2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G Regular Season Championship Race and BTT seeding races update:

Illinois stayed alive in the B1G Championship race by winning at Michigan but they can only win the title if they beat Ohio State in Columbus this weekend AND the Wolverines get swept by the Spartans.  Any one of those three results are reasonably likely, the combination of all three is a remote possibility.  

For each team I'll list their current record and what they have left, then below that I'll list their possible outcomes:

13-2 Michigan, vs MSU, @MSU:

• 15-2:  League Champion and BTT #1
• 14-3:  League Champion and BTT #1
• 13-4:  Second place and BTT #2 unless tOSU beats ILL

15-4 Illinois, @tOSU:

• 16-4:  League Champion and BTT #1 if MSU sweeps M, otherwise second place and BTT #2
• 15-5:  BTT #2

12-6 Iowa, vs UNL, vs UW:

• 14-6:  BTT #3
• 13-7:  BTT #3 if PU and tOSU both lose.  BTT #4 if either PU or tOSU lose.  BTT #5 if both PU and tOSU win.  
• 12-8:  BTT #4 if tOSU loses.  BTT #5 if tOSU wins.  

12-6 Purdue, vs IU:

• 13-6:  BTT #3 if IA loses at least once.  BTT #4 if IA wins out.  
• 12-7:  BTT #3 if IA and tOSU lose out.  BTT #4 if either IA or tOSU loses out.  BTT #5 is neither IA nor tOSU loses out.  

12-7 Ohio State, vs IL:

• 13-7:  BTT #3 if IA and PU lose at least once each.  BTT #4 if either IA or PU loses at least once.  BTT #5 if both PU and IA win out.  
• 12-8:  BTT #4 if IA loses out.  BTT #5 if IA wins at least once.  

10-9 Wisconsin, @ IA:

• 11-9:  BTT #6
• 10-10:  * see below

9-10 Maryland, vs PSU:

• 10-10:  * see below
• 9-11:  * see below

9-10 Rutgers, @MN:

• 10-10:  * see below
• 9-11:  * see below

8-10 Michigan State, @M, vsM:

• 10-10:  * see below
• 9-11:  * see below
• 8-12:  BTT #9 if PU beats IU.  BTT #10 if IU beats PU.  

7-11 Indiana, @PU:

• 8-11:  BTT #10 if MSU gets swept by M.  BTT #11 if MSU beats M at least once.  
• 7-12:  BTT #11

6-12 Penn State, @UMD:

• 7-12:  BTT #12
• 6-13:  BTT #12 if RU beats MN.  BTT #13 if MN beats RU.  

6-13 Minnesota, vsRU:

• 7-13:  BTT #11 if UMD beats PSU.  BTT #12 if PSU beats UMD.  
• 6-14:  BTT #12 if UNL beats NU.  BTT #13 if NU beats UNL.  

5-13 Northwestern, vs UNL:

• 6-13:  BTT #12 if RU beats MN.  BTT #13 if MN beats RU.  
• 5-14:  BTT #14 if UNL beats IA.  BTT #13 if IA beats UNL.  

3-14 Nebraska, @ IA, @NU:

• 5-14:  BTT #13
• 4-15:  BTT #14
• 3-16:  BTT #14

The group closest to .500 is the most complex because up to four teams could mathematically finish 10-10 (UW with a loss @IA, UMD with a win vs PSU, RU with a win @MN, and MSU with a sweep of M).  Three of them could finish 9-11 (UMD with a loss vs PSU, RU with a loss @MN, and MSU if they split with M).  

Here is how that would all the 10-10 ties would break down:

• 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and UMD:  Maryland wins based on their superior record against IL.  
• 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and RU:  Wisconsin wins, 1-0 H2H.  
• 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and MSU:  Wisconsin wins, 1-0 H2H.  
• 10-10 tie for 6th/7th/8th between UW, UMD, and RU:  UW is 2-1 H2H, UMD is 2-2, RU is 1-2.  
• 10-10 tie for 6th/7th/8th between UW, RU, and MSU:  UW is 2-0 H2H, MSU is 1-2 H2H, RU is 1-2 H2H.  UW gets the #6 seed.  Rutgers gets the #7 seed based on their superior record against IL if IL beats tOSU.  If tOSU beats IL then MSU gets the #7 based on their superior record against M.  
• 10-10 tie for 6/7/8 between UW, UMD, and MSU:  UMD is 2-1 H2H, UW is 2-1 H2H, MSU is 0-2 H2H.  UMD gets the #6 seed based on their superior record against IL, UW gets the #7, MSU gets the #8.  
• 10-10 tie for 6/7/8/9 between UW, UMD, RU, and MSU:  UW is 3-1 H2H, UMD is 3-2 H2H, RU is 2-3 H2H, MSU is 1-3 H2H. Thus #6 UW, #7 UMD, #8 RU, #9 MSU.  
• 10-10 tie for 7/8/9 between UMD, RU, and MSU:  UMD is 2-1 H2H, RU is 2-2 H2H, MSU is 1-2 H2H, 
• 10-10 tie for 7/8 between UMD and RU:  Rutgers wins based on their superior record against PU.  
• 10-10 tie for 7/8 between UMD and MSU:  Maryland wins based on H2H (1-0).  
• 10-10 tie for 7/8 between RU and MSU:  MSU wins based on their superior record against M.  

