Illinois Fighting Illini (2-0) at #22 South Florida Bulls (2-0)
Friday @ 7:00 - Tampa, FL - ESPN
Just when everyone was ready to write off the Illini's season, they turned in a strong defensive performance in a home win over Western Kentucky. That's where Illinois football is though, when a win over Western Kentucky, at home, is a pleasant surprise. South Florida has been sluggish out of the gate for the team picked to be the Group of Five entry into the New Years Six. They spotted San Jose State a 16-0 lead before scoring 42 straight; and was tied with FCS Stony Brook in the 4th quarter. A lot of their struggles has been due to the antithesis of Beamer Ball. They've had a punt blocked in each game, with San Jose State returning it to the 6 to set up a touchdown, and Stony Brook scoring off theirs. The Illini blocked a field goal to escape against Ball State, so don't be surprised to see Illinois extend South Florida's special teams misery. It was commented here last week that Western Kentucky's offense looked off without Brohm, and boy was it off again on Saturday. Illinois' run defense was dominant, holding the Hilltoppers to only 6 yards on 0.6 ypc. Not 6.0 ypc, 6 total rushing yards. The Bulls will hit you with multiple running options though, with Darius Tice and D'Ernest Johnson getting about as equal a backfield split as you'll see, with 36 carries for Tice and 35 for Johnson. Then mix in Quinton Flowers, one of the most dangerous running quarterbacks in the nation. A year ago, Flowers' 1,530 rushing yards was #2 nationally among quarterbacks, behind only Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, and good for #12 overall. His 7.7 ypc was tops among quarterbacks nationally. Running the ball isn't a problem for Illinois' Chayce Crouch either. He had 44 yards on the ground, including a touchdown in Saturday's win, but his QBR of 18.6 is worst in the Big Ten so far, and their 126.0 ypg through the air is last in the conference by over 60 ypg. The Dudek-Turner duo hasn't been nearly as good together as each was individually, but even more problematic is nobody stepping up around them. The rest of the WR corps combined have 3 catches for 14 yards.
SOUTH FLORIDA 31, ILLINOIS 12
Northern Illinois Huskies (1-1) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-1)
NOON - Lincoln, NE - FS1
The Huskies are in Week 3 and already taking on their second Power 5 school. They gave Boston College all they could handle in their home opener, but missed a 39 yard FG with 21 seconds left that would have sent it to overtime. Either way, Northern Illinois looks improved from the 5-7 team a year ago, their worst season since 2007. Their biggest issue a year ago was quarterback helath, down to their 4th string at times. Well, they are going down that road again. Ryan Graham, who led the near upset of Boston College is out 2-4 weeks with a sprained elbow, so they turned to Daniel Santacaterina, who was very impressive against Eastern Illinois. He certainly isn't the running threat that Graham is, who was the team's leading rusher with 99 yards against Boston College, but he's a much better passer. Graham struggled throwing the ball against the Eagles, completing less than 40% of his passes. Santacaterina was 23-34 for 252 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, looking much better than when pressed into duty for the final two games of 2016. Granted he was playing an FCS foe, but it's unclear how much better than that Nebraska is on defense. The glimmer of hope is the shutout they pitched in the second half in Eugene last Saturday, after giving up 42 in the first half, giving them a total of 78 points allowed through 3 halves of football (52 ppg). Even with that 2nd half improvement, Nebraska is last in the Big Ten in scoring defense, total defense, pass efficiency defense, sacks, 1st downs allowed, you get it. Tanner Lee cannot continue to put the defense in bad spots. He looked like the guy we saw at Tulane in a 4 interception, 13.4 QBR disaster of an outing. With Tre Bryant's status unknown, Lee will probably have to continue to be aggressive, but he has to learn to make the smart play.
