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#98 Georgia State Panthers

#6 in Sun Belt

In terms of returning starters, Georgia State’s offense appears to be in fine shape.  Then you look a little deeper, and it’s the offensive line and tight end that seemingly have a monopoly on that.  The Panthers have to replace their all-conference starting quarterback, their all-conference, Sun Belt rushing leader, running back, and two of their top three receivers.  Their best bet might just be to get as many big bodies as possible on the field, and just try to bully opponents.  They return four starting offensive linemen, three of whom played as underclassmen last year, and three of whom earned all-conference honors.  They also bring back a pair of all-conference tight ends.  And this from an offensive line that was very good last year, even playing that young, ranking #13 in the nation in average push yards, and #12 in stuff rate prevention.  This should easily be the best line in the conference.  The one proven skill position player they have is receiver Cornelius McCoy, who was tied for fourth in the league with 70 receptions.  The fact that Georgia State hasn’t brought in a transfer quarterback yet is shocking.  The roster is three redshirt freshmen, which includes a walk on, and one true freshman.  Miami transfer Jarren Williams is still out there on the market.  I’m sure he thinks higher of himself, but he graduated from Central Gwinnett, just 30 miles away from the Georgia State campus, two years ago, so you could maybe sell him on being the Day 1 starter (if he gets a waiver), close to home.  For as well as the offensive line played in 2019, the defensive line was equally as bad, bottom 10 in the FBS in the metrics where their offensive line was top 15.  Must have made for some brutal practices for them.  Iron sharpens iron, but it also cuts through paper.  Anchored by Hardrick Willis and Dontae Wilson, there is no excuse for the line not to vastly improve in 2020.  If Willis is able to build off a solid 2019, the Panthers look to be pretty strong up the middle, with inside linebacker Trajan Stephens-McQueen quarterbacking the defense from the middle, and leading the team with 110 tackles, fifth in the conference, including 8 tackles for loss.  That strength up the middle didn’t help much last year, when Georgia State allowed a Sun Belt worst 5.4 ypc, and allowed an obscene 40 touchdowns on 55 red zone trips.  There is talent on the back end, but offenses just put this team in a phone booth, and bullied them, in an age, where most offenses try to develop new ways to get their players into space.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Cornelius McCoy, Junior
TE	Aubry Payne, Senior
G	Shamarious Gilmore, Senior
	.
DE	Hardrick Willis, Junior
DT	Dontae Wilson, Senior
LB	Trajan Stephens-McQueen, Senior

#97 Kansas Jayhawks

#10 in Big XII

The overall hope with the Les Miles hire was to at least stabilize the program to a point that in a few years, a younger hire didn’t view the situation quite so direly.  There were moments, a blowout win in Chestnut Hill over Boston College on a Friday night, and a homecoming win over Texas Tech.  But even David Beatty got those, a 2018 upset win over a better TCU team, and an upset of Texas in 2017.  Ultimately the 2019 result was the same, a 3-9 season, 1-8 in the Big XII.  The Jayhawks haven’t won more than 3 games in a season since going 5-7 in 2009, and haven’t won more than one conference game since 2008.  In the eleven seasons since, Kansas has won a COMBINED 7 Big XII games.  Baylor won 8 conference games last year alone, and they got the closest thing to an NCAA death penalty just four years ago.  It’s a shame nobody gets to see just how fun Pooka Williams Jr. is.  He wound up second in the Big XII in rushing, for the second year in a row, even though he’s the only guy you have to worry about, and Kansas generally finds itself playing from behind too often to fully lean into him.  He’s enough to make an underwhelming Jayhawk offense, at least somewhat respectable.  Kansas’ weird problem is that they were more explosive than consistent, but not explosive enough.  Williams was top 30 in the nation in runs of over 10 yards and runs of over 20 yards.  But he only had 4 runs of over 30 yards, which kept him outside the top 100.  Yet, Kansas only averaged 18.7 first downs per game, second lowest in the conference, on 39% third down conversion rate, and 35% 4th down conversion rate, the worst in the Big XII.  So they were too reliant on big plays, but the big plays they got, which were fairly frequent, weren’t big enough.  Considering the bulk of returning talent is at the skill positions, that will probably be the gameplan again.  Aside from Williams, Velton Gardner flashed signs on limited touches.  JUCO transfer receiver Andrew Parchment won postseason newcomer of the year, and is their best and most consistent receiver, but Stephon Robinson Jr., and his 16.2 ypc probably scares defenses more.  But Kansas will be breaking in a new starter at quarterback, and trying to replace 3 starting offensive linemen, plus a fourth part time starter.  So the whole thing is sort of a deck of cards.  It probably doesn’t matter because of how truly terrible the defense is going to be though.  The Jayhawks fell to #106 in defensive SP+, and rank #117 in returning production.  Per Bill Connelly, the Jayhawks defense basically just didn’t allow big plays.  They were dismal at everything else.  They generated a Big XII low 17 sacks, and lose 4 of their top 6 havoc creators, including their two leading sackers.  Good luck trying to attempt to compete in the Big XII with no pass rush.  The one bright spot was true freshman linebacker Gavin Potter from Broken Arrow, Oklahoma.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Pooka Williams Jr., Junior
FB	Ben Miles, Junior
WR	Andrew Parchment, Senior
	.
LB	Gavin Potter, Sophomore
LB	Kyron Johnson, Senior
P	Kyle Thompson, Senior

