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Topic: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
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ELA · « **Reply #182 on:** August 23, 2019, 10:36:53 AM »

WEEK 15
Friday, December 6

#10 Utah d. #5 Washington

Saturday, December 7
ESPN College Gameday, live from Atlanta, GA
#4 Georgia 31, #16 Texas A&M 30

#1 Syracuse d. Miami
#3 Oklahoma d. #15 Iowa State
#12 OHIO STATE d. #14 WISCONSIN
#18 Fresno State d. Utah State
#20 Cincinnati d. Houston

Buffalo d. Toledo
Troy d. UL Monroe
UAB d. Florida Atlantic

Saturday, December 14

#24 Army d. Navy

ELA · « **Reply #183 on:** August 23, 2019, 10:42:16 AM »

ACC
ATLANTIC

Syracuse (8-0) 13-0
Clemson (7-1) 11-1
Boston College (5-3) 8-4
Florida State (4-4) 7-5
Wake Forest (4-4) 7-5
NC State (2-6) 5-7
Louisville (0-8) 2-10

COASTAL

Miami (6-2) 9-4
Virginia (6-2) 9-3
Virginia Tech (4-4) 7-5
Duke (4-4) 6-6
Pittsburgh (4-4) 6-6
Georgia Tech (3-5) 5-7
North Carolina (0-8) 1-11

BIG XII

Oklahoma (8-1) 12-1
Iowa State (7-2) 10-3
Texas (7-2) 10-2
West Virginia (6-3) 8-4
Baylor (4-5) 7-5
Oklahoma State (4-5) 7-5
TCU (4-5) 6-6
Texas Tech (4-5) 6-6
Kansas State (1-8) 3-9
Kansas (0-9) 2-10

BIG TEN
EAST

Ohio State (7-2) 11-2
Michigan (7-2) 10-2
Penn State (7-2) 10-2
Michigan State (4-5) 7-5
Maryland (2-7) 3-9
Indiana (1-8) 4-8
Rutgers (0-9) 2-10

WEST

Wisconsin (7-2) 10-3
Northwestern (7-2) 9-3
Iowa (6-3) 8-4
Purdue (5-4) 8-4
Minnesota (5-4) 7-5
Nebraska (4-5) 7-5
Illinois (1-8) 4-8

PAC 12
NORTH

Washington (8-1) 11-2
Oregon (8-1) 11-1
Stanford (6-3) 8-4
Washington State (5-4) 8-4
California (4-5) 7-5
Oregon State (0-9) 1-11

SOUTH

Utah (8-1) 12-1
Arizona State (6-3) 8-4
USC (3-6) 3-9
Arizona (2-7) 4-8
Colorado (2-7) 4-8
UCLA (2-7) 3-9

SEC
EAST

Georgia (7-1) 12-1
Florida (6-2) 10-2
Kentucky (5-3) 9-3
Missouri (5-3) 9-3
Tennessee (2-6) 6-6
South Carolina (2-6) 5-7
Vanderbilt (1-7) 4-8

WEST

Texas A&M (6-2) 9-4
Alabama (6-2) 10-2
Mississippi State (6-2) 10-2
LSU (6-2) 9-3
Auburn (3-5) 6-6
Ole Miss (1-7) 3-9
Arkansas (0-8) 4-8

AMERICAN
EAST

Cincinnati (8-0) 12-1
Central Florida (7-1) 11-1
South Florida (6-2) 8-4
Temple (5-3) 8-4
East Carolina (2-6) 5-7
Connecticut (1-7) 2-10

WEST

Houston (5-3) 6-7
Memphis (4-4) 7-5
SMU (4-4) 6-6
Tulane (4-4) 6-6
Navy (1-7) 3-8
Tulsa (1-7) 2-10

CONFERENCE USA
EAST

Florida Atlantic (8-0) 9-4
Marshall (6-2) 8-4
FIU (5-3) 7-5
Middle Tennessee (5-3) 6-6
Old Dominion (2-6) 3-9
Western Kentucky (2-6) 3-9
Charlotte (0-8) 2-10

WEST

UAB (7-1) 11-2
Louisiana Tech (6-2) 8-4
North Texas (6-2) 8-4
Southern Miss (5-3) 6-6
UTEP (3-5) 4-8
UTSA (1-7) 2-10
Rice (0-8) 0-12

MID-AMERICAN
EAST

Buffalo (8-0) 12-1
Ohio (7-1) 9-3
Kent State (3-5) 4-8
Bowling Green (2-6) 3-9
Miami(Ohio) (2-6) 3-9
Akron (2-6) 2-10

