2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[NickSmith4Three]

Michigan is looking at possibly needing to make up 6 games.  Who knows how the rest of this season plays out with other teams and possible postponements.  It will be interesting to see how the regular season champion is determined if they are unable to make up enough games.

[bayareabadger]

I'm talking about under 2 minutes with a lead
I'd practice it enough that it wouldn't seem forced.
hey, if a kid gets a great look at a 15 footer because the offense is busting the box, go ahead and take it.  But it better be uncontested and the kid better have his feet set.

It’s possibly my UW background. Their clock grinding stuff is about control and getting up a shot.

A pick and pop or pick and roll and replace generate good looks. I think at times, a slightly tough 3 can be a pretty make-able shot depending on the shooter. The worry with post ups or drives is folks can get handsy and that over gets overlooked when you’re up. Granted, my school is low on good drivers every year and worry the ball can be driven out of the post. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

@bwarbiany , I have a question for you.  This isn't a knock on PU, it is a data-driven question:

As an Ohio State fan I haven't seen much of PU and what I did see was in their two wins over tOSU so I'm surprised that they aren't higher in the standings.  They sure looked better than my team.  Here is the thing I noticed though:  Purdue's two wins over Ohio State are BU FAR their best two wins in the league.  The Boilermakers are:

• 0-1 against M
• 0-1 against IL
• 0-1 against Iowa
• 0-1 against Rutgers

Overall they are 2-4 against the B1G's .500 teams with the two wins over tOSU and the four losses listed above.  So, as I see it, there are three main possibilities:

• Match-up issues:  Purdue just matches up really well against tOSU and/or tOSU just matches up really poorly against PU.  Ie, Purdue really isn't THAT good and tOSU really isn't THAT bad it is just a match-up issue specific to those two teams. 
• Random chance:  Maybe Purdue just happened to have great games both times out against tOSU and/or maybe tOSU just happened to have awful games both times out against PU.  Ie, tOSU is actually the better team as evidenced by their better record in the B1G (overall, vs .500+, and vs top-11). 
• Purdue is actually a better team than Ohio State but has had a relatively difficult schedule (11 of 12 B1G games against the top-11 teams) and has been a tad unlucky in some of those losses. 

FWIW, I think it is probably mostly a mix of #1 and #2:  Ohio State had difficulty with PU's size inside (#1) and both games were close (#2).  In the game in West Lafayette the Boilermakers led the entire second half and at one point led by 14 but it was a six point game under 3 minutes and that is pretty much anybody's game.  The game in Columbus was even closer with Ohio State leading for most of the game and holding a lead with under a minute to play before losing by just two points. 

I'm curious your thoughts because if Purdue is as good as their wins over Ohio State indicate then they should finish well since there are no games remaining against teams with better records and only one game against a team that is close (vsUW).  OTOH, if you ignore the two wins over tOSU, the Boilermakers do NOT look like a good team.  Ignoring those they are 0-4 against .500+ and only 4-5 against the top-11. 

Fair question. I don't think Purdue is "better" than OSU, but rather that it's not the best matchup--and I believe in both games OSU was down a few players? 

Regarding point #3, the truth is that the Purdue schedule was HEAVILY front-loaded, and IMHO they acquitted themselves well. 

If you look at KenPom (#24) and Sagarin (#21), I think it's probably a fair assessment of where this team is. But 5 conference teams are in the top 11... And Purdue is not at that level.

I think if we broke down tiers, I might go with something like:

• Michigan, Illinois, Iowa
• Ohio State, Wisconsin
• Purdue, Rutgers
• Indiana, Maryland

Purdue's a good team and should do well the rest of the way, but I think it was really fortuitous in both matchup with OSU and *when* that matchup occurred with OSU having players out or IIRC just returned from being out. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

It’s possibly my UW background. Their clock grinding stuff is about control and getting up a shot.

A pick and pop or pick and roll and replace generate good looks. I think at times, a slightly tough 3 can be a pretty make-able shot depending on the shooter. The worry with post ups or drives is folks can get handsy and that over gets overlooked when you’re up. Granted, my school is low on good drivers every year and worry the ball can be driven out of the post. 

Obviously depends on the shooter. I'd be complaining less if Sasha got an open look rather than Ivey, even though he was the one that won the OSU game with his late 3-pointers.

