2019 Michigan Season Thread

[Anonymous Coward]

I mean this politely as possible, this sentace is the start of disappointment.
Spread and RPO sound a lot more high tech and foreign than they end up being.

That's why Harbaugh's commitment to change is still my top question. The quotes are too dramatic to believe. But if JH is committed and Gattis is truly in charge, THEN I'd predict that he'd use those words (RPO and spread) to mean at Michigan what they did when the 2018 Bama and 2016/2017 PSU offenses were being designed.

And that's why my next biggest question is whether Gattis is all that.

[Anonymous Coward]

We'll know a lot about Q1 by the spring game. We'll know a lot about Q2 in twelve months.

But Q3, whether the personnel is built to be more like 2017 PSU or more like 2011 Alabama (with Warmack/Jones/Fluker forming one of the scariest OLs in history and McCarron being a drab but efficient pocket passer), well we already know that. 

Michigan isn't built at OL to forfeit unpredictability. And rush-rush-pass is wasting their QB/WRs. I'd have loved to see Harbaugh's offense with Warmack/Jones/Fluker, but the real world requires a new plan.

[847badgerfan]

I will probably go to the M game in Madison this year. 

[Anonymous Coward]

I will probably go to the M game in Madison this year.

If I've finished this second doctorate by then, I'll be there too. I'm not usually one for restraint, but that's the rule I've given myself. Would be great to get back. Last I was there was for a bachelor weekend - including broom ball on UW's practice rink.

[Mdot21]

Does he have the personnel to make that move right now will be a huge question.  Think back when Rich Rod came in and wanted to run his system, the personnel just was not there and M fan were not going to give him the transition time to make it work.  If Jimmy Football does not like the result, he will go back to what he knows and loves.

Of course they have the personnel to do it. Shea Patterson is tailor made for that style of offense. As is Dylan McCaffrey. These are athletic QB's that can run and throw on the run. These guys aren't statue pocket passers by any means. Their only returning RB with any experience- Chris Evans- is tailor made for that style of offense. He's not a downhill, I-formation runner- like Harbaugh stupidly kept trying to make him into. Evans has a chance to really flourish and take off to the next level in a different style of offense.
They are loaded up the wazoo with elite WR talent like DPJ, Nico Collins, and Tarik Black. Ronnie Bell and Oliver Martin ain't shabby 4th and 5th WR options. They brought in maybe the best slot-ninja WR recruit in the nation in the 2019 class in Giles Jackson and another WR who has big-time talent in 4* Cornelius Johnson. Nick Eubanks is the perfect type of big WR pretending to be a TE that fits that style of offense like a glove as well.
Their personnel is tailor made for that style of wide open, spread it out, quick pace offense.
Time to ditch the FB's and the TE's and get into the 21st century already. And besides- with Gentry gone off to the NFL there really isn't any reason to feature the TE anymore. Sean McKeon freaking sucks and any play with him involved is just a wasted play. Time to ditch the traditional TE and start using the Flex TE. 2019 should be goodbye McKeon, hello Eubanks.

[Anonymous Coward]

I loved the Fullback offense when it was creative with traps and dives in 2015/2016. Every effective and unpredictable offense is awesome. And Harbaugh's was different, which was an enjoyment amplifier. But then he packed that stuff up for reasons, some good, many bad.

[bayareabadger]

That's why Harbaugh's commitment to change is still my top question. The quotes are too dramatic to believe. But if JH is committed and Gattis is truly in charge, THEN I'd predict that he'd use those words (RPO and spread) to mean at Michigan what they did when the 2018 Bama and 2016/2017 PSU offenses were being designed.

And that's why my next biggest question is whether Gattis is all that.

You misunderstand me, these quotes are not too dramatic to believe. They are not that way because UM already runs a modest amount of "spread" stuff, as that word is kinda meaningless at this point. And Michigan has some RPOs in their package. 
I know, I know, this is my hobby horse, but we put so much on design and play-calling, when what we're really talking about it effectiveness. And these are much less tightly linked than we imagine. Technique, finer points of coaching and just playing better matter far more than having a third WR out there all the time.
Using the Bama offense as a comparison point for anything isn't all that useful. Their third-leading rusher might be the first back taken in the draft. They have five receivers ranked ahead of anyone Mich has but DPJ, and have a very rare QB. Garbage time started in the second quarter much of the season.
Penn State is a more interesting comparison. I don't know if they fully gave themselves to the RPO lifestyle, but they have the numbers of a team that did. They didn't run the ball much. The thing with RPOs is the defense tells you when you run and when you pass. Penn State also had the oddity it wasn't that efficent but was hilariously good at big plays. If they go that route and struggle, I wonder when we hear, "Why aren't they running it more?"
In the end, I worry we'll see what we want to see. If the offense is running spread and RPOs and isn't good, we'll see it as a Harbaugh thing, as we've discussed run-run-pass is more reaction than question of strategy. If it looks like this year's offense, with less under center, and it's good, the spread revolution will have arrived. This year's offense, at least the times I sat to break down the film, rarely suffered from a lack of diversity off offensive concepts. It had plenty, and often modern ones. They just we're being run well. 
Pick something, run it well with good talent, that's always key.

[Mdot21]

Astonishingly now sounds like Pep Hamilton is staying put and taking a demotion to QB coach. 

He was told to find an NFL job. No one wanted him in the NFL so he’s staying put. Instead of having the stones to fire him, Harbaugh is letting one of his buddies stay on staff and collect $1.2+ million to coach QBs. Jesus f’ing Christ.