NEBRASKA 38, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 24
#10 Wisconsin Badgers (2-0) at BYU Cougars (1-2)
3:30 - Provo, UT - ABC
There are few such things in college football as gimme road games, and if there is a short list of such places, Provo is far from it. But BYU looks like an absolute mess on offense right now. They are averaging 11.0 ppg thus far, and that's aided by a 20-6 win over FCS Portland State. As bad as Oregon State is, even they put up 35 points on the Vikings. Against FBS competition, the Cougars have 6.5 ppg. They were outgained by Utah last week at home 430-233, but on 7 red zone trips, Utah came away with 4 FGs, 1 TD, 1 turnover on downs and the end of the game. Banking on that is not a winning formula. You get the Badgers in that situation and they'll just run over you. After a rough start, mostly fueled by turnovers, the Wisconsin offense has been playing much better over the past 6 quarters. A couple of young guys are finding their legs, suggesting that continued improvement will follow. PFF graded sophomore OT David Edwards as the top offensive lineman in the conference last week, and redshirt freshman center Tyler Biadasz (which I choose to pronounce as badass) isn't far behind. Slow starts have been BYU's thing recently though. In 2010 they started 1-4 and then won 6 of their final 8; in 2011 they went 9-1 after starting 1-2; in 2013, a 1-2 start was followed by a 5 game winning streak; in 2015 they only lost 1 regular season game after a 2-2 start; and then last year a 1-3 start was followed by an 8-1 finish, with the lone loss being by 1 on the road to Boise State, and included a thumping of Michigan State. It's tough to imagine BYU's offense will keep looking like this. Tanner Mangum has played quite a bit the last two seasons, including being the starter for most of 2015 when he threw for 3,377 yards, 23 touchdowns to 10 interceptions and had a 70.7 QBR. But he lacks anything around him, and 150 ypg with a QBR of 20 isn't a fluke. You'd say they'd be fired up for a big home game like this, but they've played nothing but big games. They had one of those Labor Day weekend neutral site marquees against LSU, and a home game against their arch-rival Utah. I think they are what they are.
WISCONSIN 31, BYU 14
North Texas Mean Green (1-1) at Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0)
3:30 - Iowa City, IA - espn2
As good as the Hawkeye defense looked in Week 1, it looked that bad in Week 2. Jacob Park slung the ball all over the field on the Iowa secondary, putting up 347 yards in the air as part of a 467 yard output. Before you mention the game went into overtime, the Cyclones had 12 yards of offense (9 passing) in the one overtime. So what comes next? Only Conference USA's most prolific passing offense, led by Mason Fine who is averaging over 320 yards per game, and 9.5 ypp average is behind only Shea Patterson (Ole Miss) and Josh Rosen (UCLA) among quarterbacks with at least 65 attempts. In a game that largely looked like the college version of a Texas high school game last week, North Texas threw 47 times for 424 yards against SMU...while allowing 394 yards on 41 attempts. Fine wants to spread it around. Last week seven players had at least 3 catches, with four having over 65 receiving yards. SMU, not noted for it's defense, held North Texas to 69 rushing on 2.6 ypc. But, and granted it was against FCS Lamar, the week prior, the Mean Green ran the ball 60 times for 436 yards (7.3 ypc), with three different back hitting 98 yards on the ground. That's not going to be their identity. Iowa should get ahead and force North Texas to throw. Playing against a lesser defense like NOrth Texas should be good work for a revamped Iowa offensive line, forced to shuffle around due to the season ending injury to left tackle Ike Boettger. Sean Welsh, arguably the conference's top interior lineman now slides outside. They have to get it figured out now with #5 Penn State and a suddenly reenergized Michigan State to follow. Not a time to be having offensive line synergy issues.
IOWA 48, NORTH TEXAS 20
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-1) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-0)
3:30 - Minneapolis, MN - BTN
Welcome to the party Minnesota. After scuffling around with Buffalo and Pac 12 bottom feeder Oregon State for 6 quarters, the Gophers finally woke up, and closed Saturday on a 31-0 run to bury the Beavers. There remain some questions about the consistency of Minnesota's offense, leaning on two 65+ yard plays and a +2 in turnover margin. Plus is a 58:8 run to pass ratio sustainable against Big Ten opponents? It's tough to tell if that's what Minnesota has to do right now, or if because of opponents, that's all that was necessary. The Blue Raiders upset Minnesota in the first round of the NCAA Basketball Tournament in March, and are coming off a Power 5 win over Syracuse. Middle Tennessee did a pretty good job shutting down a Syracuse team which, despite its many flaws, was supposed to have a pretty explosive offense this year. Instead they generated all kinds of chaos in the backfield, tallying five sacks, forcing Eric Dungey to run for his life all afternoon, and dominating the line of scrimmage, holding the Orange to 2.6 ypc. Minnesota doesn't want to spread you out and attack the gaps, the way Dino Babers does. They are going to run right at you. When you run the ball 58 times and pass it only 8 (and you aren't a triple-option team) deception is not your forte. Middle Tennessee isn't exactly a cupcake, but also lets not overreact to the Syracuse win. The week before they got housed at home by Vanderbilt by 28-6 in a game they trailed 28-0 in the 4th quarter, and mustered only 215 yards of total offense, only 125 of which came prior to the 4th quarter.