I think that is all of them.  

Now for the potential 9-11 ties:

• 9-11 tie for 7/8/9 between UMD, RU, and MSU:  UMD is 2-1 H2H, RU is 2-2 H2H, MSU is 1-2 H2H.  
• 9-11 tie for 8/9 between UMD and RU:  Rutgers wins based on their superior record against PU.  
• 9-11 tie for 8/9 between UMD and MSU:  Maryland wins based on H2H (1-0).  
• 9-11 tie for 8/9 between RU and MSU:  MSU wins based on their superior record against M.  

I think that is all of them.  

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW, if the BTT started today:

• 13-2 Michigan
• 15-4 Illinois
• 12-6 Iowa (wins tie with PU based on H2H)
• 12-6 Purdue
• 12-7 Ohio State
• 10-9 Wisconsin
• 9-10 Rutgers (wins tie with UMD based on record against PU)
• 9-10 Maryland
• 8-10 Michigan State
• 7-11 Indiana
• 6-12 Penn State
• 6-13 Minnesota
• 5-13 Northwestern
• 3-14 Nebraska

Wednesday:

• #11 Penn State vs #14 Nebraska
• #12 Minnesota vs #13 Northwestern

Thursday:

• #5 Ohio State vs MN/NU
• #6 Wisconsin vs PSU/UNL
• #7 Rutgers vs #10 Indiana
• #8 Maryland vs #9 Michigan State

Friday:

• #1 Michigan vs UMD/MSU (potentially a third straight game against the Spartans, yay)
• #2 Illinois vs RU/IU
• #3 Iowa vs UW/PSU/UNL
• #4 Purdue vs tOSU/MN/NU

Saturday:

• M/UMD/MSU vs PU/tOSU/MN/NU
• IL/RU/IU vs IA/UW/PSU/UNL

Sunday:

• M/UMD/MSU/PU/tOSU/MN/NU vs IL/RU/IU/IA/UW/PSU/UNL

I'm not liking that for Ohio State at all.  Their first opponent would either be NU whom they went 1-1 against or MN whom they went 0-1 against.  Then if they won that, their second opponent would be PU whom they went 0-2 against.  If they managed to win both of those their next opponent would likely be Michigan.  

[bayareabadger]

If OSU has trouble with Minnesota at this point, oh no. That Minnesota team is like penicillin for the swoons 

[medinabuckeye1]

If OSU has trouble with Minnesota at this point, oh no. That Minnesota team is like penicillin for the swoons

Minnesota is also just plain weird.  They are the only team in the whole league that actually has a better record against the .500+ B1G teams than they do overall:

• 4-6 The Gophers are .400 against the .500+ teams
• 2-7 The Gophers are .222 against the sub .500 teams

In fact the Gophers are better against the .500+ teams than they are against the worst two teams in the league (1-2 or .333 against NU and UNL).  That said they do appear to be collapsing right now.  Back on February 11 they beat the Boilermakers (a great quality win) and since then they have lost six straight including five to teams behind Purdue in the standings and back-to-back losses to NU and UNL.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Weird stylistic nit to pick...

I don't like the phrases "wins out" or "loses out" when a team only has one game remaining... Something about it implies "losing every remaining game" in the sense that there are multiple. I realize winning out or losing out when there is only one game remaining still makes sense, but it's not how I'd use the phrase when it's a single event. 

[FearlessF]

LINCOLN — The Big Ten announced Thursday morning it will allow up to 8,000 fans per game at its men's basketball tournament and 2,500 fans at its women's tournament next week in Indianapolis.

[MaximumSam]

Villanova PG Collin Gillespie out for season with a torn MCL. Man that sucks.

[medinabuckeye1]

Weird stylistic nit to pick...

I don't like the phrases "wins out" or "loses out" when a team only has one game remaining... Something about it implies "losing every remaining game" in the sense that there are multiple. I realize winning out or losing out when there is only one game remaining still makes sense, but it's not how I'd use the phrase when it's a single event.

I think I only did that where I was referring to two teams and one of them has two games remaining.  I agree generally but it was basically just to save me some typing where two teams had a combined three games remaining so I said, for example, "if PU and IA both win out" meaning if PU wins their one remaining game and Iowa wins their two remaining games.  

After tonight I will update and all 14 teams will have exactly one game remaining so there will be no need for "win out" or "lose out" or other references such as "win at least one" and "lose at least one", it will simply be based on win/lose the one remaining game.  

Ten of the 14 teams have only two possibilities now (Ie, Illinois finishes 16-4 if they beat Ohio State this weekend and 15-5 if they lose to Ohio State this weekend.  The four teams playing tonight (M, MSU, IA, UNL) each have three possible final records and after tonight they will each be reduced to two with the current worst eliminated for the winners and the current best eliminated for the losers.  

