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Topic: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions
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FearlessF · « **Reply #154 on:** August 21, 2019, 11:55:09 AM »

Quote from: ELA on August 21, 2019, 11:24:50 AM

I'm not down on Nebraska's overall trajectory, I just think the hype is a year ahead of schedule. I had them in the low 40s in my countdown I believe, I think aside from the corners, the defense has a chance to actually be worse than last year.

as you know, I'm not putting the Huskers in the top 25, so your low 40's is fine by me

the defense will be better this year, just not sure how much
Frost is the only guy not named Osborne that could survive back to back 4-8 seasons in Lincoln

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #155 on:** August 21, 2019, 12:23:40 PM »

Quote from: rolltidefan on August 21, 2019, 11:50:24 AM

For sure practically but depending on LSU and MSU loses maybe mathematically as well. aTm might have won it outright already, though I don’t think so. I think they still have LSU to play, which if they lose last 2 and LSU wins last 2 could give LSU and maybe MSU and/or bama life. But seriously doubtful.
Just looked and aTm has uga and LSU left so could definitely be 2 losses there.
aTm beat both bama and MSU.
Bama is definitely out. Has 2 secw losses while aTm even with 2 losses 1 would be east.
Not sure on LSU or MSU.

Here is what I have:

So it is aTm's to lose, but they have two very tough road games to close the season so they very well could lose both.

Here is what I have:
If aTm wins either of their last two games, they win the SEC-W outright.

If aTm loses both they would still win a two-way tie with either Bama or MissSt or a three way tie with Bama and MissSt.

The ONLY way for it to get more complicated is if:

LSU beats Arkansas, and
UGA beats aTm, and
LSU beats aTm.

If all three of those things happen then LSU and aTm would be tied atop the final SEC-W standings along with either Bama or MissSt or both. Thus, there are four potential SEC-W ties:

LSU and aTm: LSU wins based on H2H: LSU goes to SECCG
LSU, aTm, and MissSt: (all 1-1 H2H2H: LSU>aTm>MissSt>LSU): aTm wins based on Divisional Record because their other loss was to an SEC-E team: aTm goes to SECCG
LSU, aTm, and Bama: (all 1-1 H2H2H: LSU>aTm>Bama>LSU): aTm wins based on Divisional Record because their other loss was to an SEC-E team: aTm goes to SECCG
LSU, aTm, MissSt, and Bama: (aTm and MissSt beat the other two based on 4-way H2H2H2H then aTm beats MissSt based on H2H): aTm goes to SECCG

I got the tiebreaker from a site called Saturdaydownsouth, I figure they probably know what they are talking about.

Bottom line, in this hypothetical aTm is going to the SECCG unless all of the following things happen:

They lose to UGA, and
They lose to LSU, and
Auburn beats Bama, and
OleMiss beats MissSt, and
LSU beats Arkansas

If all five of those things happen then LSU goes to Atlanta. Bama and MissSt are mathematically eliminated.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #156 on:** August 21, 2019, 01:10:46 PM »

Here is the B1G-E in @ELA 's scenario:

The tOSU/PSU winner can do no worse than 7-2 and would obviously have the tiebreaker over the tOSU/PSU loser.

Penn State would clinch with a win in Columbus because they would be 7-1 and have H2H over both tOSU and M.

Michigan has to win their last two games to get into the mix and even then it only matters if tOSU beats PSU (So you Wolverine fans have to root for Ohio State in the PSU game).

If PSU loses in Columbus then it gets interesting. The new standings would be:

7-1 tOSU
6-2 PSU
6-2 OR 5-3 M

If Ohio State beats PSU AND M loses in Bloomington (unlikely I know but I'm doing mathematical possibilities here so everything is on the table) then tOSU clinches because the worst they could do is a tie with PSU and they would win that tie.

