NOVEMBER 17
- Syracuse (10-0)
- Clemson (10-1)
- Oklahoma (9-1)
- Texas A&M (9-1)
- Georgia (9-1)
- OHIO STATE (9-1)
- Washington (9-1)
- WISCONSIN (9-1)
- Oregon (9-1)
- Florida (8-2)
- Alabama (8-2)
- Texas (8-2)
- Utah (9-1)
- PENN STATE (9-1)
- Mississippi State (8-2)
- MICHIGAN (8-2)
- Notre Dame (8-2)
- Iowa State (8-2)
- Fresno State (10-0)
- Boston College (8-2)
- LSU (7-3)
- Miami (8-2)
- Cincinnati (9-1)
- Central Florida (9-1)
- Boise State (9-1)
The CFP race is getting REALLY interesting in
@ELA 's scenario.
Clemson is #2 but they are also about to be eliminated from the ACCCG. They are 7-1 and done with ACC play (they finish with a bye then an OOC game at USC-e). All Syracuse has to do to get into the ACCCG is to win either of their last two games and their last two opponents (Lousiville and Wake) are a combined 3-11 in ACC games.
Clemson is 10-1/7-1 and their only remaining game is against a pretty weak (2-6/5-6) team that they should beat. Then what?
Clemson is almost certain to finish 11-1/7-1 but they are even more certain to miss the ACCCG. They have a nice win over #4 aTm but the only other ranked team on their schedule is #1 Syracuse to whom they lost. Also, aTm is about to play back-to-back road games against #5 UGA and #21 LSU so there is a good chance that Clemson's lone "quality win" is about to take a major hit. Worse, it is entirely possible that aTm could lose both the Georgia and LSU games and still make the SECCG and lose that as well. The Aggies are Clemson's ONLY quality win and if they finish was a 1-loss SEC Champion that is a big feather in Clemson's cap but they could finish as a 4-loss non-Champion and that obviously isn't a very good "best win" let alone a good "only quality win".
Playoff chase:
#1 Syracuse 10-0:
The Orange close with two ACC games that should be easy wins and if they win at least one of them they'll head to the ACCCG to face either #22 Miami or unranked 7-3 Virginia (UVA is already eliminated if they lost to Miami, I don't remember).
#2 Clemson 10-1:
The Tigers are #2 but they will probably only play one more game (@USCe) while most of the rest of the contenders will get three more opportunities to impress the committee. Additionally, as discussed above, their lone quality win is in serious jeopardy over these next few weeks. It is clearly still possible for them to make the CFP but that is by no means assured.
#3 Oklahoma 9-1:
The Sooners finish with two roughly .500 teams in the B12 and they should win those. Assuming they do, they'll head to the B12CG against #12 Texas, #18 ISU, or nr WVU.
#4 aTm 9-1:
The Aggies have the toughest remaining road with at #5 UGA then at #21 LSU then a likely SECCG against either #5 UGA again or #10 Florida.
#5 Georgia 9-1:
The Bulldogs host the Aggies in what will obviously be the Gameday Game of the Week this week then travel to Atlanta to take on their instate OOC rival GaTech next week. The Rambling wreck aren't very good so they should win that one easily. If Georgia beats aTm then they can stay in Atlanta after the Tech game because they'll be playing either aTm or LSU in the SECCG a week later.
#6 Ohio State 9-1:
The Buckeyes have a closing stretch that rivals aTm's. They host #14 PSU this week then travel to #16 Michigan next week. If they get through that unscathed #8 Wisconsin will likely be waiting in Indianapolis (Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue and Minnesota are all in contention for at least a share of the B1G-W).
#7 Washington 9-1:
The Huskies finish with two middling P12 teams (@Colorado, vsWSU) and they should win those. If they get to the P12CG they'll likely face #13 Utah. Their biggest obstacle might be SoS. Their OOC was BYU (4-6 per ELA), Hawaii, and an FCS team.
#8 Wisconsin 9-1:
The Badgers close by hosting Purdue and traveling to Minnesota which should be manageable. If they win at least one of those they'll head to Indianapolis where either #6 tOSU, #12 PSU, or #18 Michigan will be waiting.
#9 Oregon 9-1:
The Ducks finish in Tempe against a pretty good Sun Devil team then at home against a terrible OrSU. Their SoS is a little better than Washington because they played Auburn early but other than that it is comparable with the other two OOC opponents being Nevada and Montana.
If they get to the P12CG they'll likely face #13 Utah. #10 Florida 8-2:
The Gators finish by travelling to Mizzou then hosting the Seminoles. In past weeks Mizzou had an impressive looking record and in past years FSU was an impressive opponent but right now they are 7-3 and 7-4 respectively so Florida should win both games. The remaining game with the biggest impact on the Gators is one they are not playing in. If aTm beats UGA then the Gators will play aTm in the SECCG. As a 2-loss SEC Champion the Gators would have a pretty good shot at the playoffs but if they miss the SECCG there simply is no way that a 2-loss non-Champion is getting in.
#11 Bama 8-2:
In spite of their recent history of success I just can't see how Bama can get to the CFP from here. They close with an FCS opponent then a trip to a .500 Auburn team. Those aren't games that afford them much opportunity to impress the committee and they are already eliminated from contention for the SECCG so I think they are out in this scenario because, as I said regarding Florida, there simply is no way that a 2-loss non-Champion is getting in.