[ELA]

9-2 run for UM to end the half after the inexplicable flagrant foul on Aaron Henry, for having the audacity to not control his elbows while getting fouled while trying to make a layup

[MarqHusker]

LINCOLN — The Big Ten announced Thursday morning it will allow up to 8,000 fans per game at its men's basketball tournament and 2,500 fans at its women's tournament next week in Indianapolis.

I won't try to attend this but I will be looking to score some tickets for a round at Hinkle. 

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G Regular Season Championship Race and BTT seeding races update:

Illinois stayed alive in the B1G Championship race by winning at Michigan but they can only win the title if they beat Ohio State in Columbus this weekend AND the Wolverines get swept by the Spartans.  Any one of those three results are reasonably likely, the combination of all three is a remote possibility. 

For each team I'll list their current record and what they have left, then below that I'll list their possible outcomes:

13-2 Michigan, @MSU:

• 15-2:  League Champion and BTT #1
• 14-3:  League Champion and BTT #1

15-4 Illinois, @tOSU:

• 16-4:  BTT #2
• 15-5:  BTT #2

12-6 Iowa, vs UW:

• 14-6:  BTT #3
• 13-7:  BTT #3 if PU and tOSU both lose.  BTT #4 if either PU or tOSU lose.  BTT #5 if both PU and tOSU win.

12-6 Purdue, vs IU:

• 13-6:  BTT #3 if IA loses.  BTT #4 if IA wins. 
• 12-7:  BTT #3 if IA and tOSU lose.  BTT #4 if either IA or tOSU lose.  BTT #5 is neither IA nor tOSU loses. 

12-7 Ohio State, vs IL:

• 13-7:  BTT #3 if IA and PU lose.  BTT #4 if either IA or PU loses.  BTT #5 if both PU and IA win. 
• 12-8:  BTT #5. 

10-9 Wisconsin, @ IA:

• 11-9:  BTT #6
• 10-10:  * see below

9-10 Maryland, vs PSU:

• 10-10:  * see below
• 9-11:  * see below

9-10 Rutgers, @MN:

• 10-10:  * see below
• 9-11:  * see below

8-10 Michigan State, @M, vsM:

• 9-11:  * see below
• 8-12:  BTT #9 if PU beats IU.  BTT #10 if IU beats PU. 

7-11 Indiana, @PU:

• 8-11:  BTT #10 if MSU gets swept by M.  BTT #11 if MSU beats M at least once. 
• 7-12:  BTT #11

6-12 Penn State, @UMD:

• 7-12:  BTT #12
• 6-13:  BTT #12 if RU beats MN.  BTT #13 if MN beats RU. 

6-13 Minnesota, vsRU:

• 7-13:  BTT #11 if UMD beats PSU.  BTT #12 if PSU beats UMD. 
• 6-14:  BTT #12 if UNL beats NU.  BTT #13 if NU beats UNL. 

5-13 Northwestern, vs UNL:

• 6-13:  BTT #12 if RU beats MN.  BTT #13 if MN beats RU. 
• 5-14:  BTT #14 if UNL beats IA.  BTT #13 if IA beats UNL. 

3-14 Nebraska, @NU:

• 4-15:  BTT #14
• 3-16:  BTT #14

The group closest to .500 is the most complex because up to three teams could mathematically finish 10-10 (UW with a loss @IA, UMD with a win vs PSU, and RU with a win @MN).  Additionally, three teams could finish 9-11 (UMD with a loss vs PSU, RU with a loss @MN, and MSU with a win over M). 

Here is how that would all the 10-10 ties would break down:

• 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and UMD:  Maryland wins based on their superior record against IL. 
• 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and RU:  Wisconsin wins, 1-0 H2H.
• 10-10 tie for 6th/7th/8th between UW, UMD, and RU:  UW is 2-1 H2H, UMD is 2-2, RU is 1-2.
• 10-10 tie for 7/8 between UMD and RU:  Rutgers wins based on their superior record against PU.

I think that is all of them. 

Now for the potential 9-11 ties:

• 9-11 tie for 7/8/9 between UMD, RU, and MSU:  UMD is 2-1 H2H, RU is 2-2 H2H, MSU is 1-2 H2H. 
• 9-11 tie for 8/9 between UMD and RU:  Rutgers wins based on their superior record against PU. 
• 9-11 tie for 8/9 between UMD and MSU:  Maryland wins based on H2H (1-0). 
• 9-11 tie for 8/9 between RU and MSU:  MSU wins based on their superior record against M. 

I think that is all of them.

So after Thursday night's games the #1 (Michigan), #2 (Illinois), and #14 (Nebraska) seeds are clinched but the other 11 are are tbd.

Iowa and Purdue control their own destinies for top-4 seeds and not having to play until Friday.

[MaximumSam]

Watching Purdue Indiana descend into the announcers just killing the refs on every possession

[bayareabadger]

UW is locked into 6th. Likely to finish 2.5 games out of fifth. That fact is annoying to me

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue TCOB today. Now I don't have to work about the IL/OSU or IA/WI games, at least not for the double bye.