We get a three-way tie if all of the following things happen:

tOSU beats PSU, and
M beats IU, and
PSU beats Rutgers, and
M beats tOSU

In that case tOSU, M, and PSU all finish 7-2 and they would all be 1-1 H2H2H and they would all be 5-1 in the Division.

Here is the B1G Tiebreaker from the B1G website. The procedure for a tie involving three or more teams is as follows with the stipulation that if only two teams remain after any step or sub-step, the H2H winner between those two shall go to Indianapolis:

H2H: Tied in this case, all 1-1.
Divisoinal Record: Tied in this case, all 5-1.
Record against the next highest placed team in the division, then the next, then the next, etc: Tied in this case, all 1-0 against all of the others.
Record against all common conference opponents: Tied in this case, the only conference opponents common to all three are the other four members of the B1G-E and all three teams are 4-0 against them.
Conference Record of non-divisional conference opponents. See Below
Record against the best team in the other division, then the next, etc. NOTE that 1-0 IS better than 0-0: See Below
Overall winning percentage excluding exempted games: Tied in this case because they all went 3-0 OOC and none of them had any exempted games.
Random Draw

Tiebreaker #5, record of non-divisional conference opponents:
At this point in @ELA 's scenario tOSU and PSU are currently tied with Michigan just one game behind:

Two of Michigan's non-divisional opponents have yet to play each other (IL@IA) so Michigan is effectively at 13-10 with four games to go while tOSU and PSU are 13-8 with six games to go.

Games that matter to all three:

Iowa at Nebraska: tOSU wants UNL, PSU and M want IA
Purdue at Wisconsin: PSU wants PU, tOSU and M want UW
Wisconsin at Minnesota: PSU wants MN, tOSU and M want UW

Games that matter to two of the three:

Wisconsin at Minnesota: tOSU wants UW, PSU wants MN
Minnesota at Northwestern: tOSU wants NU, PSU wants MN
Northwestern at Illinois: tOSU wants NU, M wants IL
Illinois at Iowa: PSU wants IL, M gets a W and an L either way

This tiebreaker is obviously TBD as there are a lot of moving parts so anyone could win.

Tiebreaker #6, record against the best team in the other division:
Wisconsin is #1 right now at 6-1 which is GREAT for Ohio State because in this scenario the Buckeyes beat the Badgers and the Badgers beat the Wolverines. However, the Buckeyes lost to Northwestern and the Wildcats are still in the B1G-W race.

Like #5, this one is TBD but it looks like PSU can't win on this and Ohio State is in great shape as long as UW doesn't lose their last two games.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #157 on:** August 21, 2019, 02:51:14 PM »

My GUESS here, going out on a limb, is that there could be some errors and the season doesn't play out exactly like this. I COULD be wrong of course.

FearlessF · « **Reply #158 on:** August 21, 2019, 02:56:52 PM »

Has ELA ever hit it 100%???

if not, what's the highest percentage in the past 5 seasons?

How about the highest percentage in the B1G?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #159 on:** August 21, 2019, 03:07:21 PM »

I think in most years he misses at most one game, or three, or, well, more than that.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #160 on:** August 21, 2019, 04:06:01 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2019, 02:51:14 PM

My GUESS here, going out on a limb, is that there could be some errors and the season doesn't play out exactly like this. I COULD be wrong of course.

I get that, but I'm still interested in how the tiebreakers would work both because I want to know for this scenario and because they tend to become important in at least a few of the P5 conferences late in each season.

Seemingly minute differences matter a LOT in those cases. For example, in my post above I reviewed the B1G-E. IN @ELA 's scenario it appears that tOSU, PSU, and Michigan could be headed for a 3-way tie that would end up being resolved by tiebreaker #5, Conference Record of non-divisional opponents.

Switching the order of tiebreaker #5 and tiebreaker #6 (record against the best team in the other division) would seem to be a minute change but when a scenario such as this does play out in real life some day it would be a REALLY big deal.