And agreed regarding driving. Purdue typically hasn't had a "break down the opponent off the dribble" guy--especially when we have monsters clogging up the paint. Oddly Ivey is one of those "driving" guys.

But I look at this way... Tre doesn't have the highest percentage compared to past Purdue bigs, but is making over 52% of his shots. Ivey is making under 48% from 2, and under 19% from 3. 

While you sometimes look at things from an "expected points" strategy over the course of a game, i.e. a 60% post player is taking the same value shot as a 40% 3 point shooter, I think when you get into that end-of-game-with-a-lead scenario that 60% post option is much more important to win probability. Because possessions are limited and getting ANYTHING out of it--even going 50% on shooting two free throws--is critical. 

The big thing is to avoid an empty possession, and so you want your highest-probability shots, not your highest expected points shots. 

[FearlessF]

I just like the idea of having the option of drawing contact and getting to the foul line when up and in the bonus.

IMO, maybe from watching too much Big East Basketball back in the 80's, ya gotta recruit kids that can drive the lane, beat someone off the dribble

[FearlessF]

Michigan is looking at possibly needing to make up 6 games.  Who knows how the rest of this season plays out with other teams and possible postponements.  It will be interesting to see how the regular season champion is determined if they are unable to make up enough games.

Nebraska really doesn't matter, but.... they've only played 5 conference games and postponed 6.

[Abba]

Michigan is looking at possibly needing to make up 6 games.  Who knows how the rest of this season plays out with other teams and possible postponements.  It will be interesting to see how the regular season champion is determined if they are unable to make up enough games.

I assume that Ohio State will just be declared the champion again right?

[medinabuckeye1]

Fair question. I don't think Purdue is "better" than OSU, but rather that it's not the best matchup--and I believe in both games OSU was down a few players?

Regarding point #3, the truth is that the Purdue schedule was HEAVILY front-loaded, and IMHO they acquitted themselves well.

If you look at KenPom (#24) and Sagarin (#21), I think it's probably a fair assessment of where this team is. But 5 conference teams are in the top 11... And Purdue is not at that level.

I think if we broke down tiers, I might go with something like:

• Michigan, Illinois, Iowa
• Ohio State, Wisconsin
• Purdue, Rutgers
• Indiana, Maryland

Purdue's a good team and should do well the rest of the way, but I think it was really fortuitous in both matchup with OSU and *when* that matchup occurred with OSU having players out or IIRC just returned from being out.

FWIW, here is how I am looking at it:

Note that Purdue is 2-4 against the .500+ teams with their only two wins coming against Ohio State while Ohio State is 4-2 with their only two losses coming against Purdue.  That gives me pause in analyzing both of those teams.  If those results are largely due to specific match-up issues or players out or anything else that is not expected to replicate then:

• Purdue looks pretty weak at 0-4 against .500+ teams and 
• Ohio State looks great at 4-0 against .500+ teams.  

I'll add that Ohio State's loss to Northwestern is the biggest outlier of the year so far in the league.  I'm not saying that just as an OSU homer trying to write off a loss.  I'm looking at the results and the other four losses to bottom-3 teams (NU, MSU, UNL) were:

• by .500 Rutgers (@MSU) - and it is at least arguable that this happened when MSU was a MUCH better team
• by sub .500 Indiana (vs NU)
• by each other (MSU @ NU and UNL vs MSU)

Ohio State's loss at NU is very different.  The Buckeyes have a MUCH better overall record than RU, IU, MSU, and UNL.  Also those four teams have abysmal records against the .500+ teams and sub .500 records against the top-11 while the Buckeyes are 4-2 against the .500+ teams and 5-3 against the top-11.  This is pretty much the dictionary definition of an outlier.  

Vis-a-vis Purdue:
This is what the Boilermakers have left:

• One against .500+ (vsUW)
• Four against the top-11 (vsUW, vsIU, @MN, @PSU) 
• Three games against the bottom-3 (vsNU, vsMSU, @UNL).  

