| #66 Purdue Boilermakers |
| #10 in Big Ten |
Jeff Brohm isn’t even sniffing a hot seat, but let’s say the bloom is slightly off the rose. The job offers that were out there after each of his first two years in West Lafayette, simply weren’t there last year. Not really a surprise, following a 4-8 campaign. And since that big prime time upset of #2 Ohio State in October of 2018, the Boilermakers are just 6-12 overall, and 1-10 against bowl teams (0-7 last year). His best team, the 2017 team, was built off the defense that was left behind, and his offense has never really totally lived up to expectations. Last year was derailed by injuries, and a total lack of running game. You can never really predict injuries, but the run game still looks to be problematic. The pass game? Oh lord could it be fun. Losing tight end Brycen Hopkins hurts more than people realize, but the Boilermakers get the 2018 Big Ten Freshman of the Year back from injury...to pair with the 2019 Freshman of the Year. Forget having the best wide receiver pair in the Big Ten, they probably have the #1 and #2 best individual receivers in the conference. With Elijah Sindelar deciding not to return from his injury, I assumed Purdue would be the perfect destination for a grad transfer quarterback. Jack Plummer and Aidan O’Connell were fine last year, but both struggled with interceptions, and combined would have been 10th in the conference in yards per attempt. This passing game is ready to roll, you would think it would be a perfect spot for a grad transfer. Mix in play calling that passed the ball 61.6% of the time (third nationally behind only Washington State and San Jose State) for 79.8% of the yards (4th nationally), and you would think guys would be beating down the doors to come play for Purdue. A lot of that playcalling was necessitated by an awful running game, but there’s no obvious reason to think it will get better in 2020. Tario Fuller, the presumed starter, missed 9 games due to injury, but was ineffective when in, and the only four running backs on the spring roster are the four they used last year, running behind an offensive line that was one of the five worst run blocking units in the FBS. Incoming freshman Tirek Murphy was a top 20 running back recruit, the #1 player from the state of New York, but do you really want to stick an 18 year old behind that line? The most surprising thing about the early portion of Brohm’s tenure was what a good job he did defensively with what Hazell left behind, turning what had been the #103 SP+ defense in 2016, into #32 in 2017. The problem is that it immediately fell back to #88 in 2018, and #84 last year. So coordinator Nick Holt is out, and Bob Diaco was brought in. Bob Diaco coordinated Louisiana Tech’s defense last year, but last coordinated at this level at Notre Dame, which got him the UConn head coaching job. He’s got 8 returning starters to work with, including George Karlaftis, the best Purdue football defender I can think of in quite some time. While Brohm has certainly upgraded the recruiting overall, aside from Karlaftis, isn’t hasn’t necessarily been on the defensive side of the ball. His top six rated recruits last year were offensive players. Between Karlaftis, and his bookend, Derrick Barnes, Purdue should be a much better pass rushing group than they are, but they need somebody else to step up. The two combined for 15 sacks last year, with 7.5 each. Wisconsin was the only other team in the conference with multiple players with at least that many, yet Bucky ranked second in the conference, with 49 sacks, while Purdue was 12th, with just 23. If Plummer takes a leap, which isn’t a stretch for a rising true sophomore, they could get back to 7 or 8 wins, but they are way too reliant on the passing game being not just good, but elite, because the 2019 issues, remain issues.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| QB | Jack Plummer, Sophomore |
| WR | Rondale Moore, Sophomore |
| WR | David Bell, Sophomore |
| . |
| DE | George Karlaftis, Sophomore |
| DE | Derrick Barnes, Senior |
| S | Cory Trice, Sophomore |
| #65 Buffalo Bulls |
| #2 in MAC |
While going from 10-3 and a MAC Championship Game appearance to 7-5, at first glance seems like a big step back, considering the transition the Bulls had last year, it may have actually been Lance Leipold’s best coaching job at Buffalo. Quarterback Tyree Jackson decided to go pro, leaving the Bulls with the fourth least returning production in the country last year...and that was before a pair of running backs, in the rotation, transferred out; a pair of starting receivers transferred to Miami and Iowa; and their starting tight end transferred to Maryland. Their offense was absolutely gutted, and while they were only 8th in the MAC in ypp, Leipold and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki was able to massage the #4 scoring offense out of that. They were third in the MAC in third down conversion rates, second on fourth downs, they were the second least penalized team, improved their red zone conversion rate by 23%, and dominated time of possession, finishing second nationally. That was all made possible by Jaret Patterson, with an assist from an offensive line that landed all five starters on the All-Conference team. Patterson was a piece, albeit the best piece, of a running back rotation, as a freshman in 2018. After the aforementioned departures, Patterson took on a huge load, leading the MAC in carries (312), rushing yards (1,799) and rushing touchdowns (19), while still finishing third in yards per carry. Fellow junior Kevin Marks also raised his workload, running for 1,078 yards on 227 carries, albeit on a less robust 4.6 ypc. That was easily the most carries nationally for a #2 option. As far as my limited research could tell, there was no other backup running back, even on one of the triple option teams, who even had 190 carries. So, even though the Bulls ran the ball 68.9% of the time, most of any non triple-option team, they managed to do it almost solely on the backs of two guys. Starting quarterback Kyle Vantrease contributed nothing in the run game, with just 17 non-sack rush attempts. Problem was that he also didn’t contribute a ton in the passing game. The Bulls were 10th in the MAC in yards per attempt and passing efficiency, 11th in completion percentage. He had Antonio Nunn (who accounted for 33% of the team’s receptions), and not much else. Was that a product of a depleted group of receivers due to three of the top four transferring out, or did Vantrease just lock onto Nunn? Probably a little both. Vantrease seemed in over his head, and probably liked his one sure thing, but he also averaged 7.63 ypa when targeting Nunn; and 5.90 when targeting anyone else. They also leaned heavily on what was easily the best defense in MAC. While they only lost three starters, those three seniors, were the three best players in their back seven, and they lost depth. Their pass rush, which generated 10.7% sack rate, fourth best nationally, still should be outstanding, with both starting defensive ends returning, but I’m concerned about the linebacker play. The ceiling for this team is probably the highest in the MAC, if the passing game progresses, but I’m nervous about an offense relying almost entirely on two non-quarterbacks to touch the ball on 61.2% of the offensive snaps for a second straight year.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| RB | Jaret Patterson, Junior |
| WR | Antonio Nunn, Senior |
| T | Kayode Awoskia, Senior |
| . |
| DE | Taylor Riggins, Senior |
| DE | Malcolm Koonce, Senior |
| S | Tyrone Hill, Senior |