#96 South Florida Bulls

#10 in American

While simply bringing Willie Taggert back seems like it would have been the easy choice, scroll a little ways back up to the UConn breakdown to see why that isn’t necessarily the best call.  The coach who worked on his way up, isn’t going to necessarily work at the same location on his way back down.  While it was a different school on his way up, South Florida sort of learned that lesson with Charlie Strong.  Instead they made a higher upside require, by hiring Clemson co-offensive coordinator Jeff Scott.  Scott was hired at Clemson in 2008 as a graduate assistant, and promoted to wide receiver coach, midseason, when Dabo Swinney was named interim coach.  When the Swinney hire was made permanent, Scott also took over as recruiting coordinator, which he held through 2014.  So the rise in talent that Clemson has undergone, yeah, that’s Swinney, but Scott very well might be the second most important person involved in that.  The level to which the talent in Tampa had depleted is inexcusable.  A number of AAC programs are at historic highs, and for South Florida to be pulling in less talent than schools like Cincinnati, Memphis and Temple, makes no sense.  Strong’s final class finished ranked outside the top 100 nationally, #9 out of 11 in the American.  They should be bringing in top 3 AAC classes, top 50-60 classes overall, every single year.  Scott inherits a young starting quarterback in Jordan McCloud, who Strong rolled with last year, for better or worse, often worse, after the often transferred Blake Barnett simply wasn’t working out.  But the result was the lowest completion rate and fewest passing touchdowns in the conference, this side of Navy, and at just 6.2 ypa, the worst passing average in the conference, to go with the lowest passing efficiency.  The run game was slightly better, but with the graduation of Jordan Cronkite, a lot more falls on Kelley Joiner, who, like McCloud played last year as a true freshman.  He averaged 5.1 ypc, but on under 7 carries per game, and nearly zero red zone work.  Considering he was a 5’9”, 175 pound 18 year old, giving him limited work, and no goal line work, makes sense.  Those dimensions aren’t really changing, so while his work load should increase, they also need a bigger back to emerge.  The answer to both questions may be power five transfers, as South Florida brought in quarterback Cade Fortin from North Carolina, and running backs Darrian Felix and Lavonte Valentine, from Oregon and South Carolina, respectively.  They also got interior defensive tackle Bo Peek from Stanford, who has already been cleared for immediate eligibility.  He should help strengthen the middle of a Bulls defense that was very good against the pass, but terrible against the run.  South Florida held teams to under 190 passing yards per game, on a solid 7.0 ypa, thanks in part to 12 interceptions, a 3.69% rate, #12 in the nation.  But the run defense allowed 4.5 ypc, over 200 yards per game, second worst in the American, to only UConn.  The Bulls had the second most lopsided run defense-pass defense splits, with 54.8% of the yards they allowed, coming on the ground.  On the whole, South Florida returns the 38th most defensive production in the nation from what was the makings of a very good defense.  The return both interior linemen, and along with the addition of Peek, means maybe the Bulls can become an elite defensive unit, from a team that lost three games where they allowed 20 points or less.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jordan McCloud, Sophomore
RB	Kelley Joiner, Sophomore
WR	Randall St. Felix, Junior
	.
LB	Dwayne Boyles, Junior
LB	Antonio Grier, Junior
CB	K.J. Sails, Senior