WEST

Toledo (6-2) 8-5
Northern Illinois (6-2) 7-5
Western Michigan (5-3) 7-5
Ball State (3-5) 5-7
Central Michigan (2-6) 4-8
Eastern Michigan (2-6) 3-9

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN

Utah State (7-1) 9-4
Boise State (7-1) 10-2
Wyoming (4-4) 6-6
Air Force (4-4) 5-7
New Mexico (1-7) 3-9
Colorado State (0-8) 1-11

WEST

Fresno State (8-0) 13-0
Hawaii (6-2) 9-4
Nevada (3-5) 5-7
San Diego State (3-5) 5-7
UNLV (3-5) 5-7
San Jose State (2-6) 4-8

SUN BELT
EAST

Troy (8-0) 12-1
Appalachian State (7-1) 10-2
Georgia Southern (6-2) 8-4
Coastal Carolina (3-5) 6-6
Georgia State (1-7) 2-10

WEST

UL Monroe (5-3) 7-6
Arkansas State (5-3) 7-5
UL Lafayette (2-6) 4-8
South Alabama (2-6) 3-9
Texas State (1-7) 2-10

INDEPENDENTS

Army (12-1)
Notre Dame (9-3)
BYU (6-6)
Liberty (5-7)
Massachusetts (3-9)
NM State (3-9)

ELA · « **Reply #184 on:** August 23, 2019, 10:48:05 AM »

DECEMBER 8/15

Syracuse (13-0)
Oklahoma (12-1)
Clemson (11-1)
Georgia (12-1)
Utah (12-1)
Oregon (11-1)
Florida (10-2)
Alabama (10-2)
OHIO STATE (11-2)
Washington (11-2)
Texas (10-2)
MICHIGAN (10-2)
Mississippi State (10-2)
PENN STATE (10-2)
Fresno State (13-0)
WISCONSIN (10-3)
Iowa State (10-3)
Cincinnati (12-1)
Texas A&M (9-4)
LSU (9-3)
Kentucky (9-3)
Central Florida (11-1)
Notre Dame (9-3)
Missouri (9-3)
Army (12-1)

ELA · « **Reply #185 on:** August 23, 2019, 10:51:47 AM »

Man, this was tough. I'll take input, to see if anyone thinks this would line up differently. And I don't mind retroactive changes.

You had Syracuse - Clemson - Oklahoma - Georgia going into the CCGs, with 1 loss Utah down at #10

Syracuse, Oklahoma, Georgia and Utah all won, Clemson didn't play in theirs. Would Clemson drop from #2 to #5, with Utah jumping all the way up to #4 based on their CCG win? Would they have been higher than #10 at 11-1? They had previously played one game against a ranked team (@Washington), and lost, before winning the rematch. Their best wins had been over 8-4 Washington State or 8-4 Arizona State, both at home.

I don't think a 1 loss Power 5 champion has ever been left out.

FearlessF · « **Reply #186 on:** August 23, 2019, 11:04:43 AM »

that would be tough for the committee - we know the committee would rather include Clemson, but the PAC would raise heck if left out

I would put Utah in over Clemson, I'd also hope that the committee would do the same, but I'm not so sure

fezzador · « **Reply #187 on:** August 23, 2019, 11:12:18 AM »

Quote from: ELA on August 23, 2019, 10:51:47 AM

Man, this was tough. I'll take input, to see if anyone thinks this would line up differently. And I don't mind retroactive changes.

You had Syracuse - Clemson - Oklahoma - Georgia going into the CCGs, with 1 loss Utah down at #10

Syracuse, Oklahoma, Georgia and Utah all won, Clemson didn't play in theirs. Would Clemson drop from #2 to #5, with Utah jumping all the way up to #4 based on their CCG win? Would they have been higher than #10 at 11-1? They had previously played one game against a ranked team (@Washington), and lost, before winning the rematch. Their best wins had been over 8-4 Washington State or 8-4 Arizona State, both at home.

I don't think a 1 loss Power 5 champion has ever been left out.

TCU was an 11-1 Big 12 co-champ in 2014.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #188 on:** August 23, 2019, 11:49:34 AM »

Quote from: fezzador on August 23, 2019, 11:12:18 AM

TCU was an 11-1 Big 12 co-champ in 2014.

Baylor was as well. ELA's statement is still correct if we alter it slightly to either:

"No 1-loss P5 CG winner has ever been left out." or
"No 1-loss outright P5 Champion has ever been left out."

It would be a REALLY interesting decision for the Committee for that last slot but I think they would go with Utah for a few reasons:

No 1-loss P5 CG winner has ever been left out.
While Utah's SoS is shaky, Clemson's isn't substantially better.