Tiebreaker #5 is a VERY close call. PSU's, tOSU's, and Michigan's B1G-W opponents are within one game of each other with six games to play so anything can happen there. Tiebreaker #6 is not nearly that close. Against the top teams:

6-1 Wisconsin: tOSU is 1-0, Michigan is 0-1, Penn State is 0-0.
5-2 Northwestern: tOSU is 0-1, Michigan and Penn State are 0-0.
5-2 Iowa: Michigan is 1-0, PSU is 0-1, tOSU is 0-0.
4-3 Minnesota: PSU is 1-0, tOSU and Michigan are 0-0.
4-3 Purdue: PSU is 1-0, tOSU and Michigan are 0-0.

Unless Wisconsin loses out (vPU, @MN) they will be at least tied for first in the B1G-W and that is a huge and nearly insurmountable obstacle for the Wolverines and Nittany Lions in the event of a 3-way tie.

I guess that is why this stuff interests me. The order of the fifth and sixth tiebreakers in the B1G is pretty insignificant until you get to late November and realize that there is a decent chance that your team will be in a tie for which the first four tiebreakers are no help.

ELA · « **Reply #161 on:** August 21, 2019, 04:29:36 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2019, 02:56:52 PM

Has ELA ever hit it 100%???

if not, what's the highest percentage in the past 5 seasons?

How about the highest percentage in the B1G?

My success rate would have me in the MLB HOF

Anonymous Coward · « **Reply #162 on:** August 21, 2019, 04:40:08 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2019, 01:10:46 PM

H2H: Tied in this case, all 1-1.
Divisoinal Record: Tied in this case, all 5-1.
Record against the next highest placed team in the division, then the next, then the next, etc: Tied in this case, all 1-0 against all of the others.
Record against all common conference opponents: Tied in this case, the only conference opponents common to all three are the other four members of the B1G-E and all three teams are 4-0 against them.
Conference Record of non-divisional conference opponents. See Below
Record against the best team in the other division, then the next, etc. NOTE that 1-0 IS better than 0-0: See Below
Overall winning percentage excluding exempted games: Tied in this case because they all went 3-0 OOC and none of them had any exempted games.
Random Draw

I have a lot of issues with whoever wrote these tie breakers. They are:

First, ties should be defined by division record (rather than making division record a tiebreaker), perhaps making conference record the #2 tiebreaker
If the tying teams were each 1-1 H2H2H and also had one other intradivisional loss each, what a bummer that tie breaker #3 is intended to go to the team with the WORST second loss
#5 is fine to me
Re: #6, again if it gets this far, the tie breaker goes to the team with the WORST extradivisional loss -- woofsville
#7 is fine insofar as it improves the odds of the champ being the most CoFoPO-attractive ... but that also makes the whole set of tiebreakers somewhat nonsensical, since TBs #3 and #6 have the opposite effect

rolltidefan · « **Reply #163 on:** August 21, 2019, 04:42:22 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2019, 02:56:52 PM

Has ELA ever hit it 100%???

if not, what's the highest percentage in the past 5 seasons?

How about the highest percentage in the B1G?

If he got anywhere near 100% he should drop everything and move to Vegas.

ELA · « **Reply #164 on:** August 21, 2019, 04:53:04 PM »

ACC
ATLANTIC

Syracuse (6-0) 10-0
Clemson (7-1) 10-1
Boston College (5-2) 8-2
Florida State (4-4) 7-4
Wake Forest (3-4) 6-4
NC State (1-5) 4-6
Louisville (0-7) 2-8

COASTAL

Miami (6-1) 8-2
Virginia (5-2) 7-3
Virginia Tech (3-3) 6-4
Duke (3-3) 5-5
Pittsburgh (3-3) 5-5
Georgia Tech (2-5) 4-6
North Carolina (0-8) 0-10

BIG XII

Oklahoma (6-1) 9-1
Iowa State (5-2) 8-2
Texas (5-2) 8-2
West Virginia (5-2) 7-3
Oklahoma State (4-3) 7-3
Baylor (3-4) 6-4
TCU (3-4) 5-5
Texas Tech (3-4) 5-5
Kansas State (1-6) 3-7
Kansas (0-7) 2-8

