Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I always close with it.  It's generally pretty useless.  I will say two things, very conclusively (i) Oklahoma, with a little bit of guys returning to school luck is poised to be absolutely loaded; and (ii) with what Michigan should have back combined with what OSU has to replace, and the game being in Ann Arbor, if Harbaugh doesn't beat OSU next year, he does deserve to be fired.

#117 San Jose State Spartans

#11 in Mountain West

I didn’t think I’d ever be writing that San Jose State fans need to hope that their incoming SEC grad transfer quarterback is anywhere close to what they had in a departing senior.  But that departed senior was 2019 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Josh Love, the first Spartan to win a conference offensive player of the year award, going back at least to San Jose State’s move from the Big West to the WAC in 1996.  And that incoming transfer is Nick Starkel, who is now on his third school in three years.  He left Texas A&M for Arkansas after getting passed by Kellen Mond then left Arkansas after getting passed over there.  The humorous part about San Jose State even wanting him is that Jordon Love threw for over 400 yards in a stunning upset of the Razorbacks, in Fayetteville, thanks in large part to Nick Starkel throwing 5 interceptions.  He will get plenty of chances to throw the ball all over the play, thanks to a pair of returning all conference receivers, and an offensive system that doesn’t want to run, with personnel that can’t run.  The Spartans ran the ball 24.6 times per game last year, 36.1% of their plays.  Only Mike Leach was more run averse.  It helps to play behind an elite pass blocking line, that only surrendered 14 sacks on the season.  Only Air Force gave up fewer among conference teams, and they passed the ball 9.7 times per game, as opposed to 41.5.  The Spartans had the second lowest sack rate in the FBS, at just 2.71%, with 29% of their sacks coming in their season ending comeback win over Fresno State.  Starting left tackle Jack Snyder is back, but right tackle Quinn Oseland, and all-Mountain West guard Troy Kowalski, and their top rotational tackle and guard all graduated.  Even with all of those in play last year, and an upset win in their payday SEC game, San Jose State still didn’t make it to a bowl, thanks to surrendering a 70 yard drive to UNLV in just 94 seconds, in the final 3 minutes of the game.  So it’s tough to see a path there this year, particularly with Penn State replacing Arkansas as their bodybag game, and trips to Boise State, Fresno State, and San Diego State among their conference slate.  The defense, which was great against the pass, but awful against the run last year, figures to be the same, as they struggle to win in the trenches with their 3-4.  You can’t pull that off without a nose tackle, and starter Sailosi Latu graduated, with the two guys behind him on the depth chart, Demanuel Talauati and Terrell Townsend, both entering the transfer portal.  San Jose State gave up 232 rushing ypg, on 4.8 ypc a year ago, thanks to opponents running the ball 48.2 times per game against them.  Considering how weak San Jose State looks to be again at the point of attack, I’d plan on more of the same.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Tre Walker, Senior
WR	Bailey Gaither, Senior
T	Jack Snyder, Senior
	.
LB	Kyle Harmon, Junior
LB	Rico Tolefree, Junior
S	Jay Lenard, Senior

