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Topic: 2019 NFL Draft

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #350 on: April 29, 2019, 03:33:13 PM »
"Purdue ends 21-year steak of having at least one player drafted. Final indictment of Darrell Hazell and his recruiting IMHO. Can we fire him again?"

To a degree, I understand this matters, but also does this matter?

I mean, if it weren't for Ryan Russell, the streak would've broken a while ago. For Nebraska, it took Tanner Lee to extend it to this year. I get that it's an indicator of the talent, but if you took what each program did the past few years, plus threw in some coaching changes and the advance rates of attrition these days, I feel like continuing these streaks is pretty much a crapshoot.

I also know more of these have come to an end of late, including Tennessee and Texas. I wonder how much of that stems from the advances in digital scouting. Like finding an interesting wide receiver or developmental defensive end from Augsburg College must be worlds easier than even a few years ago. And that guy replaces, the "well, he's an OK guy from the Big 10" types.
I'll admit that for Purdue, the streak itself was more anomaly than it would be for some other schools. There were more than a few years in those 21 where we were saved by a single player in the late rounds getting drafted.

Still, it kinda points out just how far the program had fallen, recruiting-wise, under Hazell. Consistently last or 2nd-to-last in the conference. Just not good.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #351 on: April 29, 2019, 06:05:02 PM »
https://mgoblog.com/sites/default/files/users/user203573/Screen%20shot%202019-04-26%20at%2010.20.04%20AM.png

https://mgoblog.com/sites/default/files/users/user203573/Screen%20shot%202019-04-26%20at%2010.20.04%20AM.png

Hmm. The drag and drop isn't working for me. But that image combines impressively with the fact that 17/32 first rounders were former 4- and 5-stars. To enrich that group that much requires either (1) outrageous coincidence or (2) significant predictive power for recruiting rankings, depending on your world view.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #352 on: April 29, 2019, 06:41:55 PM »
Hmm. The drag and drop isn't working for me. But that image combines impressively with the fact that 17/32 first rounders were former 4- and 5-stars. To enrich that group that much requires either (1) outrageous coincidence or (2) significant predictive power for recruiting rankings, depending on your world view.
Agreed. And it's always easy to find outliers... Sure, there might be some players who some GM was really high on that gets drafted 2 rounds earlier than predicted via mock. And there might be players that in player interviews come off as a head case and fall a few rounds lower than predicted via mock.

It's easy to identify the outliers in draft spot selection as compared to career results, such as JaMarcus Russell and Tom Brady. 

I'm not sure that overall, the recruiting rankings, or the draft as a whole, or the mock drafts, are entirely devoid of predictive power though.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #353 on: April 29, 2019, 08:07:05 PM »
My problem isn't the mock drafts, really, it's the avalanche of people crapping on the Duke QB being taken.  We don't know what's going to happen.  No one does, at all, because there are so very many variables that it's a guessing game.

This is why coaches and GMs do the herd mentality sheep thing all the time - it's safe.  If every GM just picked the consensus guy at their spot, then the players might as well be assigned to the teams instead of chosen.  


The Duke QB could very well have a much better career than Haskins without either player really having much to do with his own end result.  That's what makes the talking heads bashing any particular pick so childish.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #354 on: April 29, 2019, 08:16:11 PM »
He was 7th in ACC QB ratings.Not sure anyone had him pegged in the 2nd.It's not mob mentality could have traded and got Rosen who most agree has a higher ceiling.And it's that GM blowing a lot of smoke and none of it really believable
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Mdot21

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #355 on: April 29, 2019, 10:53:02 PM »

Ryan McCrystal


If the Browns kept the 17th overall pick and selected Greedy Williams it would be an A grade.



Ryan McCRYSTAL tweeted this he works for bleacher report but use to an insider with ESPN - hope he is right

I loved the pick. I can’t quite figure out why he slipped so much. 

Yes, he doesn’t love to tackle and he might be a bit slight but he’ll fill out his frame. He might also be a bit of a shit head off the field, but he’s not that much of a problem or red flag that it should tank his draft stock. And the not loving to tackle thing isn’t that big of a deal- he’s a CB. Lots of really good CBs have had an aversion to going all out and sacrificing the body when it comes to tackling. The CBs like your Rod Woodson’s and the Charles Woodson’s who will sacrifice it all to make the tackle and bring the big hits are rare. Greedy was the best man to man cover corner in the draft and he’s 6’2 and change and runs 4.3. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #356 on: April 30, 2019, 01:20:41 AM »
He was 7th in ACC QB ratings.Not sure anyone had him pegged in the 2nd.It's not mob mentality could have traded and got Rosen who most agree has a higher ceiling.And it's that GM blowing a lot of smoke and none of it really believable
Okay, but at this point, all the GM is guilty of is not going along with the consensus.  How dare he!


