2019 Michigan Season Thread

[FearlessF]

blowout losses are merely one game

the fans and big boosters don't like it, but it's not time to panic

yes, blowouts can be a sign that the program is going the wrong way, but not always

when a very good team gets on a roll, they can make another very good team look bad and beat them by 20+ points

especially in this day of spread offenses and teams running up the score

Michigan may have had their wake-up call

[FearlessF]

I'm not seeing it here, Lloyd

[Cincydawg]

when a very good team gets on a roll, they can make another very good team look bad and beat them by 20+ points

especially in this day of spread offenses and teams running up the score

I called it preseason when I noted Wisconsin's new air raid wide open fast paced passing offense.

[MrNubbz]

also interesting that Brutus and Nubbz have the majority of posts here lately

You're right,disgraceful and I know you've never poked your pot-stirrin' snout into the Big XII Board during Texas-Oklahoma week since UNL fled....I mean left

[FearlessF]

of course not

[medinabuckeye1]

It is interesting to ponder whether some of this is cyclical, or a long term trend (Michigan and Tennessee).  It takes a while to really know obviously, and one very good coaching hire and flip the script (just as one bad one after Saban or Meyer or Sabo can do the same).

Michigan has been essentially in this spot before.  It is usually underappreciated even by Michigan fans just how huge the Schembechler hire was.  From 1951-1968 Michigan won only one league title and no NC's.  They were, IMHO, on their way to becoming another Minnesota*.  Then they hired Bo and the rest, as they say, is history.  

Some perspective:
Michigan has been in this league for a total of 113 years (11 from 1896-1906 and another 102 from 1917-2018.  In those 113 seasons of competition in the league they have won 42 league titles.  That works out to almost two titles every five years.  In and of itself, that is impressive.  Within that time they have three major droughts:

• In the 13 years from 1934-1946 they only won one title (1943).  OTOH, they won four straight both in the four years prior (1930-1933) and the the four years after (1947-1950).  
• In the 18 years from 1951-1968 they won only one title (1964).  OTOH, the won four straight prior (1947-1950) and they won 10 in the 14 years after (1969-1982).  
• In the 14 years from 2005-2018 they haven't won a title.  They did win two straight prior (2003-2004).  

If you exclude those three droughts, Michigan has been in the league for 68 years and won 40 league titles.  That works out to nearly two titles every three years.  

Minnesota*:  Most everyone here should get this reference but for anyone who doesn't, Minnesota won a slew of league and national titles in the early days of CFB.  In 1941 Minnesota won both a league and a national title.  That was their 16th league title (and seventh in nine years 1933-1941) and their sixth national title (second consecutive and fifth in eight years 1934-1941).  Post-war the Gophers never returned to their former glory.  In the 77 years from 1942-2018 they have won just two league titles (1960, 1967) and one national title (1960).  Interestingly, when Minnesota won the 1941 league title they led the league with 16 titles.  Michigan was second with 15, Illinois was third with eight and Chicago was fourth with seven.  From 1942-2018 Minnesota is tied with Indiana for last among teams that have been in the league the whole time with just two titles.  

[Cincydawg]

Yeah, FSU is another program that has slipped pretty hard and needs to get back or get forgotten.  I think it takes about 20 years of "mediocrity" for folks to "forget" a team was once a Blue Blood.  It spirals with recruiting first of course, the elites don't think to put you on their initial list at some point.  How many elite players think "Minnesota might be an option"?  Probably zero outside the state or legacy player.

Might Michigan/Tenn/FSU/Miami drift into that situation in a few years?  Possibly.

[ELA]

We discussed this a couple offseasons ago.  I guess none of the helmets have gone through an extended period of mediocrity, but it's almost like once college football became a national sport, instead of a regional one, in the 70s and 80s, it somehow locked in the helmet schools.

Florida State and Miami are an interesting case study, because they were there only at the end of that, so is their status more fluid?

What defines mediocrity?  Lack of conference championships?  Final ranking?  BCS/NY6 bowls?

Michigan last won a Big Ten title in 2004.  Since then they've had two AP Top 10 finishes (2006 and 2016), and 4 BCS/NY6 bowls.