BIG TEN
EAST

Ohio State (6-1) 9-1
Penn State (6-1) 9-1
Michigan (5-2) 8-2
Michigan State (2-5) 5-5
Maryland (2-5) 3-7
Indiana (1-6) 4-6
Rutgers (0-7) 2-8

WEST

Wisconsin (6-1) 9-1
Iowa (5-2) 7-3
Northwestern (5-2) 7-3
Purdue (4-3) 7-3
Minnesota (4-3) 6-4
Nebraska (2-5) 5-5
Illinois (1-6) 4-6

PAC 12
NORTH

Oregon (6-1) 9-1
Washington (6-1) 9-1
Stanford (5-3) 6-4
Washington State (4-3) 7-3
California (3-4) 6-4
Oregon State (0-7) 1-9

SOUTH

Utah (6-1) 9-1
Arizona State (5-2) 7-3
Arizona (2-5) 4-6
Colorado (2-5) 4-6
UCLA (2-5) 3-7
USC (2-6) 2-9

SEC
EAST

Georgia (6-1) 9-1
Florida (6-2) 9-2
Kentucky (5-3) 7-3
Missouri (3-3) 7-3
South Carolina (2-6) 5-6
Tennessee (1-5) 5-5
Vanderbilt (1-6) 3-7

WEST

Texas A&M (6-0) 9-1
Alabama (5-2) 8-2
Mississippi State (5-2) 8-2
LSU (4-2) 7-3
Auburn (3-4) 5-5
Ole Miss (1-6) 3-8
Arkansas (0-6) 4-6

AMERICAN
EAST

Cincinnati (6-0) 9-1
Central Florida (5-1) 9-1
South Florida (5-1) 7-3
Temple (4-2) 7-3
Connecticut (1-5) 2-8
East Carolina (0-6) 3-7

WEST

Memphis (4-2) 7-3
Tulane (4-2) 6-4
Houston (3-3) 4-6
SMU (2-4) 4-6
Navy (1-5) 3-6
Tulsa (1-5) 2-8

CONFERENCE USA
EAST

Florida Atlantic (6-0) 7-3
FIU (5-2) 7-3
Marshall (4-2) 6-4
Middle Tennessee (3-3) 4-6
Western Kentucky (2-4) 3-7
Old Dominion (1-5) 2-8
Charlotte (0-6) 2-8

WEST

UAB (6-0) 9-1
Louisiana Tech (5-1) 7-3
North Texas (4-2) 6-4
Southern Miss (4-2) 5-5
UTEP (2-5) 3-7
UTSA (1-5) 2-8
Rice (0-6) 0-10

MID-AMERICAN
EAST

Buffalo (6-0) 9-1
Ohio (5-1) 7-3
Bowling Green (2-4) 3-7
Kent State (2-4) 3-7
Akron (2-4) 2-8
Miami(Ohio) (1-5) 2-8

WEST

Toledo (5-1) 7-3
Western Michigan (5-2) 7-4
Northern Illinois (4-2) 5-5
Ball State (2-4) 4-6
Central Michigan (2-5) 4-7
Eastern Michigan (1-5) 2-8

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN

Boise State (6-0) 9-1
Utah State (5-1) 7-3
Wyoming (3-3) 5-5
Air Force (3-4) 4-7
New Mexico (1-6) 3-8
Colorado State (0-6) 1-9

WEST

Fresno State (6-0) 10-0
Hawaii (5-2) 8-3
San Diego State (3-4) 5-5
Nevada (2-4) 4-6
San Jose State (2-4) 4-6
UNLV (2-4) 4-6

SUN BELT
EAST

Appalachian State (6-0) 9-1
Troy (6-0) 9-1
Georgia Southern (4-2) 6-4
Coastal Carolina (2-4) 5-5
Georgia State (0-6) 1-9