#12 Texas 8-2:
The Longhorns close with Baylor and TxTech who are each 3-4 in the B12 and unranked. They are at least in the race for a spot in the B12CG and if they get there and beat Oklahoma again they would have some really nice wins (they also beat #21 LSU OOC) but they would still be a 2-loss team.
#13 Utah 9-1:
The Utes close with two 2-5 PAC teams. In a recurring theme for the PAC, their major obstacle is SoS. Their OOC consisted of BYU, NIU, and an FCS team.
#14 Penn State 9-1:
The Nittany Lions close with a trip to Columbus to face #6 Ohio State than a home game against a Rutgers team that ELA projects to be 0-7. If they beat the Buckeyes or win the convoluted 3-way tie that will result tOSU, PSU, and M all finish 8-1 then they'll head to Indianapolis where
#8 Wisconsin will likely be waiting (Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue and Minnesota are all in contention for at least a share of the B1G-W).#15 MissSt 8-2:
Much like #11 Bama, the Bulldogs are eliminated from contention for the SECCG. They close with an FCS school then the Egg Bowl against a 1-6 Ole Miss team so they have no remaining opportunity to impress the committee.
#16 Michigan 8-2:
The Wolveirnes close with a trip to Bloomington to play Indiana then they host #6 Ohio State. If they win both of those and Ohio State beats Penn State then there is a chance that Michigan could make their inaugural appearance in the B1GCG where
#8 Wisconsin will likely be waiting (Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue and Minnesota are all in contention for at least a share of the B1G-W).#17 Notre Dame 8-2:
The Irish close with #20 BC at home then a 5-3/6-4 Stanford team on the road. Since they can't get to a CG they are likely out.
#18 Iowa State 8-2:
The Cyclones close with the two Kansas schools and per
@ELA 's scenario those two are last and second-to-last in the B12 so there isn't much chance to impress the committee there. If they make it to the B12CG and beat Oklahoma then they'd have a shot and the Iowa win helps but ELA has the Hawkeyes currently out of the rankings. OTOH the Hawkeyes are 5-2/7-3 with Illinois and Nebraska left so they could get back in.
#19 Fresno State 10-0:
The Bulldogs close with Nevada and at San Jose and they are both projected to be 2-4 in the MWC so Fresno State should win both. They have already clinched a berth in the MWCCG where they would likely play #25 Boise State. They did play USC and Minnesota OOC but
@ELA projects those teams to be unranked and about .500 or worse in their conferences so it might not help.
#20 Boston College 8-2:
A win at #17 Notre Dame would help but BC is already eliminated from the ACCCG so they can't make the CFP.
#21 LSU 7-3:
The Tigers were the only 2-loss team to play in a BCSNCG, could they be the first 3-loss team to make the CFP? I doubt it but the Tigers could still make the SECCG if they win out and UGA beats aTm. If they do that then beat Florida again in the SECCG they might have an argument.
#22 Miami 8-2:
The Hurricanes close at FIU and at DOOK. I think they have already clinched a spot in the ACCCG (I didn't check to see if they beat UVA). Assuming they get to the ACCCG they will likely face #1 Syracuse. Would a win over the nation's #1 team and an ACC Championship be enough to vault the Hurricanes into the CFP?
#23 - 25 are minor conference teams with a loss and without a plausible chance.
In the CFP era we have never gotten this deep into the season with this many teams still plausibly in the race. There are a LOT of compelling storylines starting at the top with the #2 Clemson Tigers likely out of the ACCCG picture and continuing all the way down to the #22 Miami Hurricanes who could potentially win the ACC Championship that Clemson probably can't.
I count the following as being plausibly in the race:
- #1 Syracuse: Win out and they are in.
- #2 Clemson: Win out and hope for chaos.
- #3 Oklahoma: Win out and they are in.
- #4 aTm: Win out and they are in.
- #5 UGA: Win out and they are in.
- #6 tOSU: Win out and they are *PROBABLY* in. They could theoretically end up behind Cuse, Clemson, OU, and either aTm or UGA but I think a 1-loss B1G Champion coming off of wins over #16 Michigan and #8 Wisconsin would get in over a non-Champion.
- #7 Washington: Win out and hope for some upsets.
- #8 Wisconsin: Win out and they are *PROBABLY* in.
- #9 Oregon: Win out and hope for some upsets.
- #10 Florida: Win out and root hard for aTm over UGA. As an 11-2 SEC Champ they would likely get in.
- #12 Texas: Win out and root hard for LSU to win the SEC.
- #13 Utah: Win out and hope for upsets.
- #14 Penn State: Win out and they are *PROBABLY* in. Winning out would include wins over #6 tOSU and (likely) #8 UW. That and a 12-1 record and a B1G Championship would probably do it.
- #16 Michigan: Root hard for tOSU against PSU, beat #6 tOSU, and hope for a winning tiebreaker in the likely 3-way tie with tOSU and PSU then win the B1GCG. 11-2 and a B1G Championship might do it.
- #18 Iowa State: Win out, hope the right things happen to get a slot in the B12CG against #3 OU, beat the Sooners, and hope that 11-2 and a B12 Championship is enough.
- #21 LSU: Root hard for UGA over aTm, beat aTm, beat #10 Florida in the SECCG then play the "the SEC can't be left out of the CFP" card and hope you get a shot as a 10-3 SEC Champion.
- #22 Miami: Win out and beat the crap out of #1 Syracuse in the ACCCG and hope that is enough.