Looking at some other helmet or potential helmet teams, and their worst 15 year stretch in the past 50 years (going back to Bo's hiring).  Obviously UM could still accomplish a bunch of things this season

Michigan - 2005-2019 (0 Big 10 titles, 0 division titles, 2 AP Top 10 finishes, 4 major bowls, 3 losing seasons)
Alabama - 1993-2007 (1 SEC title, 3 division titles, 3 AP Top 10 finishes, 2 major bowls, 3 losing seasons)
Oklahoma - 1987-2001 (2 Big 8/12 titles, 1 division title, 1 National Title, 3 AP Top 10 finishes, 3 major bowls, 3 losing seasons)
Texas - 1978-1992 (2 SWC titles, 3 AP Top 10 finishes, 3 major bowls, 4 losing seasons)
USC - 1987-2001 (5 Pac 10 titles, 2 AP Top 10 finishes, 5 major bowls, 2 losing seasons)
Ohio State - 1987-2001 (3 Big 10 titles, 3 AP Top 10 finishes, 3 major bowls, 1 losing season)
Notre Dame - 1996-2011 (1 AP Top 10 finish, 3 major bowls, 4 losing seasons)
Nebraska - 2004-2018 (0 Big 12/10 titles, 4 division titles, 0 AP Top 10 finishes, 1 major bowl, 5 losing seasons)
Tennessee - 2004-2018 (0 SEC titles, 2 division titles, 0 AP Top 10 finishes, 1 major bowl, 8 losing seasons)
Penn State - 2000-2014 (2 Big 10 titles, 1 division title, 3 AP Top 10 finishes, 2 major bowls, 4 losing seasons)

[847badgerfan]

Tennessee and Nebraska look to have fallen hardest, and they are still in the midst. Of the two, I think UNL is more likely to "turn it around", because, at least to me, UNL's division mates are more likely to go into a prolonged downturn than are Georgia and Florida. 

Who knows what will happen when King Barry hangs 'em up. Fitz, Kirk, etc.

[Cincydawg]

I view it in a series of steps for an elite level program:

1.  Bad coaching hire for four years, mediocre results, meaning 8-5 and 7-4 seasons.
2.  Bad coaching hire for four more years, even worse results.  Elite recruits no longer consider the program as elite.
3.  Bad coaching hire for four more years, trouble with recruiting, mediocre results, 

After 20 years or so, maybe, and no top ten finishes, not real "They are BACK" seasons like Texas has had, and they drop out of the top or near top.

The last time Tennessee finished in the top 20 was 2007.  The last time in the top 10 was 2001.  Their last two finishes were 4-8 and 5-7, and this year they had a shot at 8-5 or even 9-4, but obviously won't be anywhere near that.  Do elite recruits still put the Vols on an initial list of possibles?  I doubt it.

Their recruiting has been mostly in the teens, so "OK", but that could slip now and "that would be that".  They would turn into a program happy to make a bowl game and 9-4 would perhaps be their top end, something like Minnesota.  Maybe.

[FearlessF]

I'm not concerned that Michigan is going to fall from the helmet ranks anytime soon

the only team on that list that might be in trouble is Tennessee, but if the admin is supportive, they will keep trying until they get the right coach

[Cincydawg]

Michigan is WAY ahead of the Vols, no doubt.  I'd have Tenn, FSU, and Miami on the "watch list", Michigan is simply failing to reach expectations while still having solid seasons.

[FearlessF]

FSU and Miami have too much recruiting talent in their backyard

losing support from the university for the football program would be the only thing to cause them to fail

and obviously, there's too much money to be gained by football

[847badgerfan]

FSU and Miami have too much recruiting talent in their backyard

losing support from the university for the football program would be the only thing to cause them to fail

and obviously, there's too much money to be gained by football

Miami has worked very hard in the last couple of decades to increase its academic stature (it has). I don't know if this is coincidence or not. I also think moving away from Orange Bowl Stadium really hurt too. They might be best off moving to Marlins Park, if they could make the dimensions work. 


Miami and FSU are not helmet schools.