hard to go without a couple conference wins in the PAC and ACC

So, the ACC is the last P5 conference not with a team yet.  I'd guess Georgia Tech is their worst team, with some competition for that slot.

UNC might be pretty good this year, very good returning QB.

Ya know not sure if i even remember Georgia State.I knew there was Mercer/GTech/G.Southern/Kennesaw/Oglethorpe.Perhaps because I never bet on them

Georgia State has the largest enrollment in the state.  It's largely a commuter school but is changing apparently.  They play football in the old Braves' stadium downtown and have major expansion plans for that general area.  They should be able to find decent talent overlooked by others.  This image of course includes a level of attendance not generally seen.

[img width=500 height=263.991]https://i.imgur.com/JLohPds.jpg[/img]

I just looked up this stadium in the Font of All Wisdom and Knowledge.  This led me to other articles.  The history of Atlanta's stadiums is a convoluted one.  Turner Field didn't last very long, although perhaps longer than The Ballpark at Arlington.  A whole lot of money was spent on construction and multiple renovations of the Georgia Dome for it to have only lasted 25 years.

#93 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

#5 in Sun Belt

Asking the Chanticleers to challenge Appalachian State for a division title, after going 6-18 in three years in the Sun Belt, is asking a bit much, but expecting this team to take a massive step forward, is not.  Joe Moglia taking this program from after thought to an FCS title contender was well documented, but less noted is just how unexpected their struggles in moving up to FBS have been.  If they can stay healthy, this could be the year that all changes.  That may seem like an obvious caveat, but this roster is loaded with returning talent, 18 returning starters, including 10 on offense; with the 5th most returning offensive production in the nation.  The inefficiency of the passing game is where the most gains can be made, considering Coastal Carolina returns not one, but two starting quarterbacks.  It doesn’t make a ton of sense, both Fred Payton and Bryce Carpenter have similar skill sets, both fit their spread read option style, with comparable passing numbers and finishing second and fourth on the team in rushing.  You do wonder how much they are being held back by not being THE guy.  Both played in every game they were healthy for, Payton getting 187 pass attempts and 54 rush attempts; with Carpenter getting 142 pass attempts and 109 rushes.  When you have Isaiah Likely, who is probably the best tight end in the conference, I get the safe passing game, but they need to open it up more.  Javon Heiligh led the team in receptions, averaging just 10.8 ypc.  The Chanticleers were 11th in the FBS, second in the Group of Five, with a completion percentage of 66.78%, but averaged just 11.1 yards per completion, 20th lowest.  The problem there is that the three leading receivers last year were the aforementioned Heiligh and Likely, along with tailback C.J. Marable.  The likely breakout stars as far as deep targets go are gone due to transfer (Jai Williams) and graduation (Larry Collins Jr.).  So it looks like more of the same.  They do need to find some backfield help for Marable, who averaged nearly 120 all purpose yards per game, but put too many miles on his body.  He averaged 17 carries per game, had the second most receptions on the team, and occasionally returned kicks.  Second among tailbacks was Jacquez Hairston, who averaged less than 7 total touches per game.  So why does remaining healthy matter more to Coastal Carolina than most?  For all of that returning production, seemingly nobody backing them up wanted to stay, losing 12 players to transfer.  Most problematic is how those guys seemed to be grouped into heavy losses at certain positions, losing three running backs, three receivers, and four linebackers.  For the defense, getting defensive end Tarron Jackson back for his senior year is massive.  Their defensive success is largely based off pressure generating, and he’s the best on the team at that.  He was first in the Sun Belt in sacks, fifth in tackles for loss, and first among linemen in tackles.  Losing Sterling Jackson, the best penetrating interior lineman, will hurt that, but C.J. Brewer is a space eater, who should continue to take up blockers to Jackson to keep making plays.  For now Jackson is my preseason Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	C.J. Marable, Senior
WR	Javon Heiligh, Junior
TE	Isaiah Likely, Junior
	.
DE	Tarron Jackson, Senior
DT	C.J. Brewer, Senior
LB	Teddy Gallagher, Senior