He won't be vindicated nor his stupidity confirmed for years, so this knee-jerk criticism is silly.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bayareabadger

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #357 on: April 30, 2019, 08:33:44 AM »
"Okay, but at this point, all the GM is guilty of is not going along with the consensus.  How dare he!


He won't be vindicated nor his stupidity confirmed for years, so this knee-jerk criticism is silly."


That I can't properly quote this for some reason is annoying, but it sort of half true.

He's guilty of following the old consensus and doing so very aggressively. He picked a QB who looks like a QB, who is tall, built and a few ticks more athletic than average. The guy has the blessing of one of the best QB minds in the business, which is something shortsighted GMs love. They also got to watch him in practice and just loved how he practiced. 

But he's also a guy who didn't play football particularly well, either by the numerical indicators or the eye test. Now perhaps it's a stroke of genius. Perhaps there's something in the not playing football well that was actually really good. But you'll catch some flack for that.

Now the second part is when he was taken. That, and the ensuing explanation, suggest he was not going along with the consensus. If Jones was not valued by consensus, he would've been available later on. So that could be value lost. The GM insists he would've been gone by the 17th pick. So in that sense, the GM was just the most aggressive in working within the consensus. (The same way someone ends up paying the big NBA deal we all know isn't wise)

Now it's also true the larger talking-head-dom is taking on a more new-age approach, and that's turned against the "Take a QB with traits and we can make him into a thing" camp. That's because those QBs had a massive failure rate. Granted, all QBs have a stupendous failure rate. 

Maybe he ends up Matt Ryan, who was kinda overdrafted and ended up quite good. But at the moment people need thoughts. Shoot, we got em in the middle of a game about a specific play, why not now?

MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #358 on: April 30, 2019, 09:02:31 AM »
Okay, but at this point, all the GM is guilty of is not going along with the consensus.  How dare he!


He won't be vindicated nor his stupidity confirmed for years, so this knee-jerk criticism is silly.
This isn't about being going along with the consensus - they're happy as hell he probably blew the pick.FWIW many believe the cardinals screwed the pooch also by picking a smallish QB no 1 over all and sending rosen packing.Time will tell it's just that's a draft position you can't swing and miss on.I know the Browns do it with distressing frequency.I was livid when they used 1st rd picks on both Weeden and Manziel.One turned 29 his rookie year and the other a pixie who even had he not misbehaved still would have gotten curb stomped
« Last Edit: April 30, 2019, 09:25:44 AM by MrNubbz »
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #359 on: April 30, 2019, 09:19:31 AM »


Now the second part is when he was taken. That, and the ensuing explanation, suggest he was not going along with the consensus. If Jones was not valued by consensus, he would've been available later on. So that could be value lost. 
THIS,there was no indication by either Washington or Denver they were leaning that way nor did they elude to it.Gettleman is pulling conjecture out of his backside.Obviously he is feeling unsure because the fans are jaded with the pick and explanation
"It is the duty of the  Patriot to protect his country from it's government" - Thomas Paine

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #360 on: April 30, 2019, 05:58:50 PM »
The prediction business is supposed to be about being right more often than other people.  But we don't even bother to go back and determine who was right and who was wrong.  We just say Player Z was a bust or Player A was a steal.  The prediction business has become entertainment-for-me-now and had almost nothing to do with actual accuracy.

The only time anyone was held accountable was the Manning/Leaf year, in which everyone agrees the Colts chose wisely.  But did they?  What if they took Leaf?  What if Leaf had Marshall Faulk to hand off to and throw to out of the backfield?  What if he had Marvin Harrison instead of the crap SD trotted out there?  What if he had a defense that improved by 100 points allowed in his 2nd year? 

Even in these seemingly cut-and-dry cases, there's such much noise in the system that I don't think we can be certain about anything.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #361 on: April 30, 2019, 06:05:12 PM »
Even in these seemingly cut-and-dry cases, there's such much noise in the system that I don't think we can be certain about anything.

We're Americans. We can be certain about anything.

It says so in the Declaration of Independence. I'm certain of it. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #362 on: April 30, 2019, 07:03:25 PM »
Last I heard, we were 18th or 30th or something in math, but 1st in the world in math confidence.  It's embarrassing.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bayareabadger

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #363 on: April 30, 2019, 07:36:09 PM »
“The prediction business is supposed to be about being right more often than other people.”

Ehh, the prediction business is mostly about attention. Becuase we pay attention to the most interesting predictions.

If it’s really good, it’s about making money. And then it’s based on odds and margins. And then we spend a lot of time messing up what those mean. (Like if something that has and 80 percent chance of happening doesn’t, we use it as an indictment of the system in play)

 

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