Was there a more disappointing team in America this year than Army? It looked like Michigan was the only loss on their schedule, they took UM to OT, but lost, but then proceeded to go 5-8.
So I thought this might be interesting. I knew before the season the SP+ rankings didn't have them super high, which sparked anger from author John Feinstein. That being said, even with that low projection, Army was projected to win nine games. So I wanted to look a little closer at what happened.
It's first worth noting that per SP+, Army played more like a team that would've won 7 and 8 wins the past two years rather than 10 and 11. They lived on a lot of tight games and won a high precent, which sometimes leads to volatility.
So in SP, Army actually improved this year from 84th to 64th, though playing better special teams was a boost (they dropped in other metrics). The maker of that system admitted their extreme fourth down reliance tweaks the numbers because success on every down is redefined when you convert almost every 4th and 2.
But on a larger scale, I think the middle of the schedule got a mite tougher while Army backslid mildly, enough to lose all the close games. Here's Army in 2018 regular season:
Losses: 8-5 ACC, 12-2 Big 12. Wins: 10-4 Buffalo, 8-6 Hawaii,
7-6 EMU, 6-6 Liberty, 6-6 Miami Ohio, 5-7 Air Force, 3-10 Navy, 1-11 SJ State, Two FCS
This year, both other service Academies got really good, so that flipped two wins
Losses: 10-2 Air Force, 10-2 Navy, 9-3 Michigan, 9-5 Hawaii, 8-4 WKU, 6-6 Tulane, 7-5 Ga. State, 5-7 SJ State. Wins: 3-9 Rice, 4-8 UTSA, 1-11 UMass, 2 FCS.
So you lose two wins in the Commander in Chief series and then the mix of mild backslide with the schedule getting slightly beefier you drop from 9 projected wins to 5. 