#92 Arkansas Razorbacks

#13 in SEC

I am almost always on the side of “give the guy time” when fan bases start pushing a coach out the door after two or three years.  The almost is for cases like Chad Morris.  It was apparent that not only hadn’t it worked, but it wasn’t going to work.  He got blown out at home by Western Kentucky, and also lost at home to a bad San Jose State team, thanks to five interceptions thrown by Nick Starkel, who subsequently transferred...to San Jose State.  That said, if you are going to make that move, you expect to have someone better lined up than an offensive line coach, who turns 59 during the season, and whose last coordinator or head coaching job, was at the JUCO level, in 1993.  A lot of coaching hires that look like home runs on paper, fall apart; and a lot of Plan C and Ds wind up working out well.  But at first glance, this doesn’t seem like the type of hire from a program that knew they were going to be firing their coach.  As much as a disaster as the Morris tenure was, it’s not all on him, as Bret Bielema left the cupboard quite empty.  The Razorback transfer portal activity seems to be evidence of that.  Thirteen players transferred out, five transferred in, four of which came from Power Five programs.  The most recognizable name is former Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks, who is going to be looked to to settle a quarterback room that was an absolute mess last year.  Nick Starkel (transferred out) started 5 games, Ben Hicks (graduated, after transferring from SMU to follow Morris) started 4 games, K.J. Jefferson started 1, Jack Lindsey started 1, and John Stephen Jones started 1.  They combined to complete just 49.4% of their passes, fourth worst in the nation.  Franks had issues with his accuracy earlier in his career, but improved from his freshman year to his sophomore year, rising by 4%, and seeing his TD:INT ratio go from 9:8 to 24:6.  Then, it was only a three game sample size, with 71 attempts, but last year he had a 76.1% completion rate before getting injured.  That would have been second to only Joe Burrow over the course of a full season, granted extrapolating 71 attempts out to 300+ is certainly problematic.  He will have Rakeem Boyd to lean on, the one Razorback who actually did show out last year, with 1,133 yards on 6.3 ypc.  You do wonder if while maybe not going all the way to the Herm Edwards CEO/face of the program model, if they are leaning into what worked at LSU last year, with Coach Orgeron serving as the face, and leaning heavily on a pair of elite coordinators.  I suppose the question is whether they have elite coordinators.  They certainly paid them like they were.  Kendal Briles is at his fifth offensive coordinator stop in as many years.  He took Florida Atlantic from #67 to #30 in SP+ in his one year there (2017). Then in one year at Houston they went from #43 to #20 (2018).  Then last year, Florida State went from #97 to #49, but new coach Mike Norvell elected not to retain Briles.  Not too many 37 year olds out there with coordinating experience at five different FBS schools.  The defense is now up to former Missouri coach Barry Odom, who was fired after going 25-25 in four seasons.  But prior to that he was a highly thought of defensive coordinator at the school.  He certainly has his work cut out for him, building basically from scratch on a unit that was worst in the SEC a year ago, and saw five senior starters graduate, and one leave early in Kamren Curl.  They did add a pair of former 4* grad transfers in lineman Xavier Kelly from Clemson, and linebacker Levi Draper from Oklahoma.  But the defense is a LONG ways away.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Feleipe Franks, Senior
RB	Rakeem Boyd, Senior
WR	Mike Woods, Junior
	.
LB	Bumper Pool, Junior
CB	Montaric Brown, Junior
S	Joe Foucha, Junior