[Anonymous Coward]

You misunderstand me, these quotes are not too dramatic to believe. They are not that way because UM already runs a modest amount of "spread" stuff, as that word is kinda meaningless at this point. And Michigan has some RPOs in their package.
I know, I know, this is my hobby horse, but we put so much on design and play-calling, when what we're really talking about it effectiveness. And these are much less tightly linked than we imagine. Technique, finer points of coaching and just playing better matter far more than having a third WR out there all the time.
Using the Bama offense as a comparison point for anything isn't all that useful. Their third-leading rusher might be the first back taken in the draft. They have five receivers ranked ahead of anyone Mich has but DPJ, and have a very rare QB. Garbage time started in the second quarter much of the season.
Penn State is a more interesting comparison. I don't know if they fully gave themselves to the RPO lifestyle, but they have the numbers of a team that did. They didn't run the ball much. The thing with RPOs is the defense tells you when you run and when you pass. Penn State also had the oddity it wasn't that efficent but was hilariously good at big plays. If they go that route and struggle, I wonder when we hear, "Why aren't they running it more?"
In the end, I worry we'll see what we want to see. If the offense is running spread and RPOs and isn't good, we'll see it as a Harbaugh thing, as we've discussed run-run-pass is more reaction than question of strategy. If it looks like this year's offense, with less under center, and it's good, the spread revolution will have arrived. This year's offense, at least the times I sat to break down the film, rarely suffered from a lack of diversity off offensive concepts. It had plenty, and often modern ones. They just we're being run well.
Pick something, run it well with good talent, that's always key.

That's fair. I'm an amateur but accept and respect the nuance. Rather than complain about play calls or scheme, I should have complained more broadly about an offense that doesn't work. Part of that is execution, but the 2018 squad had better cogs and a better-executing OL than the 2015 or 2016 editions. So it's not all offseason prep, execution and recruiting. Whether it's gameplan (drawn up during the week) or play choices (called up in the moment), I keep going back to the continuum of "un/predictability," which you may see as a popular (and conveniently vague) cop out. 

With lesser QBs and OLs, Harbaugh was lauded as unpredictable in 2015 and 2016. He used old school pieces (TEs and FBs) in unusual ways at unexpected times. It was effective enough to punch above their weight class. I didn't expect those specific wrinkles to last forever (defenses do catch on). But I did expect (a) new wrinkles to follow and (b) for the offense to become more effective as the OL did. Because (a) and (b) did not follow, giving full control to new blood is the right call ... as long as you select the right new blood.

[Anonymous Coward]

Astonishingly now sounds like Pep Hamilton is staying put and taking a demotion to QB coach.

He was told to find an NFL job. No one wanted him in the NFL so he’s staying put. Instead of having the stones to fire him, Harbaugh is letting one of his buddies stay on staff and collect $1.2+ million to coach QBs. Jesus f’ing Christ.

I don't care about the money. It is of no consequence. The AD and ticket prices are effectively refractory to an extra $1MM in expenses. My main thoughts are about recruiting, in-game effects, McDaniels, and the WRs/Gattis:
(1) this is a recruiting bummer. Michigan's QB recruiting has been acceptable under Pep, but he's otherwise dead weight in this department; McDaniels by comparison was a major boost
(2) I don't think this will impact the 2019 game days much at all if Gattis truly has control of O design and playcalling as we've been told
(3) I feel bad for McDaniels ... he finally made it, except "psych!"
(4) and I wonder about the WRs. Will they be coachless again, like in 2017, or is Gattis pulling double duty? There've been several recent OCs in CFB who've gone from all-star position coaches to sucky at both that position and coordinating because they were apparently spread too thin (Drevno and Warinner are immediate examples). Is that risk in play for Gattis from day one? Seems dumb if so. 

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/GoBlueBrooks/status/1091777884065316865?s=19

[Anonymous Coward]

Evans underperformed in 2018, but the offense had been shifting away from his strengths. Hopefully he navigates whatever this is correctly because the new offfense could really be his jam. And it'll certainly be Charbonnet's. As for Turner, I really like him as a poor man's Mike Hart (a compliment) but am not clear on how he fits in with the offense going forward.

[Mdot21]

https://twitter.com/GoBlueBrooks/status/1091777884065316865?s=19

sucks. hopefully he works it out and gets back with the team.
this shift of offensive philosophy with Gattis now in charge- if true- and I'm starting to believe it is- benefits Chris Evans most outside of those WR's. Evans has a real shot to become something special in this type of offense. Won't have that shot though if he's in hot water off the field.

[Anonymous Coward]

I don't care about the money. It is of no consequence. The AD and ticket prices are effectively refractory to an extra $1MM in expenses. My main thoughts are about recruiting, in-game effects, McDaniels, and the WRs/Gattis:
(1) this is a recruiting bummer. Michigan's QB recruiting has been acceptable under Pep, but he's otherwise dead weight in this department; McDaniels by comparison was a major boost
(2) I don't think this will impact the 2019 game days much at all if Gattis truly has control of O design and playcalling as we've been told
(3) I feel bad for McDaniels ... he finally made it, except "psych!"
(4) and I wonder about the WRs. Will they be coachless again, like in 2017, or is Gattis pulling double duty? There've been several recent OCs in CFB who've gone from all-star position coaches to sucky at both that position and coordinating because they were apparently spread too thin (Drevno and Warinner are immediate examples). Is that risk in play for Gattis from day one? Seems dumb if so.

And just like that, Pep Hamilton is extricated from the premises. Wow.
Regarding the above, numbers 1/2/3 are now fully resolved. But #4 lives on because McDaniels will be QB coach (that, not WRs, is his background).
So now the "transition being on" thing gets another few increments. And recruiting is guaranteed to boost.