line returning a pair of All-ACC players and should rebound from what was a down performance across the board last year.  Hopefully going young last year, pays off in 2020, with right tackle Nolan Ulizio being the only departure.  It won’t matter if they can’t find a running back.  The line didn’t do them any favors, but it’s not like any of them had any standout moments when given the opportunity.  Only 4 teams in the nation had fewer carries for 20 yards or more than the Panthers had last year.  Freshman Vincent Smith got the most carries in the Quick Lane Bowl, maybe that was the staff realizing he should be the guy.  He averaged over a yard more than A.J. Davis, who had been the featured back.  The unpromised potential of Kenny Pickett has held this offense back.  In 2018 they were an elite running team, and just needed a little passing, it appeared when he was inserted late in the year that he would provide that spark.  Then last year, they passed the ball more, he put up bigger numbers, but still failed to stretch the field, something that perhaps could have offered the run game some relief.  His 469 pass attempts were 10th most in the nation, and his completion percentage was a respectable 51st best, but he had the 6th lowest yards per attempt, because he never went down the field.  Narduzzi likes his defense built off a strong secondary, but he’ll make do with having this line.  They had the 3rd highest line created sack rate in the FBS, and bring back 7 of the 8 guys from the two deep this year.  The scary thing is that the two deep this year consists of one senior, one junior, and six freshman/sophomores, so it looks like it’s going to be an outstanding group for a few more years to come.  That will be needed, because Paris Ford is the only player of note returning from the entire back seven.  The might not mimic last year’s numbers, where they allowed the second fewest yards per attempt and completion percentage.  But with that front, they may improve upon forcing the 8th most drives of zero or negative yards nationally.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Kenny Pickett, Senior
C	Jimmy Morrisey, Senior
G	Bryce Hargrove, Senior
	.
DE	Patrick Jones II, Senior
DT	Jalen Twyman, Junior
S	Paris Ford, Junior

That felt like warm at best both ways.  MSU money wasn't really there for him, and his only connection to the school was his time working under the guy who just unceremoniously left.

Pitts athletic department has really improved in non revenue sports, namely volleyball and wrestling.  But football/basketball apathy is strong.  It has passed negative talk radio discussion and entered non-discussion.

Definitely not your big brother's Sun Belt.  I remember when the best SBC teams were barely Top 80 material, now there's 2 in the Top 50.

#45 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns

#2 in Sun Belt

How Billy Napier is still in Lafayette for Year 3 is beyond me.  He seems like an absolute home run hire for a number of SEC or ACC schools.  He’s the son of a coach, born and raised in Georgia, played at Furman, where he quarterbacked the team to the FCS Championship Game in 2001, spent 14 of 16 years coaching split between two different stops each at Clemson and Alabama, spent a year as offensive coordinator at Arizona State, and then took the Louisiana job, where he’s reach the conference title game in each of his first two seasons.  He has raised the talent to the point that the team had three players selected in the NFL Draft, and I still have them as one of the better Group of Five teams.

My thoughts too. Would've made a more responsible hire at Ole Miss and Miss St when they were looking for coaches a few months ago. Alas, Napier wasn't the splashier, headline grabbing name that Kiffin and Leach are.

#44 Washington State Cougars

#6 in Pac 12

The Mike Leach-Washington State divorce, which seemed years in the making, finally took place after last offseason.  His time in Pullman can’t be viewed as anything other than a rousing success.  He leaves as the second winningest coach in program history, the best winning percentage of any post-World War II coach.  They went to bowls in 6 of the past 7 years, after going a decade without a postseason, including a top 10 finish in 2018.  But the same things that make college football fans love him, eventually drives administrators nuts.  Once the Tennessee deal fell through, it really seemed like a matter of time.  And I’m guessing some inside the Bohler Athletic Complex were quite happy it wasn’t them dealing with racially deaf Tweets sent out by Mike Leach before even coaching a game at Mississippi State.  The question is just how far from Leach they strayed in hiring 41 year old Nick Rolovich from Hawaii.  Off the field, Rolovich has his own quirks.  He stood out for bringing a cast of characters with him to conference media days, including celebrity impersonators, such as Britney Spears and Elvis; and a tarot card reader.  More relevantly, Rolovich is also an offensive minded coach, although after playing for and coaching under June Jones, he is from the Run and Shoot coaching tree, rather than the Air Raid.  The differences are slight, aside from the way in which the quarterback makes his reads, and the fact that the run and shoot relies more on crossing routes.  But aside from that minutiae, there isn’t a huge difference.  Washington State and Hawaii ranked #1 and #2 last year in non-RPO pass plays.  That said, Rolovich has been quicker to adopt RPO concepts, so Hawaii did run the ball quite a bit more, granted almost exclusively on those RPO plays, that Washington State didn’t run.  The beneficiary there is Max Borghi, who was criminally underused in Leach’s offense.  Boghi finished second among qualified running backs in the Pac 12, with 6.4 ypc, but finished 11th in carries, at under 10 per game.  He did catch 86 passes, but he should blow past 1,000 yards on the ground this year, if he stays healthy.  The problem is who on the roster can actually play quarterback.  All three players who attempted a pass last season graduated, so its four completely inexperienced returnees, JUCO walk on transfer Will Heckman (a converted linebacker), and incoming freshman Jayden de Laura.  de Laura was a highly recruited kid from Hawaii, who Rolovich actually recruited while at Hawaii, and got offers from Ohio State and USC.  It’s weird to say a kid who isn’t even on campus yet is the prohibitive favorite to win the job at a Power Five school, but how many Power 5 schools are bringing in walk on JUCO, former linebackers in February to compete for the quarterback slot?  That brief success that Mike Leach had on defense, left when Alex Grinch left for Ohio State, fielding the #95 SP+ defense last year, squandering the #6 offense and #4 special teams.  They do rank in the top 25 in returning production, but let’s be honest, it’s not like anyone to come out of Hawaii ever cared about defense.  As bad as that side of the ball was in Pullman last year, it was even worse in Honolulu.  Jahad Woods at linebacker is the only player on the Cougar defense worth worrying about.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Max Borghi, Junior
T	Abraham Lucas, Junior
K	Blake Mazza, Junior
	.
DT	Will Rodgers III, Senior
LB	Jahad Woods, Senior
S	Skyler Thomas, Senior