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Topic: 2019 NFL Draft

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bayareabadger

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #70 on: March 13, 2019, 02:54:59 PM »
Fascinating points about Stafford up above, a team being in effect hostage to a great arm.


What does this mean? Just that having a talented QB and using him a bunch is bad for a diverse offense? That a strong armed QB might be overvalued talent-wise?
If I give Stafford Brady’s arm strength and Peyton in college Wurrfuls’s how does the dynamic change?

FearlessF

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #71 on: March 13, 2019, 03:02:24 PM »
The point stands (if it stands at all) in college football as well.
well the coach has a fat contract, but there's no salary cap
do you mean the cap on scholarships?
I didn't think so
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #72 on: March 13, 2019, 04:28:52 PM »
How much is it talent and how much is quick thinking and hard work?

There is no ideal height for a pitcher in baseball.  They are all over, though larger guys more often can bring it.  A longer arm has more potential for putting more spin on a breaking ball, in theory anyway, even though most of that is wrist.  I got to try to hit off Marvin Freeman who is 6'8" and can still make the ball make ugly noises.

What is the mean height for an NFL QB these days, and range around the mean, min/max, etc?

Mdot21

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #73 on: March 13, 2019, 04:41:53 PM »
Earl Thomas signs with the Ravens. 4 years, $55 million with $32 million in guaranteed money.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #74 on: March 13, 2019, 04:49:52 PM »
What does this mean? Just that having a talented QB and using him a bunch is bad for a diverse offense? That a strong armed QB might be overvalued talent-wise?
If I give Stafford Brady’s arm strength and Peyton in college Wurrfuls’s how does the dynamic change?
I guess it's a case of departure from what you'd ordinarily do.  If you have a QB with an arm like Wuerffel, you don't feel pressured to throw any more than you ordinarily would.  We know Wuerffel threw the ball plenty under Spurrier, but that's the norm for Spurrier.
With a QB with special arm talent, you feel pressured to use him more, perhaps too much - you may even ignore the makeup of your team.  Tennessee from 1997 to 1998 - most of the linemen were the same, most of the same RBs, same WRs, but a big difference at QB.  They ran the ball a lot more because that's what the roster dictated, and they won all of their games.
We all know you should play to your team's strengths and the key to what I'm saying is that you shouldn't blindly pass more than normal just because your QB has a big arm, just when you have a great overall QB...and even then, only to a small degree.  Even if I have a Brady or a Montana, I need to run the ball plenty.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #75 on: March 13, 2019, 05:12:51 PM »
Stafford's always had a big arm, but why not special results?  Because he's not a great QB.  
He wasn't "good" at UGA until his 3rd year as starter.  The year after he left, the QB was Joe Cox (who?) and his first season as starter was better than either of Stafford's first two.  

QBs become #1 draft picks because of their arms, not their results.  Their potential gives scouts hard-ons, because they think that arm talent can be made into a great QB...but it's far from a given.  In the NFL, Stafford has a losing record and the only bold stats he's lead the league in is completions (once) and attempts (twice).  Not rating, not comp%, not yards per attempt (important stats).  The Lions have leaned on him plenty and it hasn't yielded any of their goals.  


Everyone wants to gauge QBs by their wins and championships, so their lack of success must mean something as well, no?  




If you look at #1 overall QB picks, they all have one thing in common:  arm strength.  What they don't have in common was that they were quality overall QBs when they were drafted or even developed into quality QBs during their career.
87 - Testaverde (90-123-1)
89 - Aikman (94-71)
90 - George (46-78)
93 - Bledsoe (98-95)
98 - Manning, P. (186-79)
99 - Couch (22-37)
01 - Vick (61-51-1)
02 - Carr (23-56)
03 - Palmer (92-88-1)
04 - Manning, E. (116-114)
05 - Smith (94-66-1)
07 - Russell (7-18)
09 - Stafford (66-75)
10 - Bradford (34-48-1)
11 - Newton (68-53-1)
12 - Luck (53-33)
15 - Winston (21-33)
16 - Goff (24-14)
18 - Mayfield (6-7)
Yes, these were drafted by bad teams.  No, they shouldn't be expected to save their franchises.  But over a career, as the best of the best, they should be winners.  But look, it's a crapshoot.  Why don't more guys with cannon arms become great QBs?  