That is a LOT lighter than what they have been through:

• Six against .500+ (vsM, @IL, @IA, 2xtOSU, @RU)
• 11 against the top-11 (vsM, @IL, @IA, 2xtOSU, @RU, @IU, vsMN, 2xUMD, vsPSU)
• One against the bottom-3 (@MSU)

Vis-a-vis Ohio State:
This is what the Buckeyes have left:

• Four against .500+ (vsM, vsIL, 2xIA)
• Seven against the top-11 (vsM, vsIL, 2xIA, vsIU, @UMD, @PSU)
• One against the bottom-3 (@MSU)

Compared to what they have been through:

• Six against .500+ (@IL, @UW, 2xPU, 2xRU)
• Eight against the top-11 (@IL, @UW, 2xPU, 2xRU, @MN, vsPSU)
• Four against the bottom-3 (2xNU, vsMSU, vsUNL)

Right now a LOT of how I feel about both PU and tOSU depends on whether I view those PU>tOSU games as non-replicable outliers (for whatever reasons) or as normal results.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Note that Purdue is 2-4 against the .500+ teams with their only two wins coming against Ohio State while Ohio State is 4-2 with their only two losses coming against Purdue.  That gives me pause in analyzing both of those teams.  If those results are largely due to specific match-up issues or players out or anything else that is not expected to replicate then:

• Purdue looks pretty weak at 0-4 against .500+ teams and
• Ohio State looks great at 4-0 against .500+ teams. 

Right now a LOT of how I feel about both PU and tOSU depends on whether I view those PU>tOSU games as non-replicable outliers (for whatever reasons) or as normal results. 

Where I think you go wrong is in removing those results when trying to determine how good or bad PU or OSU look.

While there may be specific reasons why that matchup is good or bad for each team, it's true that there are ALWAYS specific teams that are better or worse matchups for any given team. You have to expect that. 

It's like the old "well if you take the big plays away, that offense looked pretty pedestrian" canard... 

Purdue's a decent team. Not a great team. Not a team that should be in contention for the league crown. But solidly top half of the B1G sort of team. 

Ohio State is IMHO a better team than Purdue, despite the double H2H result. They may be non-replicable outliers, or they could [due to matchup] be replicable outliers. 

Either way, Purdue to me looks like a team that I wouldn't be shocked to see them as 2-4 against the >.500 teams in the conference, and Ohio State is a team that I'm not shocked to see as 4-2 against the >.500 teams in the conference, regardless of which team those wins and losses come from. 

Right now OSU is 1 game ahead in the B1G standings with a more difficult schedule left to play. But I think they're a stronger team, so I expect they'll probably finish the regular season still ahead in the B1G standings despite the more difficult remaining schedule.

[medinabuckeye1]

Where I think you go wrong is in removing those results when trying to determine how good or bad PU or OSU look.

Just to clarify, I threw that out there as an "if those results were outliers" thing, it isn't a deeply held belief.  

While there may be specific reasons why that matchup is good or bad for each team, it's true that there are ALWAYS specific teams that are better or worse matchups for any given team. You have to expect that.

Fair point.  

It's like the old "well if you take the big plays away, that offense looked pretty pedestrian" canard...

Purdue's a decent team. Not a great team. Not a team that should be in contention for the league crown. But solidly top half of the B1G sort of team.

I agree on both of those.  If your offense is built on big plays then it doesn't matter they they aren't very good in the rest of their plays so long as they achieve enough of those.  

Honestly, I came here asking this because as an Ohio State fan who hasn't seen much of Purdue other than them twice beating my team which is fourth in the standings and only 1/2 game out of second and owns wins over #2 and #5 (both on the road) I was internally thinking of Purdue as MUCH better than 7-5.  Based on what I've seen (mostly just them beating tOSU twice) I more or less expected them to be 9-3 or better.  They aren't so I came here basically wondering if that was because they aren't actually as good as they looked vs tOSU or because they aren't actually as bad as they have performed in their other 10 games (5-5, 0-4 against .500+).  

Ohio State is IMHO a better team than Purdue, despite the double H2H result. They may be non-replicable outliers, or they could [due to matchup] be replicable outliers.

Well, we'll see.  Honestly, I'm still not sure that the Buckeyes are all that good.  The loss to Northwestern troubles me.  None of the other good teams have done that.  The close win at home over PSU troubles me a bit.  OTOH, the road wins over IL and UW are obviously good so . . . we'll see.  

Either way, Purdue to me looks like a team that I wouldn't be shocked to see them as 2-4 against the >.500 teams in the conference, and Ohio State is a team that I'm not shocked to see as 4-2 against the >.500 teams in the conference, regardless of which team those wins and losses come from.

