Saturday, day late
#82 UAB Blazers |
#5 in Conference USA |
Everything in the UAB rebuild was set up for 2018, and the Blazers pulled it off, with a conference title. But 2019 was supposed to be a reset year. As wrong as I was about Syracuse, I did not drop UAB nearly as much as others, still picking them to win the conference, while the media picked them fourth place...in their own division. The Blazers used a perfect home record to return to the conference championship game, and while Florida Atlantic laid them flat, the season was certainly a success, when most didn’t expect them to compete for a division title. Their New Orleans Bowl performance, a 14 point loss to a top 20 Appalachian State team, where UAB held a second half lead, was also fairly impressive. The defense looks to be absolutely stacked. They return 8 starters, including 6 of their 8 All-Conference USA players from a year ago on that side of the ball, with that group including either a pair of linemen, or a pair of linebackers, and 3/4 of the secondary. I say either linemen or linebacker because Jordan Smith’s flexibility allows defensive coordinator David Reeves to move him back at forth to match the defense, and the two-time Broyles Award nominee has been very adept at finding the perfect way to use him, leading the team in sacks and tackles for loss, 3rd and 5th in the conference respectively. The defense last year was no chopped liver, leading the conference in total defense and passing defense (in ypp), second in scoring defense and rushing defense. It’s the elite secondary that allows Reeves to play around so much up front. The Blazers allowed just 6.1 ypa on 51% completions, easily best in the conference, and 13th and 3rd best in the nation respectively. I could have taken any of them as the key player, and while statistically he might not be the obvious pick, but senior cornerback T.D. Marshall is the leader on that back end. If there are any small nits to pick, its that they, as an entire defense, only generated 7 interceptions, with only one player, safety Will Boler (who had 2) nabbing more than one. The offense is still a work in progress though. The pieces are there for an elite passing game, with the conference’s best pair of tackles returning, but from a line that severely underperformed last year, ranking in the bottom half of the FBS across the board by Football Outsider metrics. And they’ve got a pair of all-conference receivers, averaged 8.3 ypa, second best in the conference, yet threw the ball just 24.5 times per game, barely ahead of Charlotte for least in the conference. Now maybe some of that had to do with the 20 interceptions they threw, being a staggering 6.29% of their attempts. That was easily the worst in the nation, almost a full percent higher than Rutgers. Tyler Johnson III likely remains the starter, but it he should be a bigger threat with his running than he was last year. The Blazers cycled through three running backs a year ago, none of whom were particularly effective, but a lot of that had to do with how terrible the interior of the offensive line was.
| KEY PLAYERS |
WR | Austin Watkins Jr., Senior |
WR | Myron Mitchell, Senior |
T | Colby Raglund, Senior |
| . |
DE | Jordan Smith, Junior |
LB | Kristopher Moll, Senior |
CB | T.D. Marshall, Senior |
#81 Southern Miss Golden Eagles |
#4 in Conference USA |
While Southern Miss maybe pulled the trigger on Ellis Johnson too quickly, after one 0-12 season, I was a little surprised to see Jay Hopson get a fifth season, the way things are now, after four thoroughly mediocre seasons. He’s been bowl eligible every season, but never lost fewer than 5 games, and never finished higher than third in the division. While receiver Quez Watkins’ decision to forego his senior years certainly hurts, the Golden Eagles’ passing attack should continue to be lethal, particularly if Jaylond Adams, who might be the best returner in the nation, can step up as a receiver as well, because even without Watkins, Tim Jones is probably going to be a preseason all-conference player. Jones was a 1st team All-American receiver in high school by some publications, but his small frame scared some bigger players away, including Alabama, who recruited him early, but never offered. The talent has always been there though. Plus they have senior Jack Abraham running the show, after leading the conference in passing, and finishing second in efficiency. His only issue is interceptions, which he threw 15 of. That was third most in the country, but most guys who throw interceptions at that rate, don’t keep their jobs. The defense has a chance to take a major step forward, with plenty of returning individual talent. But they had all of that individual talent, and it simply didn’t mesh, allowing 26.2 ppg, squarely in the middle of the conference. The Golden Eagles, however, were much closer to being a very good defense, but simply couldn’t translate it into scoring defense. They allowed 10 plays of 50 yards or more, and had a secondary that despite allowing a completion percentage below 60%, surrendered conference worst 8.4 ypa and 27 passing touchdowns. That equates to a fourth worst in the FBS rate of 14.7 ypc. Oddly that’s also only the second worst mark in the state (wait your turn Bulldogs). You cut down on the big plays, and you flip the turnover numbers, after finishing worst in the conference, 8th worst nationally, in 2019, and you can easily see the makings of a division winner. There are going to be multiple preseason all-conference players at every level, the defensive talent is that good. That may seem like a low bar for a school that won a third of the conference titles in the first fifteen years of its existence (1996-2011), particularly is a far worse version of the conference, but Southern Miss hasn’t even won a division title in five years, going on nine since the last of those five conference titles.
| KEY PLAYERS |
QB | Jack Abraham, Senior |
WR | Tim Jones, Junior |
G | Arvin Fletcher, Senior |
| . |
DE | Jacques Turner, Senior |
LB | Swayze Bozeman, Senior |
S | Ky |