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#86 Houston Cougars

#9 in American

Houston felt on the cusp of big boy things, landing Ed Oliver, and playing in the New Years Six.  But like Houston had occasionally in its history, every time it was on the cusp of playing with the big boys, the big boys swooped in and picked them apart.  This time, the Cougars decided they were going to spend like the big boys, poaching a Power Five school’s coach, in West Virginia’s Dana Holgorson.  The early returns?  Not favorable.  Houston stumbled to a 4-8 season, their worst since 2004, and his two best players quit the team.  Holgorson is an offensive guy, and while their offense was fine, it’s going to be a whole lot better if this is the joke of a defense he is going to roll out.  While the stated reason for D’Eriq King’s decision, at least initially, was a decision to play for 2020 in a manner that we are just only now starting to be ok with at the pro level, and we’ve never heard at the college level.  So while that got more media attention, that mentality carried over the defensive side of the ball.  The result was a predictable train wreck, that finished second worst in the American in scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense, and...hey, third worst in passing defense.  Several seniors saw their roles diminished to play some underclassmen, so now, with 8 returning starters, the hope has to be that it pays off.  The Cougars return the third most defensive production in the nation.  Holgorson is making too much money for Houston to just cut their losses after Year 2, so it’s probably co-defensive coordinators Doug Belk and Joe Cauthen who have more on the line.  They have one mega-playmaker to work with in positionless senior Grant Stuard.  Houston’s official depth chart lists him as a nickelback in a 4-2-5.  But it’s really a 4-2-4, and Stuard does all sorts of different things.  Houston’s official spring roster lists him as a linebacker.  The AAC named him as a safety in their 2019 postseason honors.  Beyond him though, very little of the youth movement showed promise.  As awful as the defense was, and as fine as the offense was, the Cougars were elite on special teams.  They have to replace punter Dane Roy, who was fifth in the nation in punting, but that’s it.  That includes kicker Dalton Witherspoon, who was 20-24 on field goals and perfect on extra points; and an elite group of returners who took 4 back for touchdowns last year, led by Marquez Stevenson’s two kick return touchdowns.  The offense has its own issues, as most of the metrics that incorporate some sort of luck factor indicate that they should have scored about 4 fewer points per game.  They were not on the field that much, converting just 34.8% of their third downs, and having the second highest giveaway rate in the conference.  But they averaged 30.7 ppg, with an expected scoring average 26.9, down nearly 13 ppg from 2018.  Houston had a top 4 class in the American in each of the past four seasons, so even with the departures they should still have enough talent to maybe flirt with bowl eligibility, but this program feels like a mess right now.  And speaking of incoming talent, the Cougars just inked their worst class in years, as Holgorson’s first complete class.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Clayton Tune, Junior
RB	Kyle Porter, Senior
WR	Marquez Stevenson, Senior
	.
DE	David Anenih, Senior
LB/S	Grant Stuard, Senior
CB	Damarion Williams, Senior

Ohio (the state) is in serious trouble. 3/4 of their teams have already burst onto the scene. Up to its armpits in the wood chipper. Only two teams remain. Pretty sure they are in the worst shape of any of the 5+ team states.