I get where you are coming from here.  Assume the following for a minute:

• Ohio State had held on to their late lead in Columbus over PU and won that game, and
• Purdue had mounted a comeback in Champaign and beaten Illinois, and
• Illinois had finished their comeback against Ohio State and beaten the Buckeyes in Champaign

If those three things had happened every team would have the same record that they have now but this wouldn't have been a question.  tOSU and PU would be 1-1 against each other and PU would be 1-3 against the rest of the .500+ while tOSU was 3-1 against the rest of the .500+.  

It is only a question for me right now because of the oddity of Purdue's ONLY .500+ wins and tOSU's ONLY .500+ losses coming against each other.  That makes me wonder . . .

Right now OSU is 1 game ahead in the B1G standings with a more difficult schedule left to play. But I think they're a stronger team, so I expect they'll probably finish the regular season still ahead in the B1G standings despite the more difficult remaining schedule.

We'll see.  Purdue has played a tough schedule so far (6x .500+ and 11x top-11) but Ohio State's hasn't been much easier (6x .500+ and 8x top-11).  The difference is that Ohio State's overall schedule looks to be tougher because what the Buckeyes have left is a lot tougher (4x .500+ and 7x top-11 vs 1x .500+ and 4x top-11).  

I definitely wouldn't count Purdue out of the race for the top-4 slots.  They are in sixth now but I think that their remaining schedule is easier than #2-5 and they are only one game behind #4/5 and 1.5 games behind #2/3 so it could definitely happen.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Honestly, I came here asking this because as an Ohio State fan who hasn't seen much of Purdue other than them twice beating my team which is fourth in the standings and only 1/2 game out of second and owns wins over #2 and #5 (both on the road) I was internally thinking of Purdue as MUCH better than 7-5.  Based on what I've seen (mostly just them beating tOSU twice) I more or less expected them to be 9-3 or better.  They aren't so I came here basically wondering if that was because they aren't actually as good as they looked vs tOSU or because they aren't actually as bad as they have performed in their other 10 games (5-5, 0-4 against .500+). 

It's a weird year for Purdue. Fans came into this season thinking that this was the rebuilding year to get us to 21-22 and 22-23. 

Purdue is the youngest team in the Big Ten.

• There are no seniors on this team. That would have been Matt Haarms and Nojel Eastern, who both transferred. 
• You have true juniors Trevion Williams, and Eric Hunter, and RS juniors Aaron Wheeler and Sasha Stefanovich. Wheeler isn't really a starter at this point.  
• The only sophomore getting minutes on the team is Isaiah Thompson, who I've previously lamented as an OK reserve, but doesn't have the size and strength to be a good PG at the B1G level at this point. There is another RS Soph big, Emmanuel Dowuona, but he has been out all season with "breathing problems" so hasn't seen a single minute on the court.  
• Then you have the freshmen. RS Fresh Mason Gillis (starts at the 4), RS Fresh Brandon Newman (starts at one guard spot), Zach Edey (backup to Trevion), Jaden Ivey, and Ethan Morton.

We're starting two freshmen and two others are getting VERY solid rotation minutes.

This being a COVID season, didn't have anything near the same level of prep that a typical season would get. 

Eric Hunter and Jaden Ivey both suffered foot/ankle injuries that took them out of commission at the beginning of the season, with both missing time. Ethan Morton had mono to start the season and didn't have the same level of prep time as the rest of the team.

What does it mean, when you put it all together? This is a very talented team, that is also very inexperienced and streaky. They're growing up before our eyes, and they're a MUCH different team in February than they were in November/December. 

Long story short? Don't try too hard to analyze this Purdue team. Especially if you haven't watched much more than two games. Because they're not experienced and cohesive enough to do what they "should" do on a consistent basis. It's more of a rollercoaster. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Tonight's lineup:

• #7, tied for 4th/5th B1G 8-4/14-4 Ohio State at #8, 3rd B1G 7-3/13-4 Iowa, 7pm ESPN
• tied for 8/9 B1G 4-6/11/6 Minnesota at 7th B1G 6-6/10-6 Rutgers, 9pm FS1

Iowa is favored by 5.5 over the visiting Buckeyes but the Hawkeyes are on a VERY short turnaround after a tough game against Michigan State Tuesday night.  This could present a fortuitous opportunity for the Buckeyes.  Also the Buckeyes are on a bit of a tear having won three straight and six of seven while Iowa may be in a bit of a slump having lost two of their last three and in the win they struggled mightily with an MSU team that tOSU defeated handily and Rutgers absolutely annihilated.  It is difficult to tell how much of that is MSU improving but it isn't a good sign for Iowa.  

