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#119 Northern Illinois Huskies

#10 in MAC

I don’t think anyone really questioned hiring Thomas Hammock to replace Rod Carey.  Hammock played for Joe Novak when the program was first transitioning to what was then Division 1A.  He spent nine years coaching in the Big Ten at Wisconsin and Minnesota, including being an associate head coach and running backs coach in Madison from 2011-2013, before spending 5 years as a running backs coach in the NFL.  But year 1 did not go well, to the extent that the team’s best player, running back Tre Harbison sat out the season finale after announcing he was entering the transfer portal.  Not just waiting the four games, to preserve your redshirt, literally just quitting on your team prior to the final game.  It will be a tall task for Hammock in 2020 to avoid the program’s first consecutive bowl-less seasons since 2002 and 2003.  And just to show how much the bar for bowl inclusion has lowered since then, the 2002 team went 8-4, and tied for a division title, and the 2003 team went 10-2, just neither got bowl invites.  This is looking like their first consecutive losing seasons since 1998 and 1999, their third and fourth years in 1A.  The one bit of good luck is that in an age where quarterbacks are hitting the transfer portal at the first sign they might not be the starter, Marcus Childers, who was the MAC Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2017, before struggling in 2018, and being replaced by Cal transfer Ross Bowers last year, has stuck with the program, and figures to be the starter again in 2020.  The flip side to that, is that we haven’t seen the really good Childers since that freshman campaign, three years ago.  From his freshman to his sophomore year, he saw his yards per attempt drop by 0.8, his interceptions double, and his sacks skyrocket from 1 per 14.7 pass attempts to 1 per 9.2 attempts.  A lot of that was on him, taking way too long, and relying too much on his legs.  I have a hard time seeing how a year spent being the change of pace quarterback changes that saw him get into 9 games, but wind up being the team’s second leading rusher.  A pair of young cornerbacks helped stabilize the Huskies secondary, and now they will be counted on even more, due to the graduation of both starting safeties.  Jalen McKie and Dillon Thomas took over as sophomores, and led a Northern Illinois pass defense that had allowed the third lowest completion percentage and yards per game in the MAC.  Their coverage is great, now they’ve got to work on their hands.  Northern Illinois had the third lowest interception rate in the FBS, with those starting cornerbacks combining for just 1.  The do have a major difference maker on the line in Jack Heflin, who led the team in tackles for loss and sacks, despite not even being a starter.  He was part of a lethal interior rotation last year, but the Huskies need to get a lot more out of their edge rushers.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Cole Tucker, Junior
TE	Mitchell Brinkman, Senior
K	John Richardson, Sophomore
	.
DT	Jack Heflin, Senior
LB	Vinny Labus, Junior
CB	Jalen McKie, Junior

I still think of NIU as being a "worth G5 program/opponent".  When a normally good G5 program slips, I don't notice it.

UI might be somewhere in the 60s maybe along with NW, no?  Let's GUESS

NIU #119 (not a guess)

NW #71

UI #65

That puts the state competitive for lowest 3 team rankings.

And just like that Ohio is a quarter of the way down the plank.

#117 San Jose State Spartans

#11 in Mountain West

I didn’t think I’d ever be writing that San Jose State fans need to hope that their incoming SEC grad transfer quarterback is anywhere close to what they had in a departing senior.  But that departed senior was 2019 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Josh Love, the first Spartan to win a conference offensive player of the year award, going back at least to San Jose State’s move from the Big West to the WAC in 1996.  And that incoming transfer is Nick Starkel, who is now on his third school in three years.  He left Texas A&M for Arkansas after getting passed by Kellen Mond then left Arkansas after getting passed over there.  The humorous part about San Jose State even wanting him is that Jordon Love threw for over 400 yards in a stunning upset of the Razorbacks, in Fayetteville, thanks in large part to Nick Starkel throwing 5 interceptions.  He will get plenty of chances to throw the ball all over the play, thanks to a pair of returning all conference receivers, and an offensive system that doesn’t want to run, with personnel that can’t run.  The Spartans ran the ball 24.6 times per game last year, 36.1% of their plays.  Only Mike Leach was more run averse.  It helps to play behind an elite pass blocking line, that only surrendered 14 sacks on the season.  Only Air Force gave up fewer among conference teams, and they passed the ball 9.7 times per game, as opposed to 41.5.  The Spartans had the second lowest sack rate in the FBS, at just 2.71%, with 29% of their sacks coming in their season ending comeback win over Fresno State.  Starting left tackle Jack Snyder is back, but right tackle Quinn Oseland, and all-Mountain West guard Troy Kowalski, and their top rotational tackle and guard all graduated.  Even with all of those in play last year, and an upset win in their payday SEC game, San Jose State still didn’t make it to a bowl, thanks to surrendering a 70 yard drive to UNLV in just 94 seconds, in the final 3 minutes of the game.  So it’s tough to see a path there this year, particularly with Penn State replacing Arkansas as their bodybag game, and trips to Boise State, Fresno State, and San Diego State among their conference slate.  The defense, which was great against the pass, but awful against the run last year, figures to be the same, as they struggle to win in the trenches with their 3-4.  You can’t pull that off without a nose tackle, and starter Sailosi Latu graduated, with the two guys behind him on the depth chart, Demanuel Talauati and Terrell Townsend, both entering the transfer portal.  San Jose State gave up 232 rushing ypg, on 4.8 ypc a year ago, thanks to opponents running the ball 48.2 times per game against them.  Considering how weak San Jose State looks to be again at the point of attack, I’d plan on more of the same.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Tre Walker, Senior
WR	Bailey Gaither, Senior
T	Jack Snyder, Senior
	.
LB	Kyle Harmon, Junior
LB	Rico Tolefree, Junior
S	Jay Lenard, Senior

It's interesting, to me, how you track this, sort of fun.  And why not?  I was thinking that my state has Georgia State and Georgia Southern and Kennesaw State.  They should all crap up fairly soon along with that other team.

Auburn?  Methinks you'll be waiting a while.

Twas a joke, sorta.

They recruit like it's in-state, the fanbase in GA is substantial, the only thing is the campus is about 30 miles too far to the west.

It wasn't that long ago when GA and NC weren't all that much bigger than AL, LA, and SC.  They were maybe 30-40% larger back in 1990, but now they're twice as big.

And speaking of GA and NC, they have been neck-and-neck population-wise for a good long while.  It's interesting to note that despite these similarities, NC isn't anywhere near the recruiting hotbed Georgia is (in fact, it probably takes a backseat to states like LA, MS, AL, and SC).  It's probably due to the fact that football isn't as emphasized in NC (it's all about pingpong on hardwood there) while in GA it's football first, second, and third.  That said, GA is no slouch in high school hoops, but it's clearly not as good as NC (and lots of HS hotshots in GA go to ACC schools anyway).