Because it takes so much more than that.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bayareabadger

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #76 on: March 13, 2019, 05:24:29 PM »
Stafford's always had a big arm, but why not special results?  Because he's not a great QB.  
He wasn't "good" at UGA until his 3rd year as starter.  The year after he left, the QB was Joe Cox (who?) and his first season as starter was better than either of Stafford's first two.  

QBs become #1 draft picks because of their arms, not their results.  Their potential gives scouts hard-ons, because they think that arm talent can be made into a great QB...but it's far from a given.  In the NFL, Stafford has a losing record and the only bold stats he's lead the league in is completions (once) and attempts (twice).  Not rating, not comp%, not yards per attempt (important stats).  The Lions have leaned on him plenty and it hasn't yielded any of their goals.  


Everyone wants to gauge QBs by their wins and championships, so their lack of success must mean something as well, no?  




If you look at #1 overall QB picks, they all have one thing in common:  arm strength.  What they don't have in common was that they were quality overall QBs when they were drafted or even developed into quality QBs during their career.
87 - Testaverde (90-123-1)
89 - Aikman (94-71)
90 - George (46-78)
93 - Bledsoe (98-95)
98 - Manning, P. (186-79)
99 - Couch (22-37)
01 - Vick (61-51-1)
02 - Carr (23-56)
03 - Palmer (92-88-1)
04 - Manning, E. (116-114)
05 - Smith (94-66-1)
07 - Russell (7-18)
09 - Stafford (66-75)
10 - Bradford (34-48-1)
11 - Newton (68-53-1)
12 - Luck (53-33)
15 - Winston (21-33)
16 - Goff (24-14)
18 - Mayfield (6-7)
Yes, these were drafted by bad teams.  No, they shouldn't be expected to save their franchises.  But over a career, as the best of the best, they should be winners.  But look, it's a crapshoot.  Why don't more guys with cannon arms become great QBs?  



Because it takes so much more than that.

The short answer is becuase almost no QBs become great QBs. 
It’s a fallacy to isolate one part of the group and say “look how bad it is.” Most QBs fail. 
And by this metric, you have Cannon-arm Joe Flacco at 96-67. Dude was drafted for that cannon, has a great record, and there’s just not that much to deduce from it. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #77 on: March 13, 2019, 06:50:56 PM »
I guess it's a case of departure from what you'd ordinarily do.  If you have a QB with an arm like Wuerffel, you don't feel pressured to throw any more than you ordinarily would.  We know Wuerffel threw the ball plenty under Spurrier, but that's the norm for Spurrier.
With a QB with special arm talent, you feel pressured to use him more, perhaps too much - you may even ignore the makeup of your team.  Tennessee from 1997 to 1998 - most of the linemen were the same, most of the same RBs, same WRs, but a big difference at QB.  They ran the ball a lot more because that's what the roster dictated, and they won all of their games.
We all know you should play to your team's strengths and the key to what I'm saying is that you shouldn't blindly pass more than normal just because your QB has a big arm, just when you have a great overall QB...and even then, only to a small degree.  Even if I have a Brady or a Montana, I need to run the ball plenty.
I think this is to a degree more interesting than the NFL one. And I think that because there's a kernel of truth. Big arm dudes are given more and earlier chances. They get more leeway. That might lead to some poor play. They also get absorbed into more bad situations more often. 
But I don't think the UT thing is that. Manning was plenty good at all the other stuff. Using the fact they won all the games the next year is seeing something changed and saying "Ah-HA" that must be it. 
In truth, if you traded the UF teams and bowl opponents, between the teams (and maybe the Vols turnover work in the second game), Manning probably has a title. Murderball Nebraska is a lot better than FSU with a backup QB. That Gators team was short offensive playmakers. I was tempted to argue the UT defense was better in 1998, and it was in PPG, but there's a chance that's because of a slower pace.
I'll go with this. I looked back on how Tennessee beat Florida, which was the biggest difference between those regular seasons. The Vols got outgained 396-235. They won by the skin of their teeth with five turnovers. Though the air they were 7-20 for 64 yards. Martin did have a few very nice plays and didn't turn it over, a notch above Manning, but I'm guessing if you gave Manning five dang turnovers and held the Gators to 17 points, he'd have won that game. 
Things just came together for that UT team. You could argue they were now free to run, but even there, they lost their best back to injury, one who got the ball 240 times with Manning. And in football, talent trumps system a heck of a lot. If you have an awesome QB, you use the dude, the same way they uses an awesome RB and awesome WRs in Manning's last year. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #78 on: March 13, 2019, 08:51:57 PM »
About 97-98 Tennessee, the offense's influence on the UT defense is important.  
In 97, they averaged 41 passes and 33 runs per game.  And that's for a 11-1 regular season team with comfortable wins, so to get the lead, the difference is even greater (think Spurrier usually averaging out to 50/50 run/pass each year, but passing to get the lead and running to finish out the game).  
In 98, they averaged 23 passes and 43 runs.  

