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Topic: 2019 NFL Draft

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bayareabadger

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2019, 10:43:37 PM »
Yeah, I still don't like him more than Haskins, and certainly not #1 overall, particularly when you just took one last year.  Go take Bosa or Williams, and you'll have more pieces when you find a QB worth drafting high, as you'll probably be right back there again next year.
I wonder how much of this is just buzz because he's interesting. Like, he's fun to talk about and people REALLY like reading about him. 

Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2019, 10:35:04 AM »
538 has its detractors and won't be confused by anyone for having football expertise, but its reputation with numbers and logical regression are fine or better. Here, they compare various statistical college measures that are most predictive of NFL success, find it's completion percentage that tracks best, and then improve that measure to reward players whose average pass goes farther or whose conference DBs are best (since 2011, the Big Ten has tracked as best in pass efficiency defense). The product is CPOE - completion percentage over expected - and it has an argument to make for Kyler Murray.


https://mobile.twitter.com/friscojosh/status/1100870134678327296

ELA

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2019, 11:02:40 AM »
Yeah, I don't get the love, but I don't get the hate either.  I think he's the 2nd best QB in the draft, but it's not a great QB draft.  If someone took him #12 or whatever, I wouldn't blink.  It's that he's going #1, to a team that just took a QB last year at like #7.  He doesn't look like a generational no brainer #1 like a Manning or a Luck or something.  And that's what I'd expect him to be for a team to considering him from the Cardinals perspective.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2019, 05:20:11 PM »
The QBs available next year could be epic.  I'd wait one.  Get Drew Lock in the 3rd if you need a QB.  Maybe 2nd.



No Dawgs of note this year other than the DB.  Holyfield ran a slow time but he looks decently fast on the field.  But he probably would not start in college next year.

Mdot21

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #18 on: March 09, 2019, 03:25:04 PM »
Before we turn him into a poop sandwich, keep in mind:
he had the best yards per attempt in history
he had the 2nd best rating in history
while rushing for 1,001 yards

And if you believe in Baker Mayfield, Murray did it on the same team in the same offense against the same competition (largely).  
I don't think anyone is saying he's a poop sandwich. Questioning his long term prospects in the NFL and whether or not he's a 1st round pick isn't calling him a poop sandwich.
Baker did it for 3 years straight. Murray did it for one. Think it's pretty obvious that the system/coach and the conference are conducive to generating stats. Really what they did in college means nothing when you're talking about projecting them out as pros in the big boy leauge where everyone plays defense and everyone is a grown ass man.

Baker measured 6'1" at the NFL combine. That's a far cry from 5'10" like Murray. Baker was also more stocky, he just looked more built and more like a man- Murray looks very sleight like he's still a high schooler. Baker's arm was also better- more live- he's got more velocity and more juice on his passes. His game and tools just looked like they'd translate to the next level better than Murray's. I was a huge fan of Mayfield's- was on record on here saying he's the only QB from last years draft that I'd touch with a 1st round pick.

To me this draft- Dwayne Haskins is that guy this year. He's the only guy I'd touch with a 1st round pick this draft. He's 6'3+, 230+ with a fricken rocket launcher.

Mdot21

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #19 on: March 09, 2019, 03:26:03 PM »
538 has its detractors and won't be confused by anyone for having football expertise, but its reputation with numbers and logical regression are fine or better. Here, they compare various statistical college measures that are most predictive of NFL success, find it's completion percentage that tracks best, and then improve that measure to reward players whose average pass goes farther or whose conference DBs are best (since 2011, the Big Ten has tracked as best in pass efficiency defense). The product is CPOE - completion percentage over expected - and it has an argument to make for Kyler Murray.


https://mobile.twitter.com/friscojosh/status/1100870134678327296
538 is useless garbage.

Mdot21

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #20 on: March 09, 2019, 03:33:46 PM »
The QBs available next year could be epic.  I'd wait one.  Get Drew Lock in the 3rd if you need a QB.  Maybe 2nd.