MINNESOTA 30, MIDDLE TENNESSEE 10
Morgan State Bears (0-2) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-2)
3:30 - Piscataway, NJ - BTN
RUTGERS 42, MORGAN STATE 0
Purdue Boilermakers (1-1) at Missouri Tigers (1-1)
4:00 - Columbia, MO - SECN
For the first time in close to a decade there is optimism surrounding the Purdue football program. Playing Louisville close opened some eyes, but then in Week 2, Purdue did what solid Big Ten teams do, they bury their MAC warm up games. That may seem like a low bar, but the Boilermakers had lost 3 of their 4 games against MAC opponents over the previous four years. What I did learn from Hammer and Rails is how rare a scheduled Purdue vs. SEC game is. They haven't played one since travelling to Vanderbilt in 1942, and four of their six matchups occurred prior to the SEC actually forming, leaving that 1941-1942 home and home with the Dores as the extent of the Boilers scheduled SEC meetings. Since Purdue lost those 3-0 and 26-0, you could say they have never scored a point in a scheduled game against an SEC foe. Anyway, all of that is meaningless for Saturday's game. I'll go out on a limb and say they break that scoreless streak. A major reason is because the Tiger defense was so bad, they let their coordinator go after only two games due to "philosophical differences." My guess was giving up 43 points to an FCS opponent was not part of Barry Odom's philosophy. Missouri played much better last week in their 31-13 loss to South Carolina than the score would indicate. But when you lose the turnover battle 3-0, and give up a kick return touchdown, bad things happen. There is no doubt Purdue is going to move the ball, the question is whether they can stop Missouri. I thought they did pretty well containing Lamar Jackson in Week 1, but they seemed content to rely on a bend but don't break against Ohio, that worked because they forced turnovers, and David Blough was crazy efficient, as in 85% completion rate, on over 18 ypa, with 3 touchdowns and no picks. He's splitting time, so while his totals aren't great, his efficiency numbers are off the charts. His 74.4% completion rate is best in the Big Ten, by 10% over Brian Lewerke, who is seconds. His passer rating of 194.7 and Total QBR of 79.7 is 20 points and 5 points respectively higher than Nathan Stanley, who is in 2nd for both. If 13 passes was enough to qualify, his 99.4 QBR against Ohio would have been the highest single game for any quarterback in the country this season. That said, this is a Purdue program that is 2-19 away from West Lafayette and 3-34 against Power 5 schools and Notre Dame since 2013. Purdue is on the right path, and could be a factor in the Big Ten West as soon as next year. You win this one Boilers, I'll buy in that you are a bowl team already.
MISSOURI 35, PURDUE 34
Army Black Knights (2-0) at #8 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0, 1-1)
4:30 - Columbus, OH - FOX
Assuming Urban Meyer still has a job on Saturday, which, listening to some of the fan base sounds like they'd prefer not, he has to get his team to bounce back against a tricky team to prep for on regular rest. Jeff Monken honed his triple option skills under Paul Johnson for 13 seasons from 1997-2009, as his running backs coach at three stops. When he got his shot, as head coach at Georgia Southern, he took them to three FCS Final Fours in his first three years. Then in his only downish year, a 7-4 season in 2013, went into the Swamp and upset Florida. All of that success got him the head job at...Army. The once great program had only one winning season since 1996, and was 5-19 over the previous two years when he took over. The one thing you'll get at a program like Army though is time. After a 6-18 start to his career at West Point, he went 8-5 in 2016, won the Heart of Dallas Bowl, and more importantly, ended a 14 year losing streak to Navy, easily the longest in series history for either side. While the triple option is tough to prepare for, Ohio State is well equipped to do it. Army has no designs on doing what Indiana and Oklahoma did, which is spread the Buckeyes out and pick them apart in pass coverage. The Buckeye linebackers are better against the run than in coverage, and that defensive line is talented enough to neutralize the cut block schemes on their own. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nick Bosa play quite a bit along side both Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis, with his hand off the ground. They can do that without a fear of him getting exploited in pass coverage here. Ahmad Bradshaw is in his third year starting, and even as triple option quarterbacks go, he is low on the pass threat totem pole. This year, through 2 games, he's 2-10 for 17 yards. However, he's averaging 162 ypg on the ground, so he's really just a running back lining up back there, 5th in the nation in ypg. This ain't Fordham or Buffalo though, and Army doesn't have the linemen Georgia Tech does. Ohio State still has their issues defensively, this just isn't the team to exploit them.
