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Topic: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions

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FearlessF

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #196 on: August 23, 2019, 01:05:08 PM »
we all know that answer
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FearlessF

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #197 on: August 23, 2019, 01:07:27 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 23, 2019, 11:49:34 AM
Baylor was as well.  ELA's statement is still correct if we alter it slightly to either:
  • "No 1-loss P5 CG winner has ever been left out." or
  • "No 1-loss outright P5 Champion has ever been left out." 


It would be a REALLY interesting decision for the Committee for that last slot but I think they would go with Utah for a few reasons:
  • No 1-loss P5 CG winner has ever been left out. 
  • While Utah's SoS is shaky, Clemson's isn't substantially better. 


I see that is really close so I think that the P5 Championship should be the difference. 
I think it should be the difference, but I think the committee goes with Clemson because of name recognition and last season's championship
more eyeballs for the first round of the playoff
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ELA

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #198 on: August 23, 2019, 02:08:06 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on August 23, 2019, 12:45:46 PM
i think it might be before that.

in the nov 17 poll, bama and texas had just lost their 2nd game, and uf was just 1 spot ahead utah with 2 losses already. i could see utah jumping all them that week, putting them 10th (or 9th if you jump oregon too)

then the next week (2 weeks really, either work) aTm loses their 2nd and 3rd games, so that's 9th (8th if oregon)

then next week osu and wisc both lose 2nd, so up to 7th (6th). i think at this point would be the best point to jump oregon. now the ccg is assured, basically makes the paccg a play in between #5 and #6.

then the poll after the paccg after beating top5 wash in a revenge game gets them into top4 over clemson, with the conf title being the trump card.
Cincinnati probably has a better resume than Utah at that point.  Win over UCF, lone loss on the road to OSU.
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ELA

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #199 on: August 23, 2019, 02:18:52 PM »
Seems like the bulk think it would be Utah, so ok, we'll go with that
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rolltidefan

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #200 on: August 23, 2019, 02:32:46 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 23, 2019, 02:08:06 PM
Cincinnati probably has a better resume than Utah at that point.  Win over UCF, lone loss on the road to OSU.
 i wouldn't think bama's, uf's and ut's is that great either though.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #201 on: August 23, 2019, 04:01:04 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on August 23, 2019, 02:32:46 PM
i wouldn't think bama's, uf's and ut's is that great either though.
It is worse for Clemson once aTm loses three straight.  

That is the biggest reason that I think in this situation the committee would pick Utah over Clemson.  Per @ELA 's final poll both Clemson and Utah went 1-1 against the ONLY two ranked teams that they played.  Compare to:
  • #9 Ohio State played five:  #12 M, #14 PSU, #16 UW twice, #18 Cincy
  • #12 Michigan played four:  #9 tOSU, #14 PSU, #16 UW, #23 ND
  • #14 PSU played two:  #9 tOSU, #12 M
  • #16 UW played three:  #9 tOSU twice, #12 M


I think the committee would be eager to penalize Utah for their weak OOC but they can't do that without rewarding Clemson for theirs.  That leaves them in a box where they have two teams with similar schedules and one is a P5 Champ while the other isn't.  

All of this reminded me of another 1-loss P5 CG winner that did get left out, Ohio State in 2018 was a 12-1 B1G Champion and got left out.  However, they were left out in favor of other P5 CG winners with zero or one losses whose losses weren't so bad.  
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CWSooner

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #202 on: August 23, 2019, 04:47:31 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 23, 2019, 12:54:11 PM
What gets more eyeballs?  A Syracuse-Utah CFP game or a Bama-Clemson NY6-non CFP game?
Ordinarily, I would think Bama-Clemson.  But there is some Bama-Clemson fatigue right now, maybe enough to make people more interested in Syracuse-Utah.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #203 on: August 23, 2019, 05:22:13 PM »
UGA plays A&M in Athens, not Atlanta ...
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ELA

