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Topic: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

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847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #854 on: April 15, 2019, 04:49:35 PM »
This isn't exactly true. .
Which part of what I wrote I not true? It's all exactly true.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #855 on: April 15, 2019, 04:55:50 PM »


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4247445-concerning-corporate-debt-levels

I think most serious investors understand this and can read a balance sheet to understand if a company has become overly leveraged.  Trading stock for cash and reversing the process of course is something companies have done for some time, usually favoring debt when interest rates are low and more stock when interest rates are higher.

If a company thinks their stock is a better investment than spending it on something else, a stock buyback makes sense, to me anyway.  If they need cash for prudent investments, they can issue more stock and/or borrow as needed.

But there certainly is a concerning level of overall debt in our economy.  

MichiFan87

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #856 on: April 15, 2019, 05:08:29 PM »
The only way more manufacturing production is come back to the US is with mostly / fully automated plants, which are more common in Asia, anyway. Those jobs aren't coming back. The main exceptions are with things like wind turbines that aren't easily transported, along with other large machinery and infrastructure.

And automation of manufacturing jobs is only the beginning. Transportation is under an obvious threat but so are white-collar jobs, even in finance, along with more obvious roles like accounting and administrative work.

Meanwhile, freelance and temporary / contract roles are increasingly replacing regular full-time jobs (it's widely reported that net job growth over the past decade is only from non-permanent jobs).

That said, income inequality is inevitably just get worse, and there's no great solution to it unless/until the 1% becomes so rich that universal basic income actually becomes feasible.
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Mdot21

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #857 on: April 15, 2019, 05:09:55 PM »
Which part of what I wrote I not true? It's all exactly true.
That there are millions of manufacturing jobs that no one wants or aren't qualified for. There aren't. There may be some of that, but it'll never come close to being able to replace the millions of manufacturing jobs lost. It's not like there are 6 million manufacturing jobs out there that people aren't qualified or don't want. Who knows what the real number is, but it's nowhere close to the 6 million manufacturing jobs that were lost from 2000-2010 alone.

SFBadger96

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #858 on: April 15, 2019, 05:15:08 PM »
A company can also be plenty healthy, but also do its very best to keep its wages down and its per-share profits inversely higher. On a case-by-case basis, that is likely a healthy company, but it is one that is part of a system that has kept wages from increasing with productivity. As CD notes about the median wage chart, that's the median--it isn't controlling for the differences in wage growth for various different earning groups. Particularly, the top 5% and top 1% have done extraordinarily well for the last forty years, while earners in the middle have not. And that's just in wages adjusted for inflation. If you look at wages vs. productivity, the middle has done much worse, i.e., productivity per earner has far outpaced wage growth. That, of course, fuels corporate profits (more productivity without more cost equals more profit), which--again--is good for the shareholder (although most Americans own some stock, more than 80% of stock is held by the top 10%).

What this means for our economy and our democracy are interesting questions that are probably not well suited to this forum. :-)

847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #859 on: April 15, 2019, 06:09:27 PM »
That there are millions of manufacturing jobs that no one wants or aren't qualified for. There aren't. There may be some of that, but it'll never come close to being able to replace the millions of manufacturing jobs lost. It's not like there are 6 million manufacturing jobs out there that people aren't qualified or don't want. Who knows what the real number is, but it's nowhere close to the 6 million manufacturing jobs that were lost from 2000-2010 alone.
I didn't say there were millions. I know for a fact that there are ~10K open in this area:
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #860 on: April 15, 2019, 07:34:17 PM »
Notre Dame cathedral is owned by the French government.

Mdot21

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #861 on: April 15, 2019, 11:00:37 PM »


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4247445-concerning-corporate-debt-levels

I think most serious investors understand this and can read a balance sheet to understand if a company has become overly leveraged.  Trading stock for cash and reversing the process of course is something companies have done for some time, usually favoring debt when interest rates are low and more stock when interest rates are higher.

If a company thinks their stock is a better investment than spending it on something else, a stock buyback makes sense, to me anyway.  If they need cash for prudent investments, they can issue more stock and/or borrow as needed.

But there certainly is a concerning level of overall debt in our economy. 
There's $5.5 trillion in corporate debt that is basically "subprime". $1.3 trillion in leveraged loans, $1.2 trillion in junk bonds, and $3+ trillion in "investment grade" corporate debt that is literally just one notch above junk. Compare that amount of "subprime" debt to the 2007 mortgage crisis where the value of those subprime mortgages was about $1.3 trillion.
When there's an economic slowdown and interest rates rise it's going to wipe out a bunch of companies that can't service their debt. Could just trigger a domino effect and send the US into another deep recession.
Borrowing money to buy back stock is just dumb business. Look no further than GE: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4224059-corporate-share-buybacks-looking-dumber-day

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #862 on: April 16, 2019, 12:55:24 AM »
Companies that are fledgling act like animals acting out near-death...they refuse to accept their fate.  While the animals lack the reason to see the writing on the wall, the companies ignore reason and continue, kicking and screaming in vain, to go on, existing.


Imagine a CEO telling the stockholders that all indicators point to the eventual downfall of the company in 10-15 years and that it's the beginning of the end and that everyone should cut 'n run.  Even though that'd be the very best CEO in the world, he'd be fired immediately and the leftover peoples would scratch and claw to try to keep the company afloat long-term.


People who only go by the numbers wind up hoping and praying with only one card left in the deck that can help them.  It'd be silly if it wasn't so repetitive and affect so many lives.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #863 on: April 16, 2019, 07:31:00 AM »
Borrowing money to buy back stock makes sense if  your stock prices goes higher, and or if it stays the same paying a 3% dividend and bonds cost you 2% or less.

GE stock of course tanked, so it did not make sense for them obviously.  

The news coming out of Paris this morning is a bit rosier than it appeared yesterday.

Firefighters say the cathedral's stone construction and main works of art were saved after the 9-hour blaze

utee94

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #864 on: April 16, 2019, 01:52:35 PM »
Yeah that's really good news.

And already lots of $$$ being pledged to the rebuilding by French companies/billionaires, and I'm sure that global support will be quite strong as well. 


MichiFan87

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #865 on: April 16, 2019, 04:15:33 PM »
Since it fits this topic, and I kind of alluded to it earlier, I might as well ask it here.

I think I'm finally able to make the leap and go all in on self-employment. My contract job I moved to DC for recently ended, and fortunately I've been able to connect with several entrepreneurs who are interested in working with me and even seem willing to connect me with others that I could work with. I should be able to get started next week.

So all that said, I want to make sure I don't screw this up, because I know I don't fit in the corporate world, and contract jobs (the easiest ones to get) tend to be at the most bureaucratic places. I know some of you are or at least have been self-employed so I'm open to any and all advice. I know the basics (self-employment tax with the full share of SSI and Medicare taxes, and making quarterly payments), but any other insight would be appreciated.
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #866 on: April 16, 2019, 04:20:27 PM »
Self-employment is a big leap.


My first step would be to hire the best attorney and best accountant you can find. Second would be to establish a relationship with a bank or CU (I prefer the latter).


I imagine this is a silly question.. but have you written a business plan yet?
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #867 on: April 16, 2019, 05:30:29 PM »
Credit unions are great, generally speaking.

 

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