#93 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

#5 in Sun Belt

Asking the Chanticleers to challenge Appalachian State for a division title, after going 6-18 in three years in the Sun Belt, is asking a bit much, but expecting this team to take a massive step forward, is not.  Joe Moglia taking this program from after thought to an FCS title contender was well documented, but less noted is just how unexpected their struggles in moving up to FBS have been.  If they can stay healthy, this could be the year that all changes.  That may seem like an obvious caveat, but this roster is loaded with returning talent, 18 returning starters, including 10 on offense; with the 5th most returning offensive production in the nation.  The inefficiency of the passing game is where the most gains can be made, considering Coastal Carolina returns not one, but two starting quarterbacks.  It doesn’t make a ton of sense, both Fred Payton and Bryce Carpenter have similar skill sets, both fit their spread read option style, with comparable passing numbers and finishing second and fourth on the team in rushing.  You do wonder how much they are being held back by not being THE guy.  Both played in every game they were healthy for, Payton getting 187 pass attempts and 54 rush attempts; with Carpenter getting 142 pass attempts and 109 rushes.  When you have Isaiah Likely, who is probably the best tight end in the conference, I get the safe passing game, but they need to open it up more.  Javon Heiligh led the team in receptions, averaging just 10.8 ypc.  The Chanticleers were 11th in the FBS, second in the Group of Five, with a completion percentage of 66.78%, but averaged just 11.1 yards per completion, 20th lowest.  The problem there is that the three leading receivers last year were the aforementioned Heiligh and Likely, along with tailback C.J. Marable.  The likely breakout stars as far as deep targets go are gone due to transfer (Jai Williams) and graduation (Larry Collins Jr.).  So it looks like more of the same.  They do need to find some backfield help for Marable, who averaged nearly 120 all purpose yards per game, but put too many miles on his body.  He averaged 17 carries per game, had the second most receptions on the team, and occasionally returned kicks.  Second among tailbacks was Jacquez Hairston, who averaged less than 7 total touches per game.  So why does remaining healthy matter more to Coastal Carolina than most?  For all of that returning production, seemingly nobody backing them up wanted to stay, losing 12 players to transfer.  Most problematic is how those guys seemed to be grouped into heavy losses at certain positions, losing three running backs, three receivers, and four linebackers.  For the defense, getting defensive end Tarron Jackson back for his senior year is massive.  Their defensive success is largely based off pressure generating, and he’s the best on the team at that.  He was first in the Sun Belt in sacks, fifth in tackles for loss, and first among linemen in tackles.  Losing Sterling Jackson, the best penetrating interior lineman, will hurt that, but C.J. Brewer is a space eater, who should continue to take up blockers to Jackson to keep making plays.  For now Jackson is my preseason Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	C.J. Marable, Senior
WR	Javon Heiligh, Junior
TE	Isaiah Likely, Junior
	.
DE	Tarron Jackson, Senior
DT	C.J. Brewer, Senior
LB	Teddy Gallagher, Senior

#71 Northwestern Wildcats

#11 in Big Ten

Northwestern kept pushing just how far they could go with as inept an offense as they had year in and year out, and it finally bit them.  In fairness, they reached the Big Ten title game the year prior with the #94 SP+ offense, relying solely on the #30 defense.  Their defense actually improved in 2019, up to #27, but their offense fell off a cliff to #123, which resulted in a flip from 8-1 in conference play, to 1-8.  It was the worst season in Evanston since they went winless in Big Ten play in Gary Barnett’s final season, in 1998.  That was finally the impetus for Pat Fitzgerald to move on from Mick McCall, who had been his offensive coordinator since 2008, and bring in Mike Bajakian from Boston College.  It was time for a fresh start, but this hire is not exactly inspiring.  Bajakian was Butch Jones’ offensive coordinator across three different schools (Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Tennessee) from 2007-2014.  He then spent four years in the NFL as quarterbacks coach with the Buccaneers “grooming” top pick Jameis Winston.  Yikes.  But Boston College’s offense, particularly the passing game, saw significant improvement in his one year there.  That’s what impact Fitzgerald has to hope he has on his quarterbacks, who were absolutely awful last year, averaging an FBS worst 4.5 ypa.  The Wildcats were getting T.J. Green back, following a season ending injury in 2018, and more importantly, adding Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson, a former 5 star recruit.  Green got hurt again, Johnson was horrible, and third stringer, Aidan Smith, who hadn’t attempted a pass through his first three seasons, ended the year as the starter, and best option.  All three are back in 2020, but the Johnson disaster did not scare Fitzgerald away from hitting the transfer portal again.  This time adding Peyton Ramsey as a grad transfer from Indiana.  Ramsey was second in the Big Ten in completion percentage last year, fourth in QBR.  If the quarterback play is merely decent this year, instead of worst in the FBS, the offense could actually be ok.  True freshman Drake Anderson, didn’t exactly call back the dynamic offenses his father played for in Evanston at the turn of the millennium, but considering the loaded boxes he was facing, he stayed healthy, and was moderately effective.  They may have stumbled into something late with Evan Hull, who only played in four games, but averaged over 6 ypc; and they have to hope Isaiah Bowser regains his form.  He was arguably the second best tailback over the second half of 2018, but never got on track in 2019.  While the offensive line was the main problem in 2018, it was actually decent last year, and now returns four starters, including All-Big Ten tackle Rashawn Slater.  They could be one of the five best units in the conference.  If the offense is just like #80 or so in SP+, the team could be a major bounce back candidate, because the defense appears to be absolutely loaded, particularly in the back seven.  They return 8 starters from a top 30 defense a year ago, led by linebacker Paddy Fisher, who could be preseason Big Ten defensive player of the year.  The Wildcats’ have the #17 projected SP+ defense for this year.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Drake Anderson, Sophomore
WR	Riley Lees, Senior
WR	Rashawn Slater, Senior
	.
LB	Paddy Fisher, Senior
LB	Blake Gallagher, Senior
S	Travis Whillock, Senior