But the defense improved from 22 points allowed in 97 to 14.5 in 98.  They had more rest throughout the game.  

And how did Travis Henry and Travis Stephens, good RBs, help UT to a better ypc average in 98 than big, bad Jamal Lewis in 97?  Yes, Martin's rushing helped some, but still, even if it's a draw, the Travises weren't as good as Lewis.


Plus there's the thing that teams with elite defenses rarely have good offenses AND teams with big passing offenses don't usually have very physical defenses.  All those practices vs Peyton's offense, knowing they're going to throw it 40 times per game VS practicing against an offense that's giving you a steady diet of runs between the tackles.....it matters.


Just a theory I have is all.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #79 on: March 13, 2019, 08:54:41 PM »
98 Vols didn't play Nebraska

that helped
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bayareabadger

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #80 on: March 13, 2019, 09:35:41 PM »
But the defense improved from 22 points allowed in 97 to 14.5 in 98.  They had more rest throughout the game.  

And how did Travis Henry and Travis Stephens, good RBs, help UT to a better ypc average in 98 than big, bad Jamal Lewis in 97?  Yes, Martin's rushing helped some, but still, even if it's a draw, the Travises weren't as good as Lewis.


I shy away from the offense-defense question simply because I am short data. For all I know, running more lowered the pace of games significantly, or the schedule that was easier helped. I don’t dispute that COULD be the case, but to decide it was felt like putting the conclusion ahead of the process.
I’d assume the gap in YPC was going from a QB who didn’t run, but took sacks, to one who did run. Lewis has a higher YPC than both. I’d argue that’s sort of a push.
I deleted the part about going up against Payton’s offense, but I kinda disagree. That team was still an I-form, downhill power team. The scout team RBs are Travis Henry and Stephens. I’m unconvinced at best that makes a soft defense.
And that isn’t to say I disagree with the center of the theory, but I think it’s being forced here. I just think that UT team was one of those teams that just happens to win all the games. The SOS went from 1st to 26th and had to pull out three wins by less than 4 points. And the whole argument rests on them being better. 

I mean, Fulmer had been not throwing the ball a lot, and it didn’t get him any other titles.

Mdot21

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #81 on: March 14, 2019, 11:26:24 AM »
Chiefs trade edge rusher Dee Ford to the San Fransisco 49ers for a 2nd round pick in the 2020 draft and they also cut starting safety Eric Berry and starting OLB Justin Houston.

Not sure how any of those moves helps their terrible defense. That's BY FAR their 3 most talented players on defense- all shipped on out. This was the 31st ranked defense in the NFL by the way. Yikes.

I guess Andy Reid's plan next year will be, hey let's just score 45 points a game.

FearlessF

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #82 on: March 14, 2019, 11:27:50 AM »
was it Ford or Houston that was lined up offside?

hell, doesn't matter, they're both gone
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Mdot21

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #83 on: March 14, 2019, 11:33:17 AM »
was it Ford or Houston that was lined up offside?

hell, doesn't matter, they're both gone
it was Ford. Yup, both gone. Ford is only 27 and Houston 30. Not exactly like either were dinosaurs. Both have lots of good football left.
Ford missed most of 2017, but in 2016 he had 10 sacks and in 2018 he had 13 sacks. Houston has been one of the best, most consistent sack artists in the NFL for like the last 6-7 years. You don't just cut bait on guys who can produce 10+ sacks a year consistently.
I understand them cutting Eric Berry, he's dealt with lots of injuries and cancer, plus safeties tend to break down quicker than edge rushers. Once the athleticism starts to go in a safety he can't play man coverage quite like he used to or cover up as much ground as he used to. Pass rushers? They have one job, just get up-field and get after the QB. Those guys can play a long, long time.

 

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