OHIO STATE 42, ARMY 16
Georgia State Panthers (0-1) at #5 Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0)
7:30 - State College, PA - BTN
Is this the week we totally and completely jumped the shark on primetime BTN games? I kind of hope Penn State does a blue out, or something that makes it look awful so we never have to deal with this again. Georgia State started their football program in FCS in 2010, and after a 7-23 record in three years, including 1-10 in their final year, made the jump to FBS, where they promptly lost 29 of their first 32 games, beating an FCS school, New Mexico State and Ball State. A 4 game winning streak to somehow get bowl eligible in 2015 has been followed by a 3-11 stretch which includes 1-1 against FCS programs. The Massey composite computer rankings have Georgia State as the 5th worst team in the FBS, which would also put them behind 31 FCS teams, and possibly only because they have only played one game, granted it was a 17-10 loss to Tennessee State. Penn State was looking forward to thumping their cross state rivals after what happened last year, and while it was a game never in doubt, it wasn't exactly a crisp performance, particularly from the offensive line, which was unable to protect McSorley against what was supposedly a subpar Pitt front seven. Considering how good they looked against Akron, they aren't in need of any sort of "get right" game so really all there is to do is stay healthy and be ready for a dangerous road game at Iowa next weekend. The last road night game Penn State won against anyone not named Rutgers was in Kinnick back in 2012.
PENN STATE 47, GEORGIA STATE 0
Bowling Green Falcons (0-2) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-1)
7:30 - Evanston, IL - BTN
Another year, another slow start for Northwestern. Last year Northwestern lost to a MAC team and an FCS team in getting off to an 0-2 start that they couldn't fully recover from beyond a mid-tier bowl. In 2014 they opened with a MAC loss and a loss to a mediocre Cal team at home. So this makes it 3 of 4 years with a slow start out of the gates. At least they were able to squeeze out that win against a horrible Nevada team. This is an absolute must win if Northwestern wants to keep bowl hopes alive. And it's not even the mid point of September. But to follow this you have @Wisconsin, Penn State, @Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State @Nebraska, before a lighter three game stretch to finish. Bowling Green looked to have things figured out under Mike Jenks. The first year coach started 1-8, with the lone win being by 1 point over FCS North Dakota. But the Falcons rolled to a three game winning streak to close, finally figuring out his spread power run scheme, and using it to tally over 300 ypg on the ground. They produced no offense in their opener against Michigan State, but maybe the Spartans had their defense rolling again. Unfortunately they followed that with a 35-27 loss to unranked FCS South Dakota. It's clear this program has a long way to go. The Wildcats defense has looked abysmal thus far, but Falcons quarterback James Morgan is struggling mightily with his accuracy right now. His 14.4 Total QBR is 6th worst in the FBS, and worst among any quarterback who has thrown at least 50 passes. We can keep piling on. His 37.5% completion rate is worst among all qualified FBS quarterbacks, and his 5.7 ypa is 3rd worst among quarterbacks who have thrown as many passes. If Northwestern can't get right here, they never will.
NORTHWESTERN 38, BOWLING GREEN 14
***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***
Air Force Falcons (1-0) at #7 Michigan Wolverines (2-0)
NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - BTN
Shows you what kind of week this is in the conference, when this is your game of the week. Air Force put up as dominating a performance as you'll see against VMI in Week 1, and then was off last week. That's very little to go on. VMI is awful, they followed that by losing to Division II Catawba. But the stats from that opener are eye popping, even for a 62-0 game. Air Force outgained VMI 647-95, and had more first down 32-6. VMI used three quarterbacks, and one, Duncan Hodges managed to go 5-10...for 3 yards. I didn't even think 0.6 ypc was possible with 5 completions, thne you see their leading receiver had 4 catches for 16 yards, yet his long catch was for 17 yards, meaning his other 3 catches totaled negative yardage. As shaky as Wilton Speight as looked, I think he'll fare a little better. The coaches seem confident in him, at least publicly, but the fans are turning, and rightfully so. He's barely completing 50% of his passes, worst among starters in the conference, and his 39.3 Total QBR is ahead of only Klye Bolin and Chayce Crouch. His weapons have been better than expected, particularly a pair of Hoke recruits that are finally showing they have no intention of being passed over by Harbaugh's flashy classes, Ty Isaac and Grant Perry. Isaac has put forth his second and third career 100 yard games in the first two, and the only previous one was against UNLV where he did most of his work on a singular 76 yard run. He's 6th in the Big Ten in rushing, but splitting carries. His 8.0 ypc is behind only Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkly and Ty Johnson. Perry has had arguably the best two games of his career, after being suspending during the offseason for a felony conviction stemming from an arrest last fall. Harbaugh gave him another chance, and so far he's earning his playing time. Much like Ohio State against Army, Michigan is well equipped to shut down a triple option attack with a dominant front four. Air Force is a bit more of a passing threat than Army is, and has shown in the past against Power 5 teams, they'll pass even more than they necessarily feel comfortable doing, simply because they have to. But it won't be enough to have any sort of consistent attack. They will challenge Speight at times, and they may not pass enough to give the Michigan secondary a chance to assist with a score, but I don't think Wolverine fans need to sweat it out as much as they did last time Air Force visited.
MICHIGAN 38, AIR FORCE 17