If Ohio State wins:

• The Buckeyes would improve to 9-4 and alone in 3rd place with the most wins in the league (albeit, more losses than first and second place Michigan and Illinois).  
• Iowa would fall to 7-4 and 5th place 1/2 game behind fourth place UW and 1/2 game ahead of sixth place Purdue.  

If Iowa wins:

• Iowa would move into a tie with IL for 2nd/3rd and a tie with M, IL, tOSU, and UW for most wins in the B1G.  
• Ohio State would fall to 8-5 and 5th place 1/2 game behind fourth place UW and 1/2 game ahead of sixth place Purdue.  

Rutgers is favored by 6 over the visiting Gophers.  The Scarlet Knights have won three straight including a road win in Bloomington and an absolute whipping of MSU.  Minnesota has lost two straight and four out of five but none of the losses were particularly bad (@M, @IA, vsUMD, @PU).  

If Minnesota wins:

• The Gophers improve to 5-6 and alone in 8th place barely behind seventh place 6-7 Rutgers and 1/2 game ahead of ninth place 4-6 Indiana.  
• Rutgers would fall to 6-7 and alone in 7th place 1.5 games behind sixth place PU and barely ahead of MN.  

If Rutgers wins:

• The Scarlet Knights would go above .500 in the B1G for the first time since early January and would still be in seventh place but only 1/2 game behind sixth place Purdue and 2.5 games ahead of eighth place Indiana.  
• Minnesota would fall to 4-7 and tied with UMD for 9th/10th 1/2 game behind eighth place Indiana and 1/2 game ahead of 11th place PSU.  

NCAA seeds (per worldwide leader):

• #2 Ohio 
• #3 Iowa
• #7 Rutgers
• #8 Minnesota

Thus, the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes are playing for high-end seed positioning while the Scarlet Knights and Gophers are both pretty close to the bubble so the loser probably drops into bubble territory.  

[MaximumSam]

No idea how OSU tries to guard Garza tonight.  Poorly, I'd imagine.

[medinabuckeye1]

Does the B1G have any "locks" yet?  

I don't think so, but that may depend on how many more games the Wolverines postpone and whether or not any of their postponed games get rescheduled.  

First let me reiterate as I do every year around this time that I use a VERY literal definition of the word "lock".  I know that at least @ELA is on board with me in this, not sure about everybody else.  My working definition of "lock" is this:

"A lock is a team that could lose all of their remaining regular season games then get the worst possible opponent in their league tournament opener and lose that too and they would STILL be almost certain to get in to the NCAA tournament."  

Michigan just might be a lock already.  They are currently 8-1/13-1.  They were originally supposed to play 20 B1G games.  If they played (and lost) all of them they would finish the regular season just 8-12/13-12 and if they went on to lose their B1G Tournament opener they would be only 8-13/13-13.  Additionally, they would be on a 12 game losing streak and would only have two wins after January 12.  The committee dropped "last 10" from their official considerations but you can't convince me that a finish THAT awful wouldn't be taken into consideration.  

That said, none of Michigan's "postponed" games have been rescheduled and we really don't know how aggressive the league is going to be about getting those games played.  Furthermore, I saw some chatter that Michigan's game against Illinois (2/11) is in danger of being postponed as well.  If they don't play Illinois and don't make up any of the postponements then they will only end up playing 15 league games (or less if there are further cancellations either by them or by opponents) in which case their worst case scenario would be 8-8/13-8 even with a loss in the league tournament opener.  That just might get them in.  

Illinois, Ohio State, and Wisconsin each also have eight B1G wins.  They aren't locks yet (per my above definition) but they are getting close.  IMHO, the league is so strong this year that .500 might get a team in and anything over that (including BTT) would probably be a lock so my working theory is that any team that gets to 11 B1G wins is a lock because their worst case scenario even with all games played and a BTT loss would be 11-10 in league games.  Iowa and Purdue are right behind that with seven wins each.