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #204 on: August 23, 2019, 05:35:24 PM »
DECEMBER 20
BAHAMASLouisiana Tech (8-4) vs. Northern Illinois (7-5)
FRISCONorth Texas (8-4) vs. SMU (6-6)
DECEMBER 21
NEW MEXICOFlorida Atlantic (9-4) vs. Wyoming (6-6)
CUREArkansas State (7-5) vs. Houston (6-7)*
BOCA RATONBuffalo (12-1) vs. Tulane (6-6)
CARMELLIAAppalachian State (10-2) vs. Toledo (8-5)
LAS VEGASUtah State (9-4) vs. Southern Miss (6-6)
NEW ORLEANSTroy (12-1) vs. Marshall (8-4)
DECEMBER 23
GASPARILLADuke (6-6) vs. Temple (8-4)
DECEMBER 24
HAWAIIHawaii (9-4) vs. BYU (6-6)
DECEMBER 26
INDEPENDENCEVirginia Tech (7-5) vs. South Florida (8-4)
QUICK LANEMICHIGAN STATE (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)
DECEMBER 27
MILITARYWake Forest (7-5) vs. Memphis (7-5)
PINSTRIPEVirginia (9-3) vs. PURDUE (8-4)
TEXASOklahoma State (7-5) vs. Auburn (6-6)
HOLIDAY#16 WISCONSIN (10-3) vs. Stanford (8-4)
CHEEZ-ITMINNESOTA (7-5) vs. Texas Tech (6-6)
DECEMBER 28
CAMPING WORLD#17 Iowa State (10-3) vs. #23 Notre Dame (9-3)
COTTON#10 Washington (11-2) vs. #15 Fresno State (13-0)
PEACH (CFP)#1 Syracuse (13-0) vs. #4 Utah (12-1)
FIESTA (CFP)#2 Oklahoma (12-1) vs. #3 Georgia (12-1)
DECEMBER 30
FIRST RESPONDERTCU (6-6) vs. UAB (11-2)
MUSIC CITY#24 Missouri (9-3) vs. Miami (9-4)
REDBOXIOWA (8-4) vs. Washington State (8-4)
ORANGE#5 Clemson (11-1) vs. #8 Alabama (10-2)
DECEMBER 31
BELK#21 Kentucky (9-3) vs. Florida State (7-5)
SUNBoston College (8-4) vs. California (7-5)
LIBERTYBaylor (7-5) vs. Tennessee (6-6)
ARIZONAFIU (7-5) vs. UL Monroe (7-5)
ALAMOArizona State (8-4) vs. West Virginia (8-4)
JANUARY 1
OUTBACK#14 PENN STATE (10-2) vs. #19 Texas A&M (9-4)
CITRUS#12 MICHIGAN (10-2) vs. #13 Mississippi State (10-2)
ROSE#6 Oregon (11-1) vs. #9 OHIO STATE (11-2)
SUGAR#7 Florida (10-2) vs. #11 Texas (10-2)
JANUARY 2
BIRMINGHAM#22 Central Florida (11-1) vs. #25 Army (12-1)
GATOR#20 LSU (9-3) vs. NORTHWESTERN (9-3)
JANUARY 3
POTATOBoise State (10-2) vs. Ohio (9-3)
JANUARY 4
ARMED FORCES#18 Cincinnati (12-1) vs. NEBRASKA (7-5)
JANUARY 6
ALABAMAGeorgia Southern (8-4) vs. Western Michigan (7-5)


* - Houston gets a waiver for being a 6-6 CCG loser








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ELA

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #205 on: August 23, 2019, 05:35:55 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 23, 2019, 05:22:13 PM
UGA plays A&M in Athens, not Atlanta ...
They play them in both
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CWSooner

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #206 on: August 23, 2019, 07:07:45 PM »
This is great stuff, ELA!  :c017:
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FearlessF

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #207 on: August 23, 2019, 07:10:58 PM »
yes, yes it is

I like the idear of the Huskers playing a bowl game after the first of the year

gives the coaching staff extra time to prepare

great staffs make good use of the time

and playing a one loss top 20 ranked team would be a great challenge
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ELA

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #208 on: August 23, 2019, 08:32:34 PM »
Quote from: CWSooner on August 23, 2019, 07:07:45 PM
This is great stuff, ELA!  :c017:
I enjoy doing it.  Look forward to it each year.  Not that it was a bold pick, but it ended with Clemson beating Alabama in the championship last year.  Granted I think it also had Wisconsin beating MSU to win the Big Ten title, and reach the CFP, along with Washington(?)
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #209 on: August 24, 2019, 08:05:53 AM »
Yes, ELA, thank you for doing this each year. I enjoy it and this year I also learned a little more about the B1G tiebreakers. 
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