#13 Michigan Wolverines

#5 in Big Ten

For Michigan there is no measure of success other than beating Ohio State, to reach Indianapolis.  Harbaugh has flipped the Michigan State rivalry back, and avoided bad losses.  But I think we’ve reached a point where Michigan either gets past the Buckeyes, or they don’t.  7-5 and a Holiday Bowl probably feels about the same as 10-2 and a Citrus Bowl to Wolverines fans at this point.  The problem is, over the past four seasons, the years Michigan I think has had the better team (2016 and 2018), they had to go to Columbus, and they got home games in the years they were clearly inferior.  Problem this year is Ohio State is both better, and at home.  I think that flips next year, but in May of 2020 the last thing Michigan fans want to hear is “wait til November 2021”.  The offense should be interesting, with coordinator Josh Gattis with a full year under his belt.  All of the reports are that the starting quarterback is a battle between Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton, but I think everyone would be shocked if it’s anyone but McCaffrey.  Shea Patterson regressed during his time in Ann Arbor, and some fresh blood back there should be good.  Obviously the strength of the offense is the running backs, bolstered by the return of Chris Evans after missing all of 2019 with academic issues.  The speedster joins the workhorse Zach Charbonnet, and Hassan Haskins, the breakout surprise of the 2019 offense.  The Wolverines ran the ball only the 9th most frequently in the Big Ten last year.  I think that needs to be up in the top four, depending on the offensive line play.  And as obviously as the running backs are the strength of the offense, the line is the weakness.  They have to break in four new starters, although when the one returning starter, Jalen Mayfield, is projected to possibly be the first tackle off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft, weakness is relative.  While on paper Michigan should have had the best receivers in the conference last year, Donovan Peoples-Jones never learned how to run a route, and Tarik Black couldn’t stay healthy.  I think their departure may actually lead to a better overall group.  The more you get the ball into the hands of Giles Jackson, the better.  The defensive line might lack the depth they had a couple years ago, but the starting four might be the best Don Brown has had to work with.  Don Brown’s lines usually benefit from the constantly blitzing linebackers, but that might not necessarily be the case as much this year, so it’s a good year to have a group up front that should be able to get so much done on their own.  Cam McGrone showed a lot of potential last year as a redshirt freshman, but also made some critical freshman mistakes.  He better grow up in a hurry, because he’s just about the only certainty for Michigan at that level.  Much like the line, the secondary has some really high top end players, but some questions behind them.  Cornerback Ambry Thomas has always been underappreciated by the media, under Jeremy Clark, David Long and Lavert Hill.  I think Thomas is better than all those guys, and now has a chance to show it.  Daxton Hill showed right away as a true freshman why Alabama tried so hard to flip him.  Depending on what you consider Jabrill Peppers to be, Hill is on a trajectory to be the best safety Michigan has had since Corwin Brown.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Zach Charbonnet, Sophomore
WR	Nico Collins, Senior
TE	Nick Eubanks, Senior
	.
DE	Kwity Paye, Senior
DT	Carlo Kemp, Senior
CB	Ambry Thomas, Senior