WEST

Arkansas State (4-2) 6-4
UL Monroe (4-2) 6-4
South Alabama (2-4) 3-7
UL Lafayette (1-5) 3-7
Texas State (1-5) 2-8

INDEPENDENTS

Army (10-1)
Notre Dame (8-2)
BYU (4-6)
Liberty (4-6)
Massachusetts (3-8)
NM State (2-8)

ELA · « **Reply #165 on:** August 21, 2019, 04:58:44 PM »

NOVEMBER 17

Syracuse (10-0)
Clemson (10-1)
Oklahoma (9-1)
Texas A&M (9-1)
Georgia (9-1)
OHIO STATE (9-1)
Washington (9-1)
WISCONSIN (9-1)
Oregon (9-1)
Florida (8-2)
Alabama (8-2)
Texas (8-2)
Utah (9-1)
PENN STATE (9-1)
Mississippi State (8-2)
MICHIGAN (8-2)
Notre Dame (8-2)
Iowa State (8-2)
Fresno State (10-0)
Boston College (8-2)
LSU (7-3)
Miami (8-2)
Cincinnati (9-1)
Central Florida (9-1)
Boise State (9-1)

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #166 on:** August 21, 2019, 05:15:19 PM »

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2019, 04:40:08 PM

I have a lot of issues with whoever wrote these tie breakers. They are:
First, ties should be defined by division record (rather than making division record a tiebreaker), perhaps making conference record the #2 tiebreaker
If the tying teams were each 1-1 H2H2H and also had one other intradivisional loss each, what a bummer that tie breaker #3 is intended to go to the team with the WORST second loss
#5 is fine to me
Re: #6, again if it gets this far, the tie breaker goes to the team with the WORST extradivisional loss -- woofsville
#7 is fine insofar as it improves the odds of the champ being the most CoFoPO-attractive ... but that also makes the whole set of tiebreakers somewhat nonsensical, since TBs #3 and #6 have the opposite effect

On your dislike for favoring the team with the worst loss, I don't disagree with you but I've found that most people disagree with us.

Back up and start with the usual first tiebreaker of H2H. This is almost always the favored first tiebreaker and everyone seems to like it. Now consider a tie between Ohio State and Michigan at _-1. This has happened before of course. The tiebreaker has been H2H and that effectively means that the team with the worst loss goes to the B1GCG (or previously the RoseBowl).

It happened just last year with Ohio State and Michigan. Both finished 8-1 in the Conference. Michigan's loss, as you may remember, was by a pretty substantial margin of 62-39 but the lost to a very good team that finished 8-1. Ohio State's loss was by a similarly substantial margin but it was to a team that finished 5-4. Michigan's loss was clearly better than Ohio State's. Should Michigan have gone to the B1GCG?

In 2016 the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions both finished 8-1. Ohio State's loss was about as good as a loss can be. It was by three points on the road to a very good team that finished 8-1 in the conference. Penn State's loss was MUCH worse. They got absolutely annihilated by a team that finished "only" 7-2 in the Conference. Should Ohio State have gone to the B1GCG?

In 2015 the Buckeyes and Spartans both finished 7-1. Ohio State's loss was by only three points and to a very good team that finished 7-1.  The Spartan's loss was similarly close but it was to a terrible team that finished 3-5 in the conference. Michigan State's loss was clearly worse than Ohio State's loss. Should Ohio State have gone to the B1GCG?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #167 on:** August 21, 2019, 05:25:41 PM »

The SEC had a 3 way tie in the East in something around 2007. Three teams were 6-2, all 5-1 in division, and each had beaten each other.

The tie breaker was the drop the lowest ranked team in the BCS and then use head to head.

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Topic: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions

FearlessF

Re: 2019 ELA Game by Game Predictions

medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

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FearlessF

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Cincydawg

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medinabuckeye1

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ELA

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Anonymous Coward

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rolltidefan

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ELA

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ELA

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medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

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