No Dawgs of note this year other than the DB.  Holyfield ran a slow time but he looks decently fast on the field.  But he probably would not start in college next year.
Not sure I agree. Haskins is better than any QB that'll be available in the 2020 draft imo.
Tua = slightly bigger, but less athletic version of Kyler Murray to me. Solid 2nd or 3rd rd pick, but not some generational sure-thing #1 like Luck was in 2012 or like the Clemson kid will be in a couple years. Really not sure he'd rate higher than Murray.
Herbert from Oregon is pretty MEH to me. I just don't see it. Fromm from Georgia is a game manager with low draft ceiling, so he's probably not even leaving early anyway.
I'd take Haskins over any and all of those and not have to think twice about it. Trevor Lawrence in 2021 is going to be the next real prize and the best prospect since Luck.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #21 on: March 09, 2019, 04:18:06 PM »
https://www.12up.com/posts/6256687-2020-qb-draft-class-is-suddenly-insanely-stacked

I'm far from a draftnik, so take my opinions with a small grain.  I did think Maziel was a sure fire bust and Mayfield was not at all Manziel.  Tua is one of the best CFB QBs I've ever seen play, IMHO.  Fromm has the knock of "game manager" but I suspect the scouts will see that differently.

MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #22 on: March 10, 2019, 08:57:04 AM »
538 is useless garbage.
Well he certainly isn't the Gold Standard in player evaluation that he thinks he is
Not sure I agree. Haskins is better than any QB that'll be available in the 2020 draft imo.
I'd take Haskins over any and all of those and not have to think twice about it. Trevor Lawrence in 2021 is going to be the next real prize and the best prospect since Luck.
Rooting interests aside if Haskins feet can keep him out of trouble he just might pan out.Is Murray a plug in and play guy for a decade? - I'm not seeing it.IMO if Kingsbury taps Murray with the very 1st pick he will rightfully earn a place along side of Mike Martz or Marty Mornhinweg amongst the sideline coaching litter.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #23 on: March 10, 2019, 10:45:28 AM »
https://247sports.com/college/alabama/Article/How-Alabama-Football-QB-Tua-Tagovailoas-height-compares-to-Kyler-Murray-Baker-Mayfield-129802389/

The NFL does love 6'4" QBs.  

https://www.landgrantholyland.com/2019/2/15/18226750/ohio-state-football-basketball-news-dwayne-haskins-nfl-scouts

“Haskins scares me, but he has the most traits to work with. Still, he’s not [Jared] Goff or anything. He would have been QB4 in last year’s class.”

Everyone has an opinion.  Meh.

MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #24 on: March 10, 2019, 11:51:22 AM »
I dunno Haskins put up impressive numbers for just 1 season.If he can continue on that trajectory he could be more than serviceable.I've said before that some posters on this board could make up a formidable scouting department for an NFL franchise.The guys that are quoted in reality prolly don't have the hours most of us have watching CFB.Unless they're employed by the Sunday League,even then many are just taking up space.Man the off season's long
« Last Edit: March 10, 2019, 12:24:57 PM by MrNubbz »
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #25 on: March 10, 2019, 02:41:09 PM »
Sure, Murray is small and might get mangled like a car accident victim, but that has nothing to do with his playing ability.  He should play well while he's on the field. 
While the NFL is stodgy as hell, it's also fluid, slowly, but fluid nontheless.  Athletic QBs are happening - partly because of normal game evolution and partly because NFL teams all want the 6'4", 230 guy with a cannon and there aren't 32 of those to go around.  So you have to come at it a different way.  
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #26 on: March 10, 2019, 05:41:34 PM »
It's the NFL he will be killed and eaten.I wouldn't touch him with the 1st over all pick
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2019 NFL Draft
« Reply #27 on: March 10, 2019, 07:40:36 PM »
Idk, it's easy to say he shouldn't be the #1 pick, because almost no one should.  Like saying he probably won't be a good NFL QB, because almost no one will be.  Safe to say these things.

If I had the #1 pick, I'd trade down, no matter what year it was, who I could get, or what team I am.  If you earned the #1 pick, one player isn't going to turn things around.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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