I made this chart based on ELA's projections to compare Clemson's and Utah's SoS:

They are each 1-1 against ranked teams. Clemson beat #19 and lost to #1 while Utah went 1-1 against #10. That seems like about a wash.

Against teams above .500 Clemson went 4-1 while Utah went 5-1. Utah also beat a .500 team.

I see that is really close so I think that the P5 Championship should be the difference.

ELA · « **Reply #189 on:** August 23, 2019, 11:54:05 AM »

Yeah, I kind of agree, and this is where the week to week poll kind of hurts the committee. If they just unveiled a Final 4 of Syracuse, Oklahoma, Georgia, Utah, I don't think that would raise as much of an issue as dropping Clemson from #2 to #5, and raising Utah from #10 to #4

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #190 on:** August 23, 2019, 12:00:40 PM »

Quote from: ELA on August 23, 2019, 11:54:05 AM

Yeah, I kind of agree, and this is where the week to week poll kind of hurts the committee. If they just unveiled a Final 4 of Syracuse, Oklahoma, Georgia, Utah, I don't think that would raise as much of an issue as dropping Clemson from #2 to #5, and raising Utah from #10 to #4

It is possible that the committee would see that train coming down the tracks and move Utah up a few spots in the December 1 rankings. In that ranking you had the Utes at #10 behind three 10-2 teams (UF, Bama, Tx). Utah at that point would be 11-1 with a CG to go while UF, Bama, and Tx would be 10-2 and done.

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #191 on:** August 23, 2019, 12:03:14 PM »

As always ELA, thank you for doing this. Very Cool!

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #192 on:** August 23, 2019, 12:06:52 PM »

The Clemson/Utah decision impacts the B1G in several ways.

First, in this scenario tOSU is the B1G Champion and they obviously aren't going to the CFP so they are headed to the Rose Bowl. My understanding of the rules is that IF Utah gets a CFP bid then the PAC's Rose Bowl representative would be their next highest ranked team, #6 Oregon. So pending the Utah/Clemson decision the Buckeyes will face either the Utes or the Huskies in Pasadena.

Would Michigan get a NY6 bowl? They are #12 and #15 Fresno State has to get one as the highest ranked G5 Champion so I don't think so but I could be reading that wrong. My understanding is that the 12 slots would go to the top-11 teams and Fresno State so the Wolverines would, in this scenario, finally beat Ohio State only to lose the B1G-E on an obscure tiebreaker then fall all the way down to the Citrus Bowl because they missed a NY6 bowl by one slot in the rankings, right?

ELA · « **Reply #193 on:** August 23, 2019, 12:11:59 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 23, 2019, 12:06:52 PM

Would Michigan get a NY6 bowl? They are #12 and #15 Fresno State has to get one as the highest ranked G5 Champion so I don't think so but I could be reading that wrong. My understanding is that the 12 slots would go to the top-11 teams and Fresno State so the Wolverines would, in this scenario, finally beat Ohio State only to lose the B1G-E on an obscure tiebreaker then fall all the way down to the Citrus Bowl because they missed a NY6 bowl by one slot in the rankings, right?

I'm not sure, because of the Orange Bowl tie-in, they might still get to go there as the 2nd best Big Ten team, since it isn't a semifinal this year?

rolltidefan · « **Reply #194 on:** August 23, 2019, 12:45:46 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 23, 2019, 12:00:40 PM

It is possible that the committee would see that train coming down the tracks and move Utah up a few spots in the December 1 rankings. In that ranking you had the Utes at #10 behind three 10-2 teams (UF, Bama, Tx). Utah at that point would be 11-1 with a CG to go while UF, Bama, and Tx would be 10-2 and done.

i think it might be before that.

in the nov 17 poll, bama and texas had just lost their 2nd game, and uf was just 1 spot ahead utah with 2 losses already. i could see utah jumping all them that week, putting them 10th (or 9th if you jump oregon too)

then the next week (2 weeks really, either work) aTm loses their 2nd and 3rd games, so that's 9th (8th if oregon)

then next week osu and wisc both lose 2nd, so up to 7th (6th). i think at this point would be the best point to jump oregon. now the ccg is assured, basically makes the paccg a play in between #5 and #6.

then the poll after the paccg after beating top5 wash in a revenge game gets them into top4 over clemson, with the conf title being the trump card.

ELA · « **Reply #195 on:** August 23, 2019, 12:54:11 PM »

What gets more eyeballs? A Syracuse-Utah CFP game or a Bama-Clemson NY6-non CFP